Predicting the outcome of closed-loop small bowel obstruction by preoperative characteristics

A prediction model to differentiate transient ischemia from irreversible transmural necrosis in closed-loop small bowel obstruction

Introduction

The study aims to develop a prediction model to differentiate transient ischemia from irreversible transmural necrosis in closed-loop small bowel obstruction (CL-SBO).

Methods

A total of 180 participants with CL-SBO between January 2010 and December 2019, of which 122 had complete radiologic data, were included to investigate the significant clinical and imaging characteristics for differentiating patients with necrosis from transient ischemia. A logistic regression model was developed and validated.

Results

In a multivariate analysis, the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification system >2 is the independent predictor for transmural necrosis. Another multivariate analysis, including clinical and imaging factors, revealed that the imaging sign of mesenteric vessel interruption was an independent risk factor for necrosis. The diagnostic model developed using these two factors has excellent performance among the validation sets, with an area under the curve of 0.89.

Conclusion

The diagnostic model and innovative imaging signs have substantial potential in solving this complex clinical problem.

Prediction of bowel necrosis by reduced bowel wall enhancement in closed-loop small bowel obstruction: Quantitative methods

PURPOSE

To assess diagnostic performance and reproducibility of reduced bowel wall enhancement evaluated by quantitative methods using CT to identify bowel necrosis among closed-loop small bowel obstruction (CL-SBO) patients.

METHODS

This retrospective single-center study included patients who diagnosed with CL-SBO caused by adhesion or internal hernia during January 2016 and May 2022. Patients were divided into necrotic group (n = 41) and non-necrotic group (n = 67) according to surgical exploration and postoperative pathology. Two doctors independently measured the attenuation of bowel wall and consensus was reached through panel discussion with a third gastrointestinal radiologist. Reduced bowel wall enhancement was assessed by four quantitative methods. Univariate analyses were used to evaluate the association between each method and bowel necrosis, and kappa/intraclass correlation coefficient values were used to assess interobserver agreement. Diagnostic performance parameters were calculated for each method.

RESULTS

Reduced bowel wall enhancement in arterial phase (OR 8.98, P < 0.0001), reduced bowel wall enhancement in portal phase (OR 16.84, P < 0.001), adjusted reduced bowel wall enhancement in arterial phase (OR 29.48, P < 0.001), adjusted reduced bowel wall enhancement in portal phase (OR 145.69, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with bowel necrosis. Adjusted reduced bowel wall enhancement in portal phase had the best diagnostic performance (AUC: 0.92; Youden index: 0.84; specificity: 94.03 %) and interobserver agreement (kappa value of 0.59-0.73) to predict bowel necrosis.

CONCLUSION

When assessing reduced bowel enhancement to predict bowel necrosis among CL-SBO patients, using unenhanced CT images and proximal dilated loop as standard references in portal phase is the most accurate quantitative method among those tested.

Prediction factors for ischemia of closed-loop small intestinal obstruction

A closed-loop type of intestinal obstruction leads to ischemic necrosis. There have been indicators that may predict ischemia and its severity, such as biomarkers and computed tomography scans. In addition to the usual inflammation markers, such as white blood count-neutrophil count and c-reactive protein (CRP), the most accurate predictors that have been proposed are the CRP-to-albumin ratio, the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and the platelet/lymphocyte ratio. Endothelin 1 is another promising biomarker of ischemia that must be assessed in daily clinical practice. Advanced age and frailty status were assessed as predictors of mortality. A timely operative procedure without any delay ensures a better outcome.