Impact of preprocedural biological markers on 10-year mortality in the SYNTAXES trial

Can Machine Learning Aid the Selection of Percutaneous vs Surgical Revascularization?

BACKGROUND

In patients with 3-vessel coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or left main CAD, individual risk prediction plays a key role in deciding between percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess whether these individualized revascularization decisions can be improved by applying machine learning (ML) algorithms and integrating clinical, biological, and anatomical factors.

METHODS

In the SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) study, ML algorithms (Lasso regression, gradient boosting) were used to develop a prognostic index for 5-year death, which was combined, in the second stage, with assigned treatment (PCI or CABG) and prespecified effect-modifiers: disease type (3-vessel or left main CAD) and anatomical SYNTAX score. The model's discriminative ability to predict the risk of 5-year death and treatment benefit between PCI and CABG was cross-validated in the SYNTAX trial (n = 1,800) and externally validated in the CREDO-Kyoto (Coronary REvascularization Demonstrating Outcome Study in Kyoto) registry (n = 7,362), and then compared with the original SYNTAX score II 2020 (SSII-2020).

RESULTS

The hybrid gradient boosting model performed best for predicting 5-year all-cause death with C-indexes of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75-0.81) in cross-validation and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76-0.79) in external validation. The ML models discriminated 5-year mortality better than the SSII-2020 in the external validation cohort and identified heterogeneity in the treatment benefit of CABG vs PCI.

CONCLUSIONS

An ML-based approach for identifying individuals who benefit from CABG or PCI is feasible and effective. Implementation of this model in health care systems-trained to collect large numbers of parameters-may harmonize decision making globally. (Synergy Between PCI With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery: SYNTAX Extended Survival [SYNTAXES]; NCT03417050; SYNTAX Study: TAXUS Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries; NCT00114972).

10 Years of SYNTAX: Closing an Era of Clinical Research After Identifying New Outcome Determinants

The SYNTAX trial randomized patients equally eligible for coronary artery bypass grafting or percutaneous coronary intervention using the Heart Team approach. The SYNTAXES study achieved a follow-up rate of 93.8% and reported the 10-year vital status. Factors associated with increased mortality at 10 years were pharmacologically treated diabetes mellitus, increased waist circumference, reduced left ventricular function, prior cerebrovascular and peripheral vascular disease, western Europe and North American descent, current smoking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, elevated C-reactive protein, anemia, and an increase in HbA1c. Procedural factors associated with higher 10 years mortality include periprocedural myocardial infarction, extensive stenting, small stents, ≥1 heavily calcified lesion, ≥1 bifurcation lesion, residual SYNTAX score >8, and staged percutaneous coronary intervention. Optimal medical therapy at 5 years, use of statins, on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting, multiple arterial grafts, and higher physical component score and mental component score were associated with lower mortality at 10 years. Numerous scores and prediction models were developed to help individualize risk assessment. Machine learning has emerged as a novel approach for developing risk models.

Impact of periprocedural major adverse events on 10-year mortality after revascularisation

BACKGROUND

The long-term prognostic impact of a composite of periprocedural major adverse events (PMAE) following revascularisation for patients with complex coronary artery disease (CAD) has not yet been established.

AIMS

This study aimed to assess the impact on 10-year mortality of non-fatal PMAE following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Other objectives were to evaluate 1) whether PMAE affect mortality predicted by the SYNTAX score II 2020 (SSII-2020) and 2) whether optimal medical therapy (OMT) positively affects the prognosis of patients with non-fatal PMAE.

METHODS

The association between 10-year mortality and non-fatal PMAE occurring within 30 days of PCI or CABG in patients with three-vessel disease and/or left main disease enrolled in the SYNTAXES study was investigated.

RESULTS

The main findings are that non-fatal PMAE occurred less frequently following PCI than CABG (11.2% vs 28.2%; p<0.001) and that non-fatal PMAE were an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in the first year post-procedure, but not at 5 or 10 years, in both treatment modalities. PMAE substantially alter the individual predictions of 10-year mortality by the SSII-2020. In patients with non-fatal PMAE, OMT may provide survival benefits during the first year post-procedure as well as in the long term.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with complex CAD, non-fatal PMAE were more common following CABG than PCI, but their prognostic impact was similar, being significant in the first year and then diminishing out to 10 years. Patients with non-fatal PMAE may therefore require more careful follow-up and additional preventive treatment in the first year post-procedure.

Narrowing disparities in PCI outcomes in women; From risk assessment, to referral pathways and outcomes

This review evaluates published data regarding outcomes for women with ACS undergoing PCI. Data is discussed from a patient centred perspective and timeline, beginning with sex-based differences in perception of risk, time to presentation, time to treatment, access to angiography, access to angioplasty, the impact of incomplete revascularization, prescribing practices, under-representation of women in randomized controlled trials and in cardiology physician workforces. The objective of the review is to identify factors contributing to outcome disparities for women with ACS, and to discuss potential solutions to close this outcome gap.