Nomogram for predicting overall survival in children with neuroblastoma based on SEER database

Development and validation of a novel nomogram for predicting overall survival patients with neuroblastoma

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram specially for predicting overall survival (OS) for Chinese patients with neuroblastoma (NB).

METHODS

Patients with pathologically confirmed NB who were newly diagnosed and received treatments at our hospital from October 2013 to October 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. The nomogram for OS were built based on Cox regression analysis. The validation of the prognostic model was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs).

RESULTS

A total of 254 patients with NB were included in this study. They were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 178) and a validation cohort (n = 76) at a ratio of 7:3. Multivariate analyses revealed that prognostic variables significantly related to the OS were age at diagnosis, bone metastasis, hepatic metastasis, INSS stage, MYCN status and DNA ploidy. The nomogram was constructed based on above 6 factors. The C-index values of the nomogram for predicting 3-year and 5-year OS were 0.926 and 0.964, respectively. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between nomogram prediction and actual survival. The DCAs showed great clinical usefulness of the nomograms. Furthermore, patients with low-risk identified by our nomogram had much higher OS than those with high-risk (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram we constructed exhibited good predictive performance and could be used to assist clinicians in their decision-making process.

Effects of transcription factor SOX11 on the biological behavior of neuroblastoma cell and potential regulatory mechanism

Purpose

This study aimed to analyze the expression and prognosis of SRY-box transcription factor 11 (SOX11) in neuroblastoma (NB), as well as the biological function and potential regulatory mechanism of SOX11 in NB.

Methods

Public RNA sequencing was used to detect the expression level of SOX11. The Kaplan-Meier curve and hazard ratios (HR) were used to determine the prognostic value of SOX11 in NB. Functional analyses were performed using CCK8, wound healing assay, and transwell invasion assay. Finally, the potential target genes of SOX11 were predicted by Harmonizonme (Ma'ayan Laboratory) and Cistrome Data Browser (Cistrome Project) database to explore the potential molecular mechanism of SOX11 in NB.

Results

Compared with normal adrenal tissue, the expression of SOX11 in NB tissue was significantly upregulated. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that high expression of SOX11 was associated with poor prognosis in children with NB (HR, 1.719; P = 0.049). SOX11 knockdown suppressed the migration capacity of SK-N-SH cells but did not affect proliferation and invasion capacity. Enhancer of zeste homolog 2 (EZH2) may be a potential downstream target gene for the transcription factor SOX11 to play a role in NB.

Conclusion

The transcription factor SOX11 was significantly upregulated in NB. SOX11 knockdown suppressed the migration capacity of NB cell SK-N-SH. SOX11 may promote the progression of NB by targeting EZH2.

A novel clinical tool and risk stratification system for predicting the event-free survival of neuroblastoma patients: A TARGET-based study

Neuroblastoma (NB), considered the most common non-intracranial solid tumor in children, accounts for nearly 8% of pediatric malignancies. This study aimed to develop a simple and practical nomogram to predict event-free survival (EFS) in NB patients and establish a new risk stratification system. In this study, 763 patients primarily diagnosed with NB in the Therapeutically Applicable Research to Generate Effective Treatments (TARGET) database were included and randomly assigned to a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%) in a 7:3 ratio. First, the independent prognostic factors of EFS for NB patients were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Second, a nomogram was created based on these factors and was validated for calibration capability, discriminative, and clinical significance by C-curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis. Finally, a new risk stratification system was established for NB patients based on the nomogram. The univariate Cox analysis demonstrated that NB patients with age at diagnosis >318 days, International Neuroblastoma Staging System (INSS) stage 4, DNA diploidy, MYCN amplification status, and children oncology group (COG) high-risk group had a relatively poor prognosis. However, according to the multivariate Cox regression analysis, only age, INSS stage, and DNA ploidy were independent predictive factors in NB patients regarding EFS, and a nomogram was created based on these factors. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the ROC curves for the 3-, 5-, and 10-year EFS of this nomogram were 0.681, 0.706, and 0.720, respectively. Additionally, the AUC values of individual independent prognostic factors of EFS were lower than those of the nomogram, suggesting that the developed nomogram had a higher predictive reliability for prognosis. In addition, a new risk stratification system was developed to better stratify NB patients and provide clinical practitioners with a better reference for clinical decision-making. NB patients' EFS could be predicted more accurately and easily through the constructed nomogram and event-occurrence risk stratification system, allowing clinicians to better differentiate NB patients and establish individualized treatment plans to maximize patient benefits.

Development and validation of a nomogram based on common biochemical indicators for survival prediction of children with high-risk neuroblastoma: A valuable tool for resource-limited hospitals

BACKGROUND

Despite multiple attempts have been made to develop risk stratification within high-risk neuroblastoma (NB) patients (age of diagnosis ≥ 18 month-old with metastatic NB), the definition of "ultra high-risk NB" is still lack of consensus, and indicators for identifying this subgroup are still unclear. This study aimed to develop a nomogram based on easy-to-obtain blood-derived biofactors for identifying ultra high-risk NB patients with highest risk of death within 3 or 5 years.

METHODS

One hundred sixty-seven NB patients who treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between 2015 and 2023 were recruited and clustered randomly into training and validation cohorts (116 and 51 cases, respectively). Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were performed in training set to screen independent prognostic indicators for constructing nomogram model of predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). The discrimination power of the nomogram in training and validation sets were assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. Based on the risk score obtained from nomogram model, the prognostic accuracy of 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates in training and validation cohorts were further evaluated using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC).

RESULTS

Through univariate and multivariate Cox analysis, independent prognostic indicators, including serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and albumin (ALB), were identified in training set, and used to establish a nomogram model. The model showed good discrimination power with C-index in training cohort being 0.706 (95%CI: 0.633-0.788). According to the cut-point calculated based on the established nomogram, patients with a nomogram score > 34 points could be stratified to ultra high-risk NB subgroup, and this subgroup had poorer OS than those in non-ultra one (p < 0.001). AUC values of ROC curves for 3- and 5-year OS rates in the training set were 0.758 and 0.756, respectively. Moreover, based on the cut-point score (34 points) developed in training set, The model also showed good discrimination power with C-index of 0.773 (95%CI: 0.664-0.897) and powerful prognostic accuracy of AUC for 3- and 5-year OS rates being 0.825 and 0.826, respectively, in validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a simple-to-use nomogram based on common laboratory indicators to identify the subgroup of ultra high-risk NB before treatment, providing these children even from developing countries or regions access to intensified multimodal treatments earlier and thus improving their long-term outcome.

A nomogram for the preoperative estimation of neuroblastoma risk despite inadequate biopsy information

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

If the preoperative pathological information is inadequate, a risk classification may not be able to be determined for some patients with neuroblastoma. Our objectives were to include imaging factors, serum biomarkers, and demographic factors in a nomogram to distinguish high-risk patients before surgical resection based on the COG classification.

METHOD

A total of 106 patients were included in the study. Of these, patients with clinicopathologically confirmed neuroblastoma at Tianjin Children's Hospital from January 2013 to November 2021 formed the training cohort (n = 82) for nomogram development, and those patients from January 2010 to December 2013 formed the validation cohort (n = 24) to confirm the model's performance.

RESULT

On multivariate analysis of the primary cohort, independent factors for high risk were the presence of distant metastasis (p = 0.004), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (p = 0.009), and tumor volume (p = 0.033), which were all selected into the nomogram. The calibration curve for probability showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.95 95% [0.916-0.99]. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort still gave good discrimination and good calibration.

CONCLUSION

Three independent factors including the presence of distant metastasis, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and tumor volume are associated with high-risk neuroblastoma and selected into the nomogram. The novel nomogram has the flexibility to apply a clinically suitable cutoff to identify high-risk neuroblastoma patients despite inadequate preoperative pathological information. The nomogram can allow these patients to be offered suitable induction chemotherapy regimens and surgical plans.

LEVELS OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in pediatric neuroblastoma patients

Background

The term "neuroblastoma (NB)" refers to a type of solid pediatric tumor that develops from undivided neuronal cells. According to the American Cancer Society report, between 700 and 800 children under the age of 14 are diagnosed with NB every year in the United States (U.S.). About 6% of all cases of pediatric cancer in the U.S. are caused by NB. NB is the most frequent malignancy in children younger than 1 year; however, it is rarely found in those over the age of 10 and above.

Objective

To accurately predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in children with NB, this research developed and validated an all-encompassing prediction model.

Methods

The present retrospective study used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to collect information on 1,448 individuals diagnosed with NB between 1998 and 2019. The pool of potentially eligible patients was randomly split into two groups, a training cohort (N = 1,013) and a validation cohort (N = 435). Using multivariate Cox stepwise regression, we were able to identify the components that independently predicted outcomes. The accuracy of this nomogram was measured employing the consistency index (C-index), area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision-curve analysis (DCA).

Results

In this study, we found that age, primary location, tumor size, summary stage, chemotherapy, and surgery were all significant predictors of CSS outcomes and integrated them into our model accordingly. The C-index for the validation cohort was 0.812 (95% CI: 0.773-0.851), while for the training cohort it was 0.795 (95% CI: 0.767-0.823). The C-indexes and AUC values show that the nomogram is able to discriminate well enough. The calibration curves suggest that the nomogram is quite accurate. Also, the DCA curves demonstrated the prediction model's value.

Conclusion

A novel nomogram was developed and validated in this work to assess personalized CSS in NB patients, and it has been indicated that this model could be a useful tool for calculating NB patients' survival on an individual basis and enhancing therapeutic decision-making.

A nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival of intermediate and high-risk neuroblastoma

This study aimed to confirm the independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) in intermediate and high-risk neuroblastoma (NB) patients and set up an effective nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of NB. A total of 212 children with intermediate- and high-risk neuroblastoma, who had ever achieved complete remission (CR) or very good partial remission (VGPR) after standardized treatment in this hospital, were chosen as study objects. After retrospective analysis of the clinical data, Cox regression model was used to explore the factors related to the recurrence of neuroblastoma, to determine the variables to construct the Nomogram. The consistency index would predict the accuracy of this nomogram. RFS rate in 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year was 0.811, 0.662, 0.639, and 0.604, respectively. Children with MYCN amplification had a higher neuron-specific enolase (NSE) value (P = 0.031) at the initial diagnosis than MYCN non-amplification. The univariate analysis predicted that increased vanillylmandelic acid (VMA) and NSE value and dehydrogenase (LDH) > 1000 U/L were important adverse factors for the recurrence of NB. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that age at diagnosis, tumor localization, MYCN state, histologic subtype, and tumor capsule were significantly associated with RFS (all P values < 0.05). Nomograms were established for predicting the recurrence of NB according to the Cox regression analysis. Internal verification by the Bootstrap method showed that the prediction of the nomogram's consistency index (C-index) was 0.824 (P = 0.023).   Conclusion: Age at diagnosis, tumor localization, MYCN state, histologic category, and tumor capsule were independent risk factors for the recurrence of NB. The nomogram model could accurately predict the recurrence of children with neuroblastoma. What is Known: • The prognoses of neuroblastoma (NB) could vary greatly due to the high heterogeneity, the 5-year survival rate of low-risk NB exceeded 90%, while the 5-year survival rate of children in the intermediate and high-risk groups was not satisfactory.. What is New: • Increased vanillylmandelic acid (VMA) and neuron-specific enolase (NSE) value, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)>1000U/L were important adverse factors for the recurrence of NB. • NSE value was more valuable for predicting NB recurrence.

Prognostic impact of tumor size on patients with neuroblastoma in a SEER-based study

Objective

The prognostic value of tumor size in neuroblastoma (NB) patients has not been fully evaluated. Our purpose is to elucidate the prognostic significance of tumor size in surgery performed on neuroblastoma patients.

Methods

Neuroblastoma patients diagnosed from 2004 to 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) for the study. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify risk factors and the independent prognostic influences of tumor size on NB patients. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed through univariate Cox regression analysis. To determine the optimal cutoff value of tumor size, we first divided the cohort into three groups (≤5 cm, 5–10 cm, >10 cm). Subsequently, the patients were divided into two groups repeatedly, with tumor size at 1 cm intervals. The cutoff value that maximized prognostic outcome difference was selected. Furthermore, we performed the Kaplan–Meier methods to visually present differences in prognosis between the optimal tumor size cutoff value in different subgroups.

Results

A total of 591 NB patients who met the inclusion criteria were selected from the SEER database in this study. Cox analysis showed that age >1 year (HR = 2.42, p < 0.0001), originate from adrenal site (HR = 1.7, p = 0.014), distant stage (HR = 6.4, p < 0.0001), undifferentiated grade (HR = 1.94, p = 0.002), and large tumor size (HR = 1.5, p < 0.0001) independently predicted poor prognosis. For tumor size, there were significant differences in tumor size distribution in different ages, tumor grade, disease stage, and primary site subgroup but not in sex, race, and histology subgroup. Furthermore, both univariate (HR = 4.96, 95% CI 2.31–10.63, p < 0.0001) and multivariable analysis (HR = 2.8, 95% CI 1.29–6.08, p < 0.0001) indicated the optimal cutoff value of tumor size was 4 cm for overall survival of NB patients. Using a 4 cm of tumor size cutoff in subgroups, we found that it can identify poor prognosis patients whatever their age or primary site. Interestingly, tumor size of 4 cm cutoff can only identify unfavorable NB patients with diagnosis at distant‐stage disease, or differentiated grade tumor, but not with regional and local or undifferentiated tumor.

Conclusions

Tumor size is first to be recognized as a key prognostic factor of neuroblastoma patients and a cutoff value >4 cm might predict poor prognosis, which should be included in the evaluation of prognostic factors for NB.

Perfusion-Based Bioreactor Culture and Isothermal Microcalorimetry for Preclinical Drug Testing with the Carbonic Anhydrase Inhibitor SLC-0111 in Patient-Derived Neuroblastoma

Neuroblastoma is a rare disease. Rare are also the possibilities to test new therapeutic options for neuroblastoma in clinical trials. Despite the constant need to improve therapy and outcomes for patients with advanced neuroblastoma, clinical trials currently only allow for testing few substances in even fewer patients. This increases the need to improve and advance preclinical models for neuroblastoma to preselect favorable candidates for novel therapeutics. Here we propose the use of a new patient-derived 3D slice-culture perfusion-based 3D model in combination with rapid treatment evaluation using isothermal microcalorimetry exemplified with treatment with the novel carbonic anhydrase IX and XII (CAIX/CAXII) inhibitor SLC-0111. Patient samples showed a CAIX expression of 18% and a CAXII expression of 30%. Corresponding with their respective CAIX expression patterns, the viability of SH-EP cells was significantly reduced upon treatment with SLC-0111, while LAN1 cells were not affected. The inhibitory effect on SH-SY5Y cells was dependent on the induction of CAIX expression under hypoxia. These findings corresponded to thermogenesis of the cells. Patient-derived organotypic slice cultures were treated with SLC-0111, which was highly effective despite heterogeneity of CAIX/CAXII expression. Thermogenesis, in congruence with the findings of the histological observations, was significantly reduced in SLC-0111-treated samples. In order to extend the evaluation time, we established a perfusion-based approach for neuroblastoma tissue in a 3D perfusion-based bioreactor system. Using this system, excellent tissue quality with intact tumor cells and stromal structure in neuroblastoma tumors can be maintained for 7 days. The system was successfully used for consecutive drug response monitoring with isothermal microcalorimetry. The described approach for drug testing, relying on an advanced 3D culture system combined with a rapid and highly sensitive metabolic assessment, can facilitate development of personalized treatment strategies for neuroblastoma.

Clinical Characteristics and Survival Outcomes in Neuroblastoma With Bone Metastasis Based on SEER Database Analysis

Purpose

Clinical features and survival analysis of neuroblastoma (NB) are well explored. However, clinical research of NB patients with bone metastasis is rarely reported. Thus, the current study was performed to analyze the clinical features, survival outcome, and risk factors in those patients.

Materials and Methods

We reviewed the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to select cases diagnosed with NB with bone metastasis from 2010 to 2016. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were analyzed through univariate Cox regression analysis. Subsequently, we performed multivariate analysis to determine independent predictors of survival. The Kaplan–Meier method was applied to intuitively show differences in prognostic value between independent risk factors.

Results

We finally identified 393 NB patients with bone metastasis who were selected for survival analysis. Nearly half of the patients (47.3%) were aged >3 years. The adrenal gland was the primary tumor site, accounting for approximately two thirds of cases (66.2%). The 5-year OS and CSS rates of all patients were 62.1% and 64.1%, respectively. The univariate analysis indicated that age, lung metastasis, and tumor size were significantly associated with OS and CSS. Based on the multivariable analysis, age at 2 and 3 years, lung metastasis, and tumor size >10 cm remained significant negative predictors of OS and CSS.

Conclusion

For NB patients with bone metastasis, three independent prognostic risk factors (age, lung metastasis, and tumor size) are helpful to clinicians for predicting prognosis and guiding treatment. Reasonable treatment modalities for these patients should be further investigated to prolong survival.

Perspective on Similarities and Possible Overlaps of Congenital Disease Formation-Exemplified on a Case of Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia and Neuroblastoma in a Neonate

The coincidence of two rare diseases such as congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) and neuroblastoma is exceptional. With an incidence of around 2–3:10,000 and 1:8000 for either disease occurring on its own, the chance of simultaneous presentation of both pathologies at birth is extremely low. Unfortunately, the underlying processes leading to congenital malformation and neonatal tumors are not yet thoroughly understood. There are several hypotheses revolving around the formation of CDH and neuroblastoma. The aim of our study was to put the respective hypotheses of disease formation as well as known factors in this process into perspective regarding their similarities and possible overlaps of congenital disease formation. We present the joint occurrence of these two rare diseases based on a patient presentation and immunochemical prognostic marker evaluation. The aim of this manuscript is to elucidate possible similarities in the pathogeneses of both disease entities. Discussed are the role of toxins, cell differentiation, the influence of retinoic acid and NMYC as well as of hypoxia. The detailed discussion reveals that some of the proposed pathophysiological mechanisms of both malformations have common aspects. Especially disturbances of the retinoic acid pathway and NMYC expression can influence and disrupt cell differentiation in either disease. Due to the rarity of both diseases, interdisciplinary efforts and multi-center studies are needed to investigate the reasons for congenital malformations and their interlinkage with neonatal tumor disease.