The association between physical activity and atrial fibrillation applying the Heaviside function in survival analysis: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Impact of ventricular assist device use on pediatric heart transplant waitlist mortality: Analysis of the scientific registry of transplant recipients database

BACKGROUND

Children awaiting heart transplant (Tx) have a high risk of death due to donor organ scarcity. Historically, ventricular assist devices (VADs) reduced waitlist mortality, prompting increased VAD use. We sought to determine whether the VAD survival benefit persists in the current era.

METHODS

Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified patients listed for Tx between 3/22/2016 and 9/1/2020. We compared characteristics of VAD and non-VAD groups at Tx listing. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for 1-year waitlist mortality.

RESULTS

Among 5054 patients, 764 (15%) had a VAD at Tx listing. The VAD group was older with more mechanical ventilation and renal impairment. Unadjusted waitlist mortality was similar between groups; the curves crossed ~90 days after listing (p = .55). In multivariable analysis, infant age (HR 2.77, 95%CI 2.13-3.60), Black race (HR 1.57, 95%CI 1.31-1.88), congenital heart disease (HR 1.23, 95%CI 1.04-1.46), renal impairment (HR 2.67, 95%CI 2.19-3.26), inotropes (HR 1.28, 95%CI 1.09-1.52), and mechanical ventilation (HR 2.23, 95%CI 1.84-2.70) were associated with 1-year waitlist mortality. VADs were not associated with mortality in the first 90 waitlist days but were protective for those waiting ≥90 days (HR 0.43, 95%CI 0.26-0.71).

CONCLUSIONS

In the current era, VADs reduce waitlist mortality, but only for those waitlisted ≥90 days. The differential effect by race, size, and VAD type is less clear. These findings suggest that Tx listing without VAD may be reasonable if a short waitlist time is anticipated, but VADs may benefit those expected to wait >90 days.

Leisure-time and occupational physical activity and risk of cardiovascular disease incidence: a systematic-review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Physical activity has benefits for the cardiovascular system, however, what levels and types of activity provide optimal cardiovascular health is unclear. We aimed to determine the level of physical activity that has the most benefits against cardiovascular diseases (CVD).

METHODS

PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for prospective cohort studies on leisure-time (LTPA) or occupational physical activity (OPA) as the exposure and major types of CVD (total CVD, coronary heart disease [CHD], stroke, and atrial fibrillation [AF]) incidence as the outcome. Risk of bias of studies was evaluated using the ROBINS-I tool. Summary hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using random-effects pairwise model.

RESULTS

A total of 103 studies were included in the analysis. The highest versus the lowest LTPA was associated with a lower risk of overall CVD (HR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.77-0.86), CHD (HR = 0.83; 0.79-0.88), and stroke (HR = 0.83; 0.79-0.88), but not AF (HR = 0.98; 0.92-1.05). Linear dose-response analyses showed a 10%, 12%, 9%, and 8% risk reduction in CVD, CHD, stroke, and AF incidence, respectively, for every 20 MET-hours/week increase in LTPA. In nonlinear dose-response analyses, there were inverse associations up to 20 MET-hours/week with 19% and 20% reduction in CVD and CHD risk, and up to 25 MET-hours/week with 22% reduction in stroke, with no further risk reduction at higher LTPA levels. For AF, there was a U-shaped nonlinear association with the maximum 8% risk reduction at 10 MET-hours/week of LTPA. Higher levels of OPA were not associated with risk of CVD, CHD, stroke, or AF.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, results showed an inverse dose-response relationship between LTPA and risk of CVD, CHD, stroke, and AF. Running was the most beneficial LTPA but the risk was similar among various LTPA intensities. OPA showed no benefits in total or any type of CVD.

Weekly physical activity and incident atrial fibrillation in females - A dose-response meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

For years, physical activity (PA) has been considered a mixed blessing in terms of the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Previous analyses have had equivocal results regarding the cut-off of PA level beyond which AF risk increases, if such a limit really does exist. Data regarding females in particular have been scarce.

METHODS

We performed a dose-response meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between weekly PA and the risk for AF in females. Major electronic databases were searched for studies assessing the association between leisure time PA and the risk for incident AF in females from the general population. The linearity of the dose-response curve was assessed using the restricted cubic spline model.

RESULTS

A total of 15 studies, which involved 1,821,422 females, were included in the final analysis. AF incidence was 3.7%. Dose-response analysis revealed an inverse nonlinear relationship between weekly PA and the risk for incident AF (p for linearity <0.0001). No significant heterogeneity was documented (I² = 37%). Cautious interpretation is needed for PA exceeding 50 metabolic equivalents of task- hours per week (METs- h/w), due to limited available data for these high levels of PA.

CONCLUSION

According to this analysis, physicians can safely advise females to perform up to 50METs- h/w of moderate or vigorous PA, to reduce the risk for future AF. Interestingly, significant benefit can be attained even at low levels of regular weekly PA.

Self-Reported Walking Pace and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

Background: In observational studies, the self-reported walking pace has been associated with the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, whether those associations indicate causal links remains unclear. We performed two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the causal effect of walking pace on several CVD outcomes, including atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), any stroke, ischemic stroke (IS), and IS subtypes. Methods: Genetic variants associated with self-reported walking pace were selected as instrumental variables (IVs) from the latest genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Summary-level data for outcomes were obtained from the corresponding GWAS and the FinnGen consortium. The random-effects inverse variance weighted (IVW) method was used as the main MR analysis, supplemented by replication analyses using data from the FinnGen. To explore the effect of pleiotropy due to adiposity-related traits, we further conducted MR analyses by excluding the adiposity-related IVs and regression-based multivariable MR adjusting for body mass index (BMI). Results: The MR results indicated significant inverse associations of self-reported walking pace with risks of AF [odds ratio (OR), 0.577; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.442, 0.755; p = 5.87 × 10-5], HF (OR, 0.307; 95% CI, 0.229, 0.413; p = 5.31 × 10-15), any stroke (OR, 0.540; 95% CI, 0.388, 0.752; p = 2.63 × 10-4) and IS (OR, 0.604; 95% CI, 0.427, 0.853; p = 0.004) and suggestive inverse association of self-reported walking pace with cardioembolic stroke (CES) (OR, 0.492; 95% CI, 0.259, 0.934; p = 0.030). Similar results were replicated in the FinnGen consortium and persisted in the meta-analysis. However, there was no causality between walking pace and large artery stroke (OR, 0.676; 95% CI, 0.319, 1.434; p = 0.308) or small vessel stroke (OR, 0.603; 95% CI, 0.270, 1.349; p = 0.218). When excluding adiposity-related IVs and adjusting for BMI, the associations for HF and any stroke did not change substantially, whereas the associations for AF, IS, and CES were weakened. Conclusion: Our findings suggested that genetically predicted increasing walking pace exerted beneficial effects on AF, HF, any stroke, IS, and CES. Adiposity might partially mediate the effect of walking pace on AF, IS, and CES.

Sex-Specific Exposure-Effect Relationship Between Physical Activity and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the General Population: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of 16 Prospective Studies

Background: Since evidence regarding the relationship between physical activity (PA) and atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence is inconsistent among studies, we performed a dose-response meta-analysis to comprehensively evaluate the exposure-effect association between PA and incident AF and the potential sex difference in the general population. Methods: The PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible studies published up to July 2020 (PROSPERO: CRD42018091692). The non-linear or linear exposure-effect relationship between PA and AF was examined using the robust error meta-regression method. Results: A total of 16 prospective studies involving 1,449,017 individuals and 39,884 AF cases were included. We observed an inverse non-linear association between PA level and incident AF (I ² = 0%, p _{non-linearity} < 0.001). In the linear model, a 5 metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-h/week increase in PA was associated with a decreased risk of AF [risk ratio (RR) = 0.992, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.988-0.996, I ² = 0%]. In the sex-stratified analysis, we observed an inverse non-linear relationship between PA level and AF risk in females (I ² = 90%, p _{non-linearity} < 0.0001) but not in males (I ² = 0%, p _{non-linearity} = 0.40). In the linear model, a 5 MET-h/week increase in PA was associated with a reduced risk of AF in females (RR = 0.982, 95% CI: 0.975-0.989, I ² = 71%) but not in males (RR = 0.998, 95% CI: 0.994-1.002, I ² = 0%), with a significant interaction observed between the two groups (p _interaction < 0.0001). Conclusion: There was an inverse non-linear relationship between PA level and incident AF in the general population. The beneficial effect of PA in reducing AF risk might be predominantly observed in females.