Quantifying intraspecific variation in host resistance and tolerance to a lethal pathogen

Testing for intraspecific variation for host tolerance or resistance in wild populations is important for informing conservation decisions about captive breeding, translocation, and disease treatment. Here, we test the importance of tolerance and resistance in multiple populations of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) against Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the amphibian fungal pathogen responsible for the greatest host biodiversity loss due to disease. Boreal toads have severely declined in Colorado (CO) due to Bd, but toad populations challenged with Bd in western Wyoming (WY) appear to be less affected. We used a common garden infection experiment to expose post-metamorphic toads sourced from four populations (2 in CO and 2 in WY) to Bd and monitored changes in mass, pathogen burden and survival for 8 weeks. We used a multi-state modelling approach to estimate weekly survival and transition probabilities between infected and cleared states, reflecting a dynamic infection process that traditional approaches fail to capture. We found that WY boreal toads are more tolerant to Bd infection with higher survival probabilities than those in CO when infected with identical pathogen burdens. WY toads also appeared more resistant to Bd with a higher probability of infection clearance and an average of 5 days longer to reach peak infection burdens. Our results demonstrate strong intraspecific differences in tolerance and resistance that likely contribute to why population declines vary regionally across this species. Our multi-state framework allowed us to gain inference on typically hidden disease processes when testing for host tolerance or resistance. Our findings demonstrate that describing an entire host species as 'tolerant' or 'resistant' (or lack thereof) is unwise without testing for intraspecific variation.

Evaluating density-weighted connectivity of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Glacier National Park with spatial capture-recapture models

BACKGROUND

Improved understanding of wildlife population connectivity among protected area networks can support effective planning for the persistence of wildlife populations in the face of land use and climate change. Common approaches to estimating connectivity often rely on small samples of individuals without considering the spatial structure of populations, leading to limited understanding of how individual movement links to demography and population connectivity. Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a framework to formally connect inference about individual movement, connectivity, and population density, but few studies have applied this approach to empirical data to support connectivity planning.

METHODS

We used mark-recapture data collected from 924 genetic detections of 598 American black bears (Ursus americanus) in 2004 with SCR ecological distance models to simultaneously estimate density, landscape resistance to movement, and population connectivity in Glacier National Park northwest Montana, USA. We estimated density and movement parameters separately for males and females and used model estimates to calculate predicted density-weighted connectivity surfaces.

RESULTS

Model results indicated that landscape structure influences black bear density and space use in Glacier. The mean density estimate was 16.08 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 12.52-20.6) for females and 9.27 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 7.70-11.14) for males. Density increased with forest cover for both sexes. For male black bears, density decreased at higher grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) densities. Drainages, valley bottoms, and riparian vegetation decreased estimates of landscape resistance to movement for male and female bears. For males, forest cover also decreased estimated resistance to movement, but a transportation corridor bisecting the study area strongly increased resistance to movement presenting a barrier to connectivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Density-weighed connectivity surfaces highlighted areas important for population connectivity that were distinct from areas with high potential connectivity. For black bears in Glacier and surrounding landscapes, consideration of both vegetation and valley topography could inform the placement of underpasses along the transportation corridor in areas characterized by both high population density and potential connectivity. Our study demonstrates that the SCR ecological distance model can provide biologically realistic, spatially explicit predictions to support movement connectivity planning across large landscapes.

Detectability and impact of repetitive surveys on threatened West African crocodylians

West African crocodylians are among the most threatened and least studied crocodylian species globally. Assessing population status and establishing a basis for population monitoring is the highest priority action for this region. Monitoring of crocodiles is influenced by many factors that affect detectability, including environmental variables and individual- or population-level wariness. We investigated how these factors affect detectability and counts of the critically endangered Mecistops cataphractus and the newly recognized Crocodylus suchus. We implemented 195 repetitive surveys at 38 sites across Côte d'Ivoire between 2014 and 2019. We used an occupancy-based approach and a count-based GLMM analysis to determine the effect of environmental and anthropogenic variables on detection and modeled crocodile wariness over repetitive surveys. Despite their rarity and level of threat, detection probability of both species was relatively high (0.75 for M. cataphractus and 0.81 for C. suchus), but a minimum of two surveys were required to infer absence of either species with 90% confidence. We found that detection of M. cataphractus was significantly negatively influenced by fishing net encounter rate, while high temperature for the previous 48 h of the day of the survey increased C. suchus detection. Precipitation and aquatic vegetation had significant negative and positive influence, respectively, on M. cataphractus counts and showed the opposite effect for C. suchus counts. We also found that fishing encounter rate had a significant negative effect on C. suchus counts. Interestingly, survey repetition did not generally affect wariness for either species, though there was some indication that at least M. cataphractus was more wary by the fourth replicate. These results are informative for designing future survey and monitoring protocols for these threatened crocodylians in West Africa and for other endangered crocodylians globally.

A novel mark-recapture-recovery survey using genetic sampling for polar bears Ursus maritimus in Baffin Bay

Changes in sea-ice dynamics are affecting polar bears Ursus maritimus across their circumpolar range, which highlights the importance of periodic demographic assessments to inform management and conservation. We used genetic mark-recapture-recovery to derive estimates of abundance and survival for the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear subpopulation—the first time this method has been used successfully for this species. Genetic data from tissue samples we collected via biopsy darting were combined with historical physical capture and harvest recovery data. The combined data set consisted of 1410 genetic samples (2011-2013), 914 physical captures (1993-1995, 1997), and 234 harvest returns of marked bears (1993-2013). The estimate of mean subpopulation abundance was 2826 (95% CI = 2284-3367) in 2012-2013. Estimates of annual survival (mean ± SE) were 0.90 ± 0.05 and 0.78 ± 0.06 for females and males age ≥2 yr, respectively. The proportion of total mortality of adult females and males that was attributed to legal harvest was 0.16 ± 0.05 and 0.26 ± 0.06, respectively. Remote sensing sea-ice data, telemetry data, and spatial distribution of onshore sampling indicated that polar bears were more likely to use offshore sea-ice habitat during the 1990s sampling period compared to the 2010s. Furthermore, in the 1990s, sampling of deep fjords and inland areas was limited, and no offshore sampling occurred in either time period, which precluded comparisons of abundance between the 1993-1997 and 2011-2013 study periods. Our findings demonstrate that genetic sampling can be a practical method for demographic assessment of polar bears over large spatial and temporal scales.

Modelos de ocupación para datos de cámaras trampa

El uso de las cámaras trampa (CT) en la investigación de fauna silvestre puede generar conclusiones sesgadas cuando la detectabilidad imperfecta de especies no es considerada. Herramientas analíticas como los modelos de ocupación permiten estimar simultáneamente parámetros ecológicos corregidos por la probabilidad de detección. Sin embargo, es necesario implementar e interpretar de manera correcta los parámetros estimados por estos modelos para obtener inferencias con sentido biológico. Este trabajo presenta un marco conceptual base para diseñar de manera apropiada un análisis de ocupación por medio de datos de CT. Se discuten y se señalan recomendaciones generales para la definición de los elementos del modelo, el diseño del muestreo, así como estrategias de modelamiento estadísticos apropiadas dependiendo de los objetivos del estudio, las características de la especie y el tipo de datos obtenidos. Las decisiones tomadas por el investigador para definir cada uno de los componentes del modelo deben considerar la escala adecuada para que el fenómeno de estudio tenga sentido biológico. De esta manera, es posible generar inferencias y conclusiones robustas a partir de información de CT, lo que permite avanzar en el entendimiento de los mecanismos que subyacen a la ecología espacial de fauna silvestre y por lo tanto en su conservación.

Wood Turtle (Glyptemys insculpta) nest protection reduces depredation and increases success, but annual variation influences its effectiveness

Habitat loss is the leading cause of species extinctions and is especially detrimental to habitat specialists. Freshwater turtles require specific habitat types at different points in their life cycle; notably, the loss of nesting habitat has led to increased nest depredation and adult mortality. In response, conservationists have implemented nest protection and habitat restoration programs to recover declining populations. Although assumed to increase nest survival, effectiveness of these methods has not been rigorously quantified. We located Wood Turtle (Glyptemys insculpta (Le Conte, 1830)) nests in Wisconsin (USA) and conducted two analyses — logistic regression and logistic exposure — to investigate the influence of management actions and environmental factors on nest survival. The depredation rate decreased by 47% for protected nests and declined as nests aged; the success rate increased by 28% for protected nests and increased for nests in areas with fewer roads. We found high annual variation in success, and although weather variables were not predictive, likely due to their coarse scale, we posit that this inter-annual variation was driven by variation in weather conditions. Our results suggest that nest protection is effective at increasing nest survival, but future efforts should span multiple years to account for the effects of annual variation in environmental conditions.

Spatiotemporal habitat use by a multitrophic Alaska alpine mammal community

Evaluating sympatric habitat use of a mammal community can help determine intra- and inter-guild interactions and identify important habitats, potentially improving the management of these communities with a changing climate. Increasingly variable climatic patterns in Alaska, USA, are raising concerns of mismatched phenologies and altered ecosystem structures. We studied the occupancy of 10 mammal species over 15 months, via camera traps, occupying alpine areas of the Alaska Range in interior Alaska, from 2013 to 2014. We tested hypotheses about how habitat use of these species within and between groups varied by spatial and temporal covariates. Furthermore, we modeled two-species occupancy of brown bears (Ursus arctos Linnaeus, 1758) and gray wolves (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) against different potential prey species. Our results suggest that medium-sized and large herbivore use was positively correlated with fine-scale covariates including rock, forb, and graminoid coverage. Large herbivore habitat use was also correlated with abiotic landscape covariates. Detection probabilities of predators and Dall’s sheep (Ovis dalli dalli Nelson, 1884) was improved by camera traps on wildlife trails. Two-species models suggested co-occurrence of habitat use between brown bear – caribou (Rangifer tarandus (Linnaeus, 1758)) and gray wolf – caribou. Results demonstrate the sympatric habitat use by multiple groups of mammals within Alaskan alpine ecosystems and the importance of incorporating multiple groups and spatial scales when making management decisions.

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

Monitoring is an essential component of wildlife management and conservation. However, the usefulness of monitoring data is often undermined by the lack of 1) coordination across organizations and regions, 2) meaningful management and conservation objectives, and 3) rigorous sampling designs. Although many improvements to avian monitoring have been discussed, the recommendations have been slow to emerge in large-scale programs. We introduce the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program designed to overcome the above limitations. Our objectives are to outline the development of a statistically defensible sampling design to increase the value of large-scale monitoring data and provide example applications to demonstrate the ability of the design to meet multiple conservation and management objectives. We outline the sampling process for the IMBCR program with a focus on the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). We provide two examples for the Brewer's sparrow (Spizella breweri) in BCR 17 demonstrating the ability of the design to 1) determine hierarchical population responses to landscape change and 2) estimate hierarchical habitat relationships to predict the response of the Brewer's sparrow to conservation efforts at multiple spatial scales. The collaboration across organizations and regions provided economy of scale by leveraging a common data platform over large spatial scales to promote the efficient use of monitoring resources. We designed the IMBCR program to address the information needs and core conservation and management objectives of the participating partner organizations. Although it has been argued that probabilistic sampling designs are not practical for large-scale monitoring, the IMBCR program provides a precedent for implementing a statistically defensible sampling design from local to bioregional scales. We demonstrate that integrating conservation and management objectives with rigorous statistical design and analyses ensures reliable knowledge about bird populations that is relevant and integral to bird conservation at multiple scales.