Assessing Potable Water Quality and Identifying Areas of Waterborne Diarrheal and Fluorosis Health Risks Using Spatial Interpolation in Peshawar, Pakistan

Waterborne diseases have become one of the major public health concerns worldwide. This study is aimed to investigate and develop spatial distribution mapping of the potable water quality parameters in the city of Peshawar, Pakistan. A total of 108 water samples collected across the entire study area were subjected to physio-chemical and biological analyses. Tested parameters included pH, turbidity, temperature, fluoride concentration levels, and bacterial counts (faecal coliforms). Inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation in geographic information systems (GIS) was used for spatial analysis. Test results revealed that 48% of water samples had faecal coliforms count (per 100 mL) greater than World Health Organization (WHO) minimum limits, while 31% of samples had fluoride concentrations in excess of the WHO maximum guide values. Spatial distribution mapping was developed for faecal coliforms count and fluoride ion concentration using ArcGIS to highlight the high-risk settlements in the study area. Results showed that around 20% area under faecal coliforms and approximately 33% area based on fluoride concentrations fall under the need for treatment category. The pH and turbidity were found in compliance with WHO desirable limits. The sanitary inspection score significantly depicted that ineffective multi-barrier approaches consequently deteriorated the water quality at the consumer’s end. Findings from the present study shall be useful to policymakers for adopting necessary remedial measures before it severely affects public health.

Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan

Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change.