Impact of Intermittent Mass Testing and Treatment on Incidence of Malaria Infection in a High Transmission Area of Western Kenya

A systematic review of sample size estimation accuracy on power in malaria cluster randomised trials measuring epidemiological outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are the gold standard for measuring the community-wide impacts of malaria control tools. CRTs rely on well-defined sample size estimations to detect statistically significant effects of trialled interventions, however these are often predicted poorly by triallists. Here, we review the accuracy of predicted parameters used in sample size calculations for malaria CRTs with epidemiological outcomes.

METHODS

We searched for published malaria CRTs using four online databases in March 2022. Eligible trials included those with malaria-specific epidemiological outcomes which randomised at least six geographical clusters to study arms. Predicted and observed sample size parameters were extracted by reviewers for each trial. Pair-wise Spearman's correlation coefficients (rs) were calculated to assess the correlation between predicted and observed control-arm outcome measures and effect sizes (relative percentage reductions) between arms. Among trials which retrospectively calculated an estimate of heterogeneity in cluster outcomes, we recalculated study power according to observed trial estimates.

RESULTS

Of the 1889 records identified and screened, 108 articles were eligible and comprised of 71 malaria CRTs. Among 91.5% (65/71) of trials that included sample size calculations, most estimated cluster heterogeneity using the coefficient of variation (k) (80%, 52/65) which were often predicted without using prior data (67.7%, 44/65). Predicted control-arm prevalence moderately correlated with observed control-arm prevalence (rs: 0.44, [95%CI: 0.12,0.68], p-value < 0.05], with 61.2% (19/31) of prevalence estimates overestimated. Among the minority of trials that retrospectively calculated cluster heterogeneity (20%, 13/65), empirical values contrasted with those used in sample size estimations and often compromised study power. Observed effect sizes were often smaller than had been predicted at the sample size stage (72.9%, 51/70) and were typically higher in the first, compared to the second, year of trials. Overall, effect sizes achieved by malaria interventions tested in trials decreased between 1995 and 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings reveal sample size parameters in malaria CRTs were often inaccurate and resulted in underpowered studies. Future trials must strive to obtain more representative epidemiological sample size inputs to ensure interventions against malaria are adequately evaluated.

REGISTRATION

This review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022315741).

Effect of weekly fever-screening and treatment and monthly RDT testing and treatment on the infectious reservoir of malaria parasites in Burkina Faso: a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The majority of Plasmodium spp infections in endemic countries are asymptomatic and a source of onward transmission to mosquitoes. We aimed to examine whether Plasmodium falciparum transmission and malaria burden could be reduced by improving early detection and treatment of infections with active screening approaches.

METHODS

In this 18-month cluster randomised study in Sapone, Burkina Faso, households were enrolled and randomly assigned (1:1:1) to one of three groups: group 1 (control) received standard of care only, group 2 received active weekly, at home, fever screening by a community health worker regardless of symptoms, participants with a fever received a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and treatment if RDT positive, and group 3 received active weekly fever screening (as in group 2) plus a monthly RDT regardless of symptoms, and treatment if RDT positive. Eligible households had a minimum of three eligible residents, one in each age group (<5 years, 5-15 years, and >15 years). The primary outcome was parasite prevalence by quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the end-of-study cross-sectional survey. Secondary outcomes included parasite and gametocyte prevalence and density in all three end-of-season cross-sectional surveys, incidence of infection, and the transmissibility of infections to mosquitoes. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03705624) and is completed.

FINDINGS

A total of 906 individuals from 181 households were enrolled during two phases, and participated in the study. 412 individuals were enrolled between Aug 9 and 17, 2018, and participated in phase 1 and 494 individuals were enrolled between Jan 10 and 31, 2019, in phase 2. In the end-of-study cross-sectional survey (conducted between Jan 13 and 21, 2020), Pfalciparum prevalence by qPCR was significantly lower in group 3 (29·26%; 79 of 270), but not in group 2 (45·66%; 121 of 265), when compared with group 1 (48·72%; 133 of 273; risk ratio 0·65 [95% CI 0·52-0·81]; p=0·0001). Total parasite and gametocyte prevalence and density were also significantly lower in group 3 in all surveys. The largest differences were seen at the end of the dry season, with gametocyte prevalence 78·4% and predicted transmission potential 98·2% lower in group 3 than in group 1.

INTERPRETATION

Active monthly RDT testing and treatment can reduce parasite carriage and the infectious reservoir of P falciparum to less than 2% when used during the dry season. This insight might inform approaches for malaria control and elimination.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, European Research Council, and The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research.

Mass Testing and Treatment to Accelerate Malaria Elimination: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

In regions where malaria transmission persists, the implementation of approaches aimed at eliminating parasites from the population can effectively decrease both burden of disease and transmission of infection. Thus, mass strategies that target symptomatic and asymptomatic infections at the same time may help countries to reduce transmission. This systematic review assessed the potential benefits and harms of mass testing and treatment (MTaT) to reduce malaria transmission. Searches were conducted in March 2021 and updated in April 2022 and included cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) as well as nonrandomized studies (NRSs) using malaria infection incidence, clinical malaria incidence, or prevalence as outcomes. The risk of bias was assessed with Cochrane's risk of bias (RoB2) tool and Risk of Bias Tool in Nonrandomized Studies - of Interventions (ROBINS-I), and the certainty of evidence (CoE) was graded for each outcome. Of 4,462 citations identified, seven studies (four cRCTs and three NRSs) contributed outcome data. The analysis revealed that MTaT did not reduce the incidence (risk ratio [RR]: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.87-1.04; 1,181 participants; moderate CoE) or prevalence (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.67-1.01; 7,522 participants; moderate CoE) of malaria infection but resulted in a small reduction in clinical malaria (RR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.70-0.95; 334,944 participants; moderate CoE). Three studies contributing data on contextual factors concluded that MTaT is an acceptable, feasible, and cost-effective intervention. Mathematical modeling analyses (n = 10) suggested that MTaT effectiveness depends on the baseline transmission level, diagnostic test performance, number of rounds, and other co-interventions. Based on the limited evidence available, MTaT has little to no impact on reducing malaria transmission.

Testing and treatment for malaria elimination: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Global interest in malaria elimination has prompted research on active test and treat (TaT) strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess the effectiveness of TaT strategies to reduce malaria transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 72 empirical research and 24 modelling studies were identified, mainly focused on proactive mass TaT (MTaT) and reactive case detection (RACD) in higher and lower transmission settings, respectively. Ten intervention studies compared MTaT to no MTaT and the evidence for impact on malaria incidence was weak. No intervention studies compared RACD to no RACD. Compared to passive case detection (PCD) alone, PCD + RACD using standard diagnostics increased infection detection 52.7% and 11.3% in low and very low transmission settings, respectively. Using molecular methods increased this detection of infections by 1.4- and 1.1-fold, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest MTaT is not effective for reducing transmission. By increasing case detection, surveillance data provided by RACD may indirectly reduce transmission by informing coordinated responses of intervention targeting.

The relative effect of climate variability on malaria incidence after scale-up of interventions in western Kenya: A time-series analysis of monthly incidence data from 2008 to 2019

Background

Despite considerable progress made over the past 20 years in reducing the global burden of malaria, the disease remains a major public health problem and there is concern that climate change might expand suitable areas for transmission. This study investigated the relative effect of climate variability on malaria incidence after scale-up of interventions in western Kenya.

Methods

Bayesian negative binomial models were fitted to monthly malaria incidence data, extracted from records of patients with febrile illnesses visiting the Lwak Mission Hospital between 2008 and 2019. Data pertaining to bed net use and socio-economic status (SES) were obtained from household surveys. Climatic proxy variables obtained from remote sensing were included as covariates in the models. Bayesian variable selection was used to determine the elapsing time between climate suitability and malaria incidence.

Results

Malaria incidence increased by 50% from 2008 to 2010, then declined by 73% until 2015. There was a resurgence of cases after 2016, despite high bed net use. Increase in daytime land surface temperature was associated with a decline in malaria incidence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.70, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]: 0.59-0.82), while rainfall was associated with increased incidence (IRR = 1.27, 95% BCI: 1.10-1.44). Bed net use was associated with a decline in malaria incidence in children aged 6-59 months (IRR = 0.78, 95% BCI: 0.70-0.87) but not in older age groups, whereas SES was not associated with malaria incidence in this population.

Conclusions

Variability in climatic factors showed a stronger effect on malaria incidence than bed net use. Bed net use was, however, associated with a reduction in malaria incidence, especially among children aged 6-59 months after adjusting for climate effects. To sustain the downward trend in malaria incidence, this study recommends continued distribution and use of bed nets and consideration of climate-based malaria early warning systems when planning for future control interventions.

Mass screening and treatment (MSaT) for identifying and treating asymptomatic cases of malaria-malaria elimination demonstration project (MEDP), Mandla, Madhya Pradesh

BACKGROUND

Mass screening and treatment (MSaT) aims at reducing the spread of malaria in communities by identifying and treating infected persons regardless of the symptoms. This study was conducted to identify and treat asymptomatic cases using MSaT approaches in the community.

METHODS

Three rounds of MSaT using cluster combination approaches were carried out during September 2018 to December 2019 to identify and treat asymptomatic malaria cases in the community. All individuals who were present in the household were screened using RDT irrespective of malaria related symptoms. Simultaneously thick and thin blood smear and blood spot were collected for further analysis using microscopy and diagnostic PCR done in a subset of the samples.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis revealed that asymptomatic malaria cases significantly less among the older age groups compared with < 5 years children (OR ranged between 0.52 and 0.61; p < 0.05), lowest in cluster 4 (OR = 0.01; p < 0.0001); during third round of MSaT survey (OR = 0.11; p < 0.0001) and significantly higher in moderate to high endemic areas (OR = 88.30; p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Over the three rounds of MSaT, the number of asymptomatic cases were significantly less in the older age groups, and during third round. Similarly, the asymptomatic cases were significantly less in the low endemic area with API < 1 (cluster four). Therefore, the malaria elimination programme may consider the MSaT strategy to identify asymptomatic cases that would be otherwise missed by routine fever based surveillance. This MSaT strategy would help accomplish the malaria elimination goal in an expedited manner.

Novel application of one-step pooled molecular testing and maximum likelihood approaches to estimate the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia among rapid diagnostic test negative samples in western Kenya

Background

Detection of malaria parasitaemia in samples that are negative by rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) requires resource-intensive molecular tools. While pooled testing using a two-step strategy provides a cost-saving alternative to the gold standard of individual sample testing, statistical adjustments are needed to improve accuracy of prevalence estimates for a single step pooled testing strategy.

Methods

A random sample of 4670 malaria RDT negative dried blood spot samples were selected from a mass testing and treatment trial in Asembo, Gem, and Karemo, western Kenya. Samples were tested for malaria individually and in pools of five, 934 pools, by one-step quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Maximum likelihood approaches were used to estimate subpatent parasitaemia (RDT-negative, qPCR-positive) prevalence by pooling, assuming poolwise sensitivity and specificity was either 100% (strategy A) or imperfect (strategy B). To improve and illustrate the practicality of this estimation approach, a validation study was constructed from pools allocated at random into main (734 pools) and validation (200 pools) subsets. Prevalence was estimated using strategies A and B and an inverse-variance weighted estimator and estimates were weighted to account for differential sampling rates by area.

Results

The prevalence of subpatent parasitaemia was 14.5% (95% CI 13.6–15.3%) by individual qPCR, 9.5% (95% CI (8.5–10.5%) by strategy A, and 13.9% (95% CI 12.6–15.2%) by strategy B. In the validation study, the prevalence by individual qPCR was 13.5% (95% CI 12.4–14.7%) in the main subset, 8.9% (95% CI 7.9–9.9%) by strategy A, 11.4% (95% CI 9.9–12.9%) by strategy B, and 12.8% (95% CI 11.2–14.3%) using inverse-variance weighted estimator from poolwise validation. Pooling, including a 20% validation subset, reduced costs by 52% compared to individual testing.

Conclusions

Compared to individual testing, a one-step pooled testing strategy with an internal validation subset can provide accurate prevalence estimates of PCR-positivity among RDT-negatives at a lower cost.

Impact of Community-Based Mass Testing and Treatment on Malaria Infection Prevalence in a High-Transmission Area of Western Kenya: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Global gains toward malaria elimination have been heterogeneous and have recently stalled. Interventions targeting afebrile malaria infections may be needed to address residual transmission. We studied the efficacy of repeated rounds of community-based mass testing and treatment (MTaT) on malaria infection prevalence in western Kenya.

METHODS

Twenty clusters were randomly assigned to 3 rounds of MTaT per year for 2 years or control (standard of care for testing and treatment at public health facilities along with government-sponsored mass long-lasting insecticidal net [LLIN] distributions). During rounds, community health volunteers visited all households in intervention clusters and tested all consenting individuals with a rapid diagnostic test. Those positive were treated with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. Cross-sectional community infection prevalence surveys were performed in both study arms at baseline and each year after 3 rounds of MTaT. The primary outcome was the effect size of MTaT on parasite prevalence by microscopy between arms by year, adjusted for age, reported LLIN use, enhanced vegetative index, and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Demographic and behavioral characteristics, including LLIN usage, were similar between arms at each survey. MTaT coverage across the 3 annual rounds ranged between 75.0% and 77.5% in year 1, and between 81.9% and 94.3% in year 2. The adjusted effect size of MTaT on the prevalence of parasitemia between arms was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], .79-1.08) and 0.92 (95% CI, .76-1.10) after year 1 and year 2, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

MTaT performed 3 times per year over 2 years did not reduce malaria parasite prevalence in this high-transmission area.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02987270.