Identifying the most sensitive and specific sign and symptom combinations for cholera: results from an analysis of laboratory-based surveillance data from Haiti, 2012-2013

Estimating the proportion of clinically suspected cholera cases that are true Vibrio cholerae infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Cholera surveillance relies on clinical diagnosis of acute watery diarrhea. Suspected cholera case definitions have high sensitivity but low specificity, challenging our ability to characterize cholera burden and epidemiology. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of clinically suspected cholera that are true Vibrio cholerae infections and identify factors that explain variation in positivity.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a systematic review of studies that tested ≥10 suspected cholera cases for V. cholerae O1/O139 using culture, PCR, and/or a rapid diagnostic test. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for studies that sampled at least one suspected case between January 1, 2000 and April 19, 2023, to reflect contemporary patterns in V. cholerae positivity. We estimated diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity using a latent class meta-analysis. We estimated V. cholerae positivity using a random-effects meta-analysis, adjusting for test performance. We included 119 studies from 30 countries. V. cholerae positivity was lower in studies with representative sampling and in studies that set minimum ages in suspected case definitions. After adjusting for test performance, on average, 52% (95% credible interval (CrI): 24%, 80%) of suspected cases represented true V. cholerae infections. After adjusting for test performance and study methodology, the odds of a suspected case having a true infection were 5.71 (odds ratio 95% CrI: 1.53, 15.43) times higher when surveillance was initiated in response to an outbreak than in non-outbreak settings. Variation across studies was high, and a limitation of our approach was that we were unable to explain all the heterogeneity with study-level attributes, including diagnostic test used, setting, and case definitions.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that burden estimates based on suspected cases alone may overestimate the incidence of medically attended cholera by 2-fold. However, accounting for cases missed by traditional clinical surveillance is key to unbiased cholera burden estimates. Given the substantial variability in positivity between settings, extrapolations from suspected to confirmed cases, which is necessary to estimate cholera incidence rates without exhaustive testing, should be based on local data.

Diversity of rotavirus strains circulating in Haiti before and after introduction of monovalent vaccine

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Rotaviruses are the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis among children.

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In Haiti, the most frequent genotype in the pre-vaccine period was G12P[8].

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Equine-like G3P[8] strains dominated most years following vaccine introduction.

Background

Haiti introduced a monovalent human group A rotavirus (RVA) vaccine (Rotarix) into its routine infant immunization program in April 2014. The goal of the surveillance program was to characterize RVA strains circulating in Haiti before and after RVA vaccine introduction.

Methods

Stool samples were collected from children <5 years old presenting with acute gastroenteritis at 16 hospitals in Haiti. RVA antigen enzyme immunoassay (EIA) testing was performed, and G and P genotypes were determined for positive specimens. In this study, genotype data for samples collected from May 2012 through April 2014 (the pre-vaccine introduction era) and May 2014 through July 2019 (post-vaccine introduction era) were analyzed.

Results

A total of 809 specimens were tested by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. During the pre-vaccine introduction era (May 2012 through April 2014), G12P[8] was the predominant genotype, detected in 88–94% of specimens. There was a high prevalence of the equine-like G3P[8] genotype among Haitian children with RVA after vaccine introduction.

Conclusions

The predominance of equine-like G3P[8] in three of five RVA seasons post-vaccine introduction suggests possible vaccine-specific selection pressure in Haiti. These temporal variations in RVA genotype predominance will require continued monitoring in Haiti as the vaccination program continues.

The impact of improved water supply on cholera and diarrhoeal diseases in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo: a protocol for a pragmatic stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial and economic evaluation

INTRODUCTION

Diarrhoeal disease remains a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Cholera alone is estimated to cause 95,000 deaths per year, most of which occur in endemic settings with inadequate water access. Whilst a global strategy to eliminate cholera by 2030 calls for investment in improved drinking water services, there is limited rigorous evidence for the impact of improved water supply on endemic cholera transmission in low-income urban settings. Our protocol is designed to deliver a pragmatic health impact evaluation of a large-scale water supply intervention in Uvira (Democratic Republic of the Congo), a cholera transmission hotspot.

METHODS/DESIGN

A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial (SW-CRT) was designed to evaluate the impact of a large-scale drinking water supply intervention on cholera incidence among the 280,000 inhabitants of Uvira. The city was divided into 16 clusters, where new community and household taps will be installed following a randomised sequence over a transition period of up to 8 weeks in each cluster. The primary trial outcomes are the monthly incidence of "confirmed" cholera cases (patients testing positive by rapid detection kit) and of "suspected" cholera cases (patients admitted to the cholera treatment centre). Concurrent process and economic evaluations will provide further information on the context, costs, and efficiency of the intervention.

DISCUSSION

In this protocol, we describe a pragmatic approach to conducting rigorous research to assess the impacts of a complex water supply intervention on severe diarrhoeal disease and cholera in an unstable, low-resource setting representative of cholera-affected areas. In particular, we discuss a series of pre-identified risks and linked mitigation strategies as well as the value of combining different data collection methods and preparation of multiple analysis scenarios to account for possible deviations from the protocol. The study described here has the potential to provide robust evidence to support more effective cholera control in challenging, high-burden settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered on clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT02928341 , 10th October 2016) and has received ethics approval from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (8913, 10603) and from the Ethics Committee from the School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (ESP/CE/088/2015).

Confirmation of cholera by rapid diagnostic test amongst patients admitted to the cholera treatment centre in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo

INTRODUCTION

Cholera is endemic in the Eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 1978, and Uvira in South-Kivu has been reporting suspected cholera cases nearly every week for over a decade. The clinical case definition for suspected cholera is relatively non-specific, and cases are rarely confirmed by laboratory methods, especially in endemic settings. This may lead to over-estimation of cholera cases and limit effective public health responses.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between April 2016 and November 2017, 69% of the 2,059 patients admitted to the Uvira Cholera Treatment Centre (CTC) were tested for cholera with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Of those admitted as suspected cholera cases, only 40% tested positive for cholera, equivalent to an estimated annual incidence of suspected/confirmed cholera in Uvira of 43.8 and 16.3 cases per 10,000 inhabitants respectively. A multivariable logistic regression indicates that boys aged 2 to 4 years, girls aged 5 to 15 years and adult men are respectively 1.9, 2.1 and 1.8 times more likely to test positive than adult women. On the contrary, boys under 2 are 10 times less likely to test positive. The odds of testing positive also increase as weekly admissions to the CTC rise, with up to a 5-fold increase observed during the weeks with the highest numbers of admissions compared to the lowest ones. Other predictors of cholera confirmation include duration of stay at the CTC, clinical outcome of admission, lower weekly rainfall and area of residence in Uvira, with the northern part of town having the highest confirmation rate.

CONCLUSION

Cholera is an on-going public health problem in Uvira but the majority of suspected cases admitted to the CTC were found to be negative for cholera after RDT testing. These findings may have important implications for cholera control strategies in favour of interventions that address cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases alike.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Public-Health Utility of Clinical Case Definitions Based on the Signs and Symptoms of Cholera in Africa

During 2014, Africa reported more than half of the global suspected cholera cases. Based on the data collected from seven countries in the African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol), we assessed the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of clinical cholera case definitions, including that recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) using culture confirmation as the gold standard. The study was designed to assess results in real-world field situations in settings with recent cholera outbreaks or endemicity. From June 2011 to July 2015, a total of 5,084 persons with suspected cholera were tested for Vibrio cholerae in seven different countries of which 35.7% had culture confirmation. For all countries combined, the WHO case definition had a sensitivity = 92.7%, specificity = 8.1%, positive predictive value = 36.1%, and negative predictive value = 66.6%. Adding dehydration, vomiting, or rice water stools to the case definition could increase the specificity without a substantial decrease in sensitivity. Future studies could further refine our findings primarily by using more sensitive methods for cholera confirmation.

Strengthening National Disease Surveillance and Response-Haiti, 2010-2015

Haiti's health system has faced many challenges over the years, with competing health priorities in the context of chronic financial and human resource limitations. As a result, the existing notifiable disease surveillance system was unable to provide the most basic epidemiologic data for public health decision-making and action. In the wake of the January 2010 earthquake, the Haitian Ministry of Public Health and Population collaborated with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Pan American Health Organization, and other local and international partners to implement a functional national surveillance system. More than 7 years later, it is important to take the opportunity to reflect on progress made on surveillance and response in Haiti, including disease detection, reporting, outbreak investigation, and response. The national epidemiologic surveillance network that started with 51 sites in 2010 has been expanded to 357 sites as of December 2015. Disease outbreaks identified via the surveillance system, or other surveillance approaches, are investigated by epidemiologists trained by the Ministry of Health's Field Epidemiology Training Program. Other related surveillance modules have been developed on the same model and electronic platform, allowing the country to document the impact of interventions, track progress, and monitor health problems. Sustainability remains the greatest challenge since most of the funding for surveillance come from external sources.

Medicine in Society Health Project: Five Students' Journey to a Resource-Limited Clinic in the Haitian Countryside

BACKGROUND

Five medical students traveled with 4 doctors and a medical photographer to Mayaya, La Victoire, Haiti, as part of a Medicine in Society rotation to provide medical care to the indigenous population.

METHODS

Preparation for the trip involved special study in identifying microbes and using blood analysis equipment; work in a clinic for underserved people in the New Orleans, LA, area; background reading; Haitian dialect classes; and development of ideas for streamlining clinic operations.

RESULTS

During the week in country, the healthcare team saw 472 patients and made more than 1,100 diagnoses. A shortage in almost all needed medications was one of the biggest challenges.

CONCLUSION

Each aspect of the pretrip training was useful but did not prepare the students for the conditions in the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. Overall, the clinic functioned smoothly, and each student had an important role to play each day. Medicine in Society-Haiti gave the medical students a completely new perspective on medicine as they experienced firsthand the ethical dilemma of resource scarcity.

Global Emergency Medicine: A Review of the Literature From 2015

OBJECTIVES

The Global Emergency Medicine Literature Review (GEMLR) conducts an annual search of peer-reviewed and gray literature relevant to global emergency medicine (EM) to identify, review, and disseminate the most important new research in this field to a global audience of academics and clinical practitioners.

METHODS

This year 12,435 articles written in six languages were identified by our search. These articles were distributed among 20 reviewers for initial screening based on their relevance to the field of global EM. An additional two reviewers searched the gray literature. A total of 723 articles were deemed appropriate by at least one reviewer and approved by their editor for formal scoring of overall quality and importance. Two independent reviewers scored all articles.

RESULTS

A total of 723 articles met our predetermined inclusion criteria and underwent full review. Sixty percent were categorized as emergency care in resource-limited settings (ECRLS), 17% as EM development (EMD), and 23% as disaster and humanitarian response (DHR). Twenty-four articles received scores of 18.5 or higher out of a maximum score 20 and were selected for formal summary and critique. Inter-rater reliability between reviewers gave an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.71 (95% confidence interval = 0.66 to 0.75). Studies and reviews with a focus on infectious diseases, trauma, and the diagnosis and treatment of diseases common in resource-limited settings represented the majority of articles selected for final review.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2015, there were almost twice as many articles found by our search compared to the 2014 review. The number of EMD articles increased, while the number ECRLS articles decreased. The number of DHR articles remained stable. As in prior years, the majority of articles focused on infectious diseases.