Markov models for clinical decision-making in radiation oncology: A systematic review

The intrinsic stochasticity of patients' response to treatment is a major consideration for clinical decision-making in radiation therapy. Markov models are powerful tools to capture this stochasticity and render effective treatment decisions. This paper provides an overview of the Markov models for clinical decision analysis in radiation oncology. A comprehensive literature search was conducted within MEDLINE using PubMed, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Only studies published from 2000 to 2023 were considered. Selected publications were summarized in two categories: (i) studies that compare two (or more) fixed treatment policies using Monte Carlo simulation and (ii) studies that seek an optimal treatment policy through Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Relevant to the scope of this study, 61 publications were selected for detailed review. The majority of these publications (n = 56) focused on comparative analysis of two or more fixed treatment policies using Monte Carlo simulation. Classifications based on cancer site, utility measures and the type of sensitivity analysis are presented. Five publications considered MDPs with the aim of computing an optimal treatment policy; a detailed statement of the analysis and results is provided for each work. As an extension of Markov model-based simulation analysis, MDP offers a flexible framework to identify an optimal treatment policy among a possibly large set of treatment policies. However, the applications of MDPs to oncological decision-making have been understudied, and the full capacity of this framework to render complex optimal treatment decisions warrants further consideration.

The perils of adapting to dose errors in radiation therapy

We consider adaptive robust methods for lung cancer that are also dose-reactive, wherein the treatment is modified after each treatment session to account for the dose delivered in prior treatment sessions. Such methods are of interest because they potentially allow for errors in the delivered dose to be corrected as the treatment progresses, thereby ensuring that the tumor receives a sufficient dose at the end of the treatment. We show through a computational study with real lung cancer patient data that while dose reaction is beneficial with respect to the final dose distribution, it may lead to exaggerated daily underdose and overdose relative to non-reactive methods that grows as the treatment progresses. However, by combining dose reaction with a mechanism for updating an estimate of the uncertainty, the magnitude of this growth can be mitigated substantially. The key finding of this paper is that reacting to dose errors – an adaptation strategy that is both simple and intuitively appealing – may backfire and lead to treatments that are clinically unacceptable.

An Automatic Approach for Satisfying Dose-Volume Constraints in Linear Fluence Map Optimization for IMPT

Prescriptions for radiation therapy are given in terms of dose-volume constraints (DVCs). Solving the fluence map optimization (FMO) problem while satisfying DVCs often requires a tedious trial-and-error for selecting appropriate dose control parameters on various organs. In this paper, we propose an iterative approach to satisfy DVCs using a multi-objective linear programming (LP) model for solving beamlet intensities. This algorithm, starting from arbitrary initial parameter values, gradually updates the values through an iterative solution process toward optimal solution. This method finds appropriate parameter values through the trade-off between OAR sparing and target coverage to improve the solution. We compared the plan quality and the satisfaction of the DVCs by the proposed algorithm with two nonlinear approaches: a nonlinear FMO model solved by using the L-BFGS algorithm and another approach solved by a commercial treatment planning system (Eclipse 8.9). We retrospectively selected from our institutional database five patients with lung cancer and one patient with prostate cancer for this study. Numerical results show that our approach successfully improved target coverage to meet the DVCs, while trying to keep corresponding OAR DVCs satisfied. The LBFGS algorithm for solving the nonlinear FMO model successfully satisfied the DVCs in three out of five test cases. However, there is no recourse in the nonlinear FMO model for correcting unsatisfied DVCs other than manually changing some parameter values through trial and error to derive a solution that more closely meets the DVC requirements. The LP-based heuristic algorithm outperformed the current treatment planning system in terms of DVC satisfaction. A major strength of the LP-based heuristic approach is that it is not sensitive to the starting condition.

Intensity modulated radiation therapy with field rotation--a time-varying fractionation study

This paper proposes a novel mathematical approach to the beam selection problem in intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) planning. The approach allows more beams to be used over the course of therapy while limiting the number of beams required in any one session. In the proposed field rotation method, several sets of beams are interchanged throughout the treatment to allow a wider selection of beam angles than would be possible with fixed beam orientations. The choice of beamlet intensities and the number of identical fractions for each set are determined by a mixed integer linear program that controls jointly for the distribution per fraction and the cumulative dose distribution delivered to targets and critical structures. Trials showed the method allowed substantial increases in the dose objective and/or sparing of normal tissues while maintaining cumulative and fraction size limits. Trials for a head and neck site showed gains of 25%-35% in the objective (average tumor dose) and for a thoracic site gains were 7%-13%, depending on how strict the fraction size limits were set. The objective did not rise for a prostate site significantly, but the tolerance limits on normal tissues could be strengthened with the use of multiple beam sets.