Critical Care Research in Elderly Population: An Uncharted Territory

The Combined Use of Interleukin-6 with Serum Albumin for Mortality Prediction in Critically Ill Elderly Patients: The Interleukin-6-to-albumin Ratio

Background

The association between interleukin-6 (IL-6) and serum albumin (ALB) with mortality in critically ill elderly patients, either as stand-alone biomarkers or in combination, has been scarcely reported. We, therefore, aimed to investigate the prognostic value of the IL-6-to-albumin ratio in this special population.

Patients and methods

This was a cross-sectional study conducted in the mixed intensive care unit (ICU) of two university-affiliated hospitals in Malaysia. Consecutive elderly patients (aged above or equal to 60 years) admitted to the ICU, who underwent simultaneous measurement of plasma IL-6 and serum ALB, were recruited. The prognostic value of the IL-6-to-albumin ratio was assessed by analysis of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

A total of 112 critically ill elderly patients were recruited. The outcome of all-cause ICU mortality was 22.3%. The calculated IL-6-to-albumin ratio was significantly higher in the non-survivors compared to the survivors {14.1 [interquartile range (IQR), 6.5-26.7] vs 2.5 [(IQR, 0.6-9.2) pg/mL, p <0.001]}. The area under the curve (AUC) of IL-6-to-albumin ratio for discrimination of ICU mortality was 0.766 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.667-0.865, p <0.001] which was slightly higher than that of IL-6 and albumin alone. The ideal cut-off value of the IL-6-to-albumin ratio was above 5.7 with a sensitivity of 80.0% and specificity of 64.4%. After adjusting for severity of illness, the IL-6-to-albumin ratio remained as an independent predictor of ICU mortality with an adjusted odd ratio of 0.975 (95% CI, 0.952-0.999, p = 0.039).

Conclusion

The IL-6-to-albumin ratio offers a slight improvement in mortality prediction than either of its constituent individual biomarkers and as such, it may be a potential tool to aid in the prognostication of critically ill elderly patients although this requires further validation in a larger prospective study.

How to cite this article

Lim KY, Shukeri WFWM, Hassan WMNW, Mat-Nor MB, Hanafi MH. The Combined Use of Interleukin-6 with Serum Albumin for Mortality Prediction in Critically Ill Elderly Patients: The Interleukin-6-to-albumin Ratio. Indian J Crit Care Med 2022;26(10):1126-1130.

The Value of RANSON Score Combined with BMI in Predicting the Mortality in Severe Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Study

Objective

To explore the value of modified RANSON score in predicting mortality from severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

Methods

In this retrospective study, 461 SAP patients hospitalized from January 2016 to January 2020 were enrolled. AP (acute pancreatitis) patients from our hospital were employed as the training set. In addition, AP patients from the affiliated hospital of Nantong University were set as the validation set. The clinical characteristics of patients were compared between the two sets. The independent risk factors for SAP were determined through logistic regression. Moreover, the risk factors were derived for various prediction models by logistic regression. Multiple methods were adopted to assess the predictive ability of various models.

Results

A total of 338 patients were assigned into the training set, while 123 patients were assigned into the validation set. The patients in the training and validation sets showed the consistent distribution trends (P>0.05). In the training set, significant differences between patients in the non-survival and survival groups were BMI, PCT, platelets (PLT), direct bilirubin (DBil) and RANSON scores (P<0.05). In further multivariate analysis, BMI, PCT and RANSON score were found as the independent risk factors for the mortality of SAP (OR=1.12, 1.25, 1.28, 95% CI:1.06–1.19, 1.08–1.44, 1.12–1.47, P<0.05). In the training set and validation set, ROC curve analysis showed that AUC of BMI+RANSON score was 0.778 and 0.789, respectively. In the calibration curve, the fitting degree of RANSON score+BMI and ideal assessment model was 0.975 and 0.854, respectively. The decision curve suggested that the net benefit per patient increased with the lengthening of the RANSON score+ BMI model curve. As revealed by the results of NRI and IDI indicators, RANSON score+BMI was optimized based on RANSON score (P<0.05).

Conclusion

BMI+RANSON was confirmed as a modified model effective in predicting the mortality from SAP.