“Six-and-twelve” score for outcome prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma following transarterial chemoembolization. In-depth analysis from a multicenter French cohort

Prognosis Prediction of CRAFITY Score in HCC Undergoing TACE Combined with PD-(L)1 Inhibitors and Molecular Targeted Therapy

Background

The CRAFITY (C-reactive protein and alpha-fetoprotein in immunotherapy) score has demonstrated prognostic significance in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing immunotherapy. The study aimed to validate accuracy of CRAFITY score on predicting prognosis for patients with HCC treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with PD-(L)1 inhibitors and molecular targeted therapy.

Methods

Eighty-five HCC patients who underwent TACE in combination with molecular targeted therapy (MTT) and PD-(L)1 Inhibitors were consecutively enrolled from November 2019 to November 2022. Patients were divided into CRAFITY 0 score (n=32), CRAFITY 1 score (n=31), and CRAFITY 2 score (n=22), respectively. The primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), and the secondary outcomes included tumor response rate and treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs). Factors affecting survival were identified via Cox regression analysis.

Results

The median overall survival (OS) for HCC patients with CRAFITY scores of 0, 1, and 2 was 33.4 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 27.1-39.7), 34.5 months (95% CI: 23.1-45.9), and 24.2 months (95% CI: 13.9-39.3), respectively, there were statistical differences among the three groups (p<0.05). The progression-free survival (PFS) was 14.1 months (95% CI: 10.0-18.2), 14.1 months (95% CI: 9.0-19.2), and 9.3 months (95% CI: 7.2-11.4) for patients with CRAFITY scores of 1, 2, and 3, respectively, with a significant difference between the three groups (p<0.05). In patients with CRAFITY scores of 1, 2, and 3, the disease control rates (DCR) were 94%, 84%, and 73%, respectively (p < 0.05), while the overall response rates (ORR) were 78.1%, 67.7%, and 59.1%, respectively (p = 0.318). A higher CRAFITY score showed a correlation with an increased frequency of fatigue and grade 3 fever (p<0.05). Moreover, CRAFITY 2 score was an independent risk factor for both OS (HR = 2.610(1.281-4.564), p = 0.014) and PFS (HR = 2.419(1.281-4.564), p = 0.006).

Conclusion

The CRAFITY score may provide an efficient predictive capacity for prognosis in HCC patients undergoing TACE combined with PD-(L)1 inhibitors and molecular targeted therapy.

Optimal time point of response assessment for predicting survival is associated with tumor burden in hepatocellular carcinoma receiving repeated transarterial chemoembolization

OBJECTIVES

Objective response rate (ORR) under mRECIST criteria after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a well-perceived surrogate endpoint of overall survival (OS). However, its optimal time point remains controversial and may be influenced by tumor burden. We aim to investigate the surrogacy of initial/best ORR in relation to tumor burden.

METHODS

A total of 1549 eligible treatment-naïve patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh score ≤ 7, and performance status score ≤ 1 undergoing TACE between January 2010 and May 2016 from 17 academic hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. Based on "six-and-twelve" criteria, tumor burden was graded as low, intermediate, and high if the sum of the maximum tumor diameter and tumor number was ≤ 6, > 6 but ≤ 12, and > 12, respectively.

RESULTS

Both initial and best ORRs interacted with tumor burden. Initial and best ORRs could equivalently predict and correlate with OS in low (adjusted HR, 2.55 and 2.95, respectively, both p < 0.001; R = 0.84, p = 0.035, and R = 0.97, p = 0.002, respectively) and intermediate strata (adjusted HR, 1.81 and 2.22, respectively, both p < 0.001; R = 0.74, p = 0.023, and R = 0.9, p = 0.002, respectively). For high strata, only best ORR exhibited qualified surrogacy (adjusted HR, 2.61, p < 0.001; R = 0.70, p = 0.035), whereas initial ORR was not significant (adjusted HR, 1.08, p = 0.357; R = 0.22, p = 0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

ORR as surrogacy of OS is associated with tumor burden. For patients with low/intermediate tumor burden, initial ORR should be preferred in its early availability upon similar sensitivity, whereas for patients with high tumor burden, best ORR has optimal sensitivity. Timing of OR assessment should be tailored according to tumor burden.

KEY POINTS

• This is the first study utilizing individual patient data to comprehensively analyze the surrogacy of ORR with a long follow-up period. • Optimal timing of ORR assessment for predicting survival should be tailored according to tumor burden. • For patients with low and intermediate tumor burden, initial ORR is optimal for its timeliness upon similar sensitivity with best ORR. For patients with high tumor burden, best ORR has optimal sensitivity.

Tumor Burden in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization: Head-to-Head Comparison of Current Scoring Systems

Objectives

Recently, several scoring systems for prognosis prediction based on tumor burden have been promoted for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). This multicenter study aimed to perform the first head-to-head comparison of three scoring systems.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 849 treatment-naïve patients with HCC undergoing TACE at six tertiary care centers between 2010 and 2020. The tumor burden score (TBS), the Six-and-Twelve score (SAT), and the Seven-Eleven criteria (SEC) were calculated based on the maximum lesion size and the number of tumor nodes. All scores were compared in univariate and multivariate regression analyses, adjusted for established risk factors.

Results

The median overall survival (OS) times were 33.0, 18.3, and 12.8 months for patients with low, medium, and high TBS, respectively (p<0.001). The median OS times were 30.0, 16.9, and 10.2 months for patients with low, medium, and high SAT, respectively (p<0.001). The median OS times were 27.0, 16.7, and 10.5 for patients with low, medium, and high SEC, respectively (p<0.001). In a multivariate analysis, only the SAT remained an independent prognostic factor. The C-Indexes were 0.54 for the TBS, 0.59 for the SAT, and 0.58 for the SEC.

Conclusion

In a direct head-to-head comparison, the SAT was superior to the TBS and SEC in survival stratification and predictive ability. Therefore, the SAT can be considered when estimating the tumor burden. However, all three scores showed only moderate predictive power. Therefore, tumor burden should only be one component among many in treatment decision making.