[Long Term Efficacy of Antiviral Therapy: Mortality and Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma]

The Epidemiology of Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Korea: 15-Year Analysis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to investigate the epidemiological changes in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and assess the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) over the past 15 years in a region endemic to hepatitis B virus (HBV).

METHODS

National Health Insurance Service claims data of hepatitis B patients spanning from 2007 to 2021 was utilized. To compare the characteristics of the hepatitis B group, a control group adjusted for age and gender through propensity score matching analysis was established.

RESULTS

The number of patients with CHB has consistently increased over the past 15 years. The average age of the CHB patient group has shown a yearly rise, while the prevalence of male dominance has gradually diminished. The proportions of hepatocellular carcinoma, liver cirrhosis, and decompensation have exhibited a declining pattern, whereas the proportion of liver transplants has continuously risen. Patients with CHB have demonstrated significantly higher medical and medication costs compared to the control group. Moreover, patients with CHB have shown a higher prevalence of comorbidities along with a significantly higher rate of concomitant medication usage. During the COVID period, the HBV group experienced a substantial decrease in the number of outpatient visits and overall medical costs compared to the control group.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiology of CHB has undergone significant changes over the past 15 years, encompassing shifts in prevalence, severity, medical costs, and comorbidities. Furthermore, the impact of COVID-19 has been observed to decrease healthcare utilization among patients with CHB when compared to controls.

Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patients

Predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a key clinical issue in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The aim of this study was to develop a precise and simple HCC risk score for up to 10 years. A total of 1895 CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were retrospectively recruited and randomized into derivation (n = 1239) and validation cohorts (n = 656). Variables proven to be independent risk factors for HCC in the derivation cohort were used to develop the prediction model. The ACCESS-HCC model included five variables (age, cirrhosis, consumption of ethanol, liver stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase). Areas under curves were 0.798, 0.762, and 0.883 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively, which were higher than those of other prediction models. The scores were categorized according to significantly different HCC incidences: 0-4, low; 5-8, intermediate; and 9-14, high-risk. The annual incidence rates were 0.5%, 3.2%, and 11.3%, respectively. The performance of this model was validated in an independent cohort. The ACCESS-HCC model shows improved long-term prediction and provides three distinct risk categories for HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. Further research is needed for external validation using larger cohorts.

A multi-centre study of trends in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma risk over time during long-term entecavir therapy

The risk of developing hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is reduced by antiviral therapy. Here, we evaluated the chronological trends in HCC development risk starting in 2007, when entecavir reimbursement was first initiated in South Korea. Treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving entecavir 0.5 mg/d were stratified into three groups according to entecavir start time: early (2007-2010), middle (2011-2012) and late (2013-2014) cohorts Among 2442 patients, cumulative probabilities of developing HCC after 1, 3 and 5 years were, respectively, 1.7%, 5.1%, and 8.2% (early cohort; n = 672); 1.5%, 5.1% and 8.9% (middle cohort; n = 757); and 1.2%, 5.3% and 10.6% (late cohort; n = 1013; P > .05 between each pair). Older age, male, positive hepatitis B e antigen, liver cirrhosis, Child-Pugh class B (vs A) and lower platelet count significantly predicted HCC development in univariate analysis (P < .001), whereas entecavir start time (early vs middle vs late cohorts) did not affect the risk of HCC development (P = .457). A multivariate analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.041), male gender (aHR = 2.069), liver cirrhosis (aHR = 3.771) and Child-Pugh class B (vs A, aHR = 1.548) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development, whereas higher platelet count was independently associated with a reduced risk of HCC development (aHR = 0.993; all P < .05). In conclusion, the risk of developing HCC among patients receiving entecavir in South Korea has been stable since 2007. To establish more effective HCC surveillance programs, further studies regarding the carcinogenic roles of nonviral factors are required.