Predicting Liver-Related Events Using Transient Elastography in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients with Sustained Virological Response

Development and validation of a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after sustained virological response (SVR). Clinical recommendations impose a significant burden on patients by recommending lifelong screening for HCC every six months. The goals of this study were to develop a nomogram that accurately stratifies risk of HCC and improve the screening approach that is currently in use.

METHOD

Risk factors for HCC were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses in this prospective study. We developed and validated a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 61.00 (57.00-66.00) months in the derivation cohort, 37 patients (9.61%) developed HCC. Older age (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.009), male gender (HR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.10-5.13, p = 0.027), low serum albumin levels (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.037), and high liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of HCC development. Harrell's C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.81. The nomogram's 3-, 5- and 7-years time-dependent AUROCSs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88), 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85), respectively (all p > 0.05). According to the nomogram, patients are categorized as having low, intermediate, or high risk. The annual incidence rates of HCC in the three groups were 0.18%, 1.29%, and 4.45%, respectively (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, male gender, low serum albumin levels, and high LSM were risk factors for HCC after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. We used these risk factors to establish a nomogram. The nomogram can identify a suitable screening plan by classifying hepatitis C patients according to their risk of HCC.

Regression in hepatic fibrosis in elderly Chinese patients with hepatitis C receiving direct-acting antiviral treatment

BACKGROUND

Patients infected with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) are recommended to receive treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs), which have been certified to obtain a high sustained virological response (SVR). However, little is known about the benefits of successful anti-viral treatment to elderly patients with hepatic fibrosis. In this study, we aimed to assess degree of fibrosis in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) treated with DAAs, and to evaluate the correlations between identified factors associated with these changes.

METHODS

This study retrospectively enrolled elderly patients with CHC who received DAAs in Tianjin Second People's Hospital from April 2018 to April 2021. The degree of liver fibrosis was assessed using serum biomarkers and transient elastography (TE) expressed as the liver stiffness (LSM), while the hepatic steatosis was evaluated by controlled attenuated parameter (CAP). Changes in factors related to hepatic fibrosis were examined following treatment with DAAs, and associated prognostic factors were further evaluated.

RESULTS

We included 347 CHC patients in our analysis, where 127 of these were elderly patients. For the elderly group, the median LSM was 11.6 (7.9-19.9) kPa, and this value was significantly reduced to 9.7 (6.2-16.6) kPa following DAA treatment. Similarly, GPR, FIB-4 and APRI indices were significantly reduced from 0.445 (0.275-1.022), 3.072 (2.047-5.129) and 0.833 (0.430-1.540) to 0.231 (0.155-0.412), 2.100 (1.540-3.034) and 0.336 (0.235-0.528), respectively. While in younger patients, the median LSM reduced from 8.8 (6.1-16.8) kPa to 7.2 (5.3-12.4) kPa, and the trends of GPR, FIB-4 and APRI were also consistent. The CAP in younger patients increased with statistical significance, but we did not observe any significant change in CAP for the elderly group. Based on multivariate analysis, age, LSM, and CAP before baseline were identified as determinants for LSM improvement in the elderly.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we found that elderly CHC patients treated with DAA had significantly lower LSM, GPR, FIB-4, and APRI values. DAA treatment did not significantly change CAP. Furthermore, we observed correlations between three noninvasive serological evaluation markers and LSM. Finally, age, LSM, and CAP were identified as independent predictors of fibrosis regression in elderly patients with CHC.

Comparison of FibroScan-Aspartate Aminotransferase (FAST) Score and Other Non-invasive Surrogates in Predicting High-Risk Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis Criteria

Identification of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with high activity and fibrosis is a major priority in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. We validated the predictive value of the FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase (FAST) score and other non-invasive fibrosis surrogates in predicting high-risk NASH criteria. This multicenter retrospective study recruited 251 biopsy-proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients (132 [52.6%] men) between 2011 and 2014. The FAST score was calculated using transient elastography data and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) were calculated using biochemical data. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of the FAST score, liver stiffness, NFS, FIB-4, and APRI were 0.752, 0.718, 0.609, 0.650, and 0.722 for NAFLD activity score (NAS) ≥5 (n = 117, 46.6%); 0.788, 0.754, 0.649, 0.701, and 0.747 for fatty liver inhibition of progression-NASH with histologic activity ≥3 (n = 202, 80.5%); 0.807, 0.806, 0.691, 0.732, and 0.760 for severe disease with activity ≥3 and/or fibrosis ≥3 (n = 132, 52.6%); and 0.714, 0.812, 0.748, 0.738, and 0.669 for NASH with NAS ≥4 and fibrosis ≥2 (n = 70, 27.9%), respectively. The FAST score had the highest AUC for the most high-risk NASH criteria, except for in predicting NAS ≥4 and fibrosis ≥2. The liver stiffness value showed consistently acceptable performance in predicting all high-risk NASH criteria. The FAST score has acceptable performance in identifying high-risk NASH. However, liver stiffness alone was not inferior to the FAST score.

Liver Stiffness-Based Risk Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. We established and validated a liver stiffness (LS)-based risk prediction model for HCC development in patients with NAFLD. A total of 2666 and 467 patients with NAFLD were recruited in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. NAFLD was defined as controlled attenuated parameter ≥238 dB/m by transient elastography. Over a median of 64.6 months, HCC developed in 22 (0.8%) subjects in the training cohort. Subjects who developed HCC were older and had higher prevalence of diabetes and cirrhosis, lower platelet count, and higher AST levels compared to those who did not develop HCC (all p < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, age ≥60 years (hazard ratio (HR) = 9.1), platelet count <150 × 10³/μL (HR = 3.7), and LS ≥9.3 kPa (HR = 13.8) were independent predictors (all p < 0.05) that were used to develop a risk prediction model for HCC development, together with AST ≥34 IU/L. AUCs for predicting HCC development at 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.948, 0.947, and 0.939, respectively. This model was validated in the validation cohort (AUC 0.777, 0.781, and 0.784 at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively). The new risk prediction model for NAFLD-related HCC development showed acceptable performance in the training and validation cohorts.

Non-invasive tests for predicting liver outcomes in chronic hepatitis C patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis leads to liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection. Although non-invasive tests (NITs) are critical to early detection of the development of liver fibrosis, the prognostic role of NITs remains unclear due to the limited types of NITs and liver outcomes explored in previous studies.

AIM

To determine the prognostic value of NITs for risk stratification in CHC patients.

METHODS

The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; no. CRD42019128176). The systematic review was performed in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Search was performed using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases under a timeframe from the inception of the databases through February 25, 2020. We restricted our search to CHC cohort studies reporting an association between liver fibrosis assessed by NITs and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensation, or mortality. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for each NIT were estimated using a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed for NITs assessed at pre-treatment or post-treatment with sustained virologic response (SVR), treatment with either pegylated interferon and ribavirin or direct acting antiviral, Eastern or Western countries, and different cutoff points.

RESULTS

The present meta-analysis included 29 cohort studies, enrolling 69339 CHC patients. Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio (APRI) score, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were found to have hepatocellular carcinoma predictive potential with pooled adjusted HRs of 2.48 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.91-3.23, I² = 96%], 4.24 (95%CI: 2.15-8.38, I² = 20%) and 7.90 (95%CI: 3.98-15.68, I² = 52%) and AUROCs of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.73-0.89, I² = 77%), 0.81 (95%CI: 0.75-0.87, I² = 68%), and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.63-0.96, I² = 90%), respectively. Pooled adjusted HR with a pre-treatment FIB-4 cutoff of 3.25 was 3.22 (95%CI: 2.32-4.47, I² = 80%). Pooled adjusted HRs for post-treatment with SVR FIB-4, APRI, and LSM were 3.01 (95%CI: 0.32-28.61, I² = 89%), 9.88 (95%CI: 2.21-44.17, I² = 24%), and 6.33 (95%CI: 2.57-15.59, I² = 17%), respectively. Pooled adjusted HRs for LSM in patients with SVR following direct acting antiviral therapy was 5.55 (95%CI: 1.47-21.02, I² = 36%). Pooled AUROCs for post-treatment with SVR FIB-4 and LSM were 0.75 (95%CI: 0.55-0.95, I² = 88%) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.66-1.03, I² = 88%), respectively. Additionally, FIB-4 and LSM were associated with overall mortality, with pooled adjusted HRs of 2.07 (95%CI: 1.49-2.88, I² = 27%) and 4.04 (95%CI: 2.40-6.80, I² = 63%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

FIB-4, APRI, and LSM showed potential for risk stratification in CHC patients. Cutoff levels need further validation.

Efficacy and safety of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir in 5,028 Mongolian patients infected with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF) shows high efficacy and safety in patients with genotype 1-hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of LDV/SOF in real-world Mongolian patients.

METHODS

Between 2015 to 2019, 23 (0.5%) and 5,005 patients (99.5%) with genotype 1a and 1b HCV, respectively, were treated with a fixed-dose tablet containing 90 mg ledipasvir and 400 mg sofosbuvir for 12 weeks, and 81 patients (1.6%) with previous experience of interferon (IFN)-based treatment received additional 1,000 mg ribavirin. HCV RNA was measured at 4, 12, and 24 weeks after the first dose to determine rapid virologic response, end of treatment response (ETR), and sustained virologic response at 12 weeks after end of treatment (SVR12).

RESULTS

Most patients (n=5,008; 99.6%) achieved ETR and SVR12 without virologic relapse. Patients with genotype 1a showed low rates of ETR and SVR12 in only 16 patients (69.6%). There was no significant difference in SVR12 rate between patients regardless of IFN experience (n=81; 1.6%), cirrhosis (n=1,151; 22.9%), HCV RNA >6×106 IU/mL (n=866; 17.2%), or liver stiffness >9.6 kPa (n=1,721; 34.2%) (100.0%, 99.3%, 99.4%, and 99.4%, respectively). No severe adverse events (AEs) were reported, and there was no dose reduction or interruption due to AE. The most common AEs were headache (n=472; 9.4%), fatigue (n=306; 6.2%), abdominal discomfort (n=295; 5.9%), and skin rash (n=141; 2.8%).

CONCLUSION

LDV/SOF showed high efficacy and safety for patients with genotype 1, especially 1b HCV, in Mongolia. The real-world data might be applicable to patients in other Asian-Pacific countries.

Point Shear-Wave Elastography Using Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse Imaging for the Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Chronic Viral Hepatitis

Chronic viral hepatitis is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of our study was to assess the ability of point shear-wave elastography (pSWE) using acoustic radiation force impulse imaging for the prediction of the following liver-related events (LREs): new diagnosis of HCC, liver transplantation, or liver-related death (hepatic decompensation was not included as an LRE). pSWE was performed at study inclusion and compared with liver histology, transient elastography (TE), and serologic biomarkers (aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, Fibrosis-4, FibroTest). The performance of pSWE and TE to predict LREs was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. A total of 254 patients with a median follow-up of 78 months were included in the study. LRE occurred in 28 patients (11%) during follow-up. In both patients with hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus (HCV), pSWE showed significant correlations with noninvasive tests and TE, and median pSWE and TE values were significantly different between patients with LREs and patients without LREs (both P < 0.0001). In patients with HCV, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for pSWE and TE to predict LREs were comparable: 0.859 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.747-0.969) and 0.852 (95% CI, 0.737-0.967) (P = 0.93). In Cox regression analysis, pSWE independently predicted LREs in all patients with HCV (hazard ratio, 17.9; 95% CI, 5.21-61-17; P < 0.0001) and those who later received direct-acting antiviral therapy (hazard ratio, 17.11; 95% CI, 3.88-75.55; P = 0.0002). Conclusion: Our study shows good comparability between pSWE and TE. pSWE is a promising tool for the prediction of LREs in patients with viral hepatitis, particularly those with chronic HCV. Further studies are needed to confirm our data and assess their prognostic value in other liver diseases.

Development and surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with sustained virologic response after antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major risk factor for liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and is a leading cause of liver-related deaths worldwide. Recently available direct-acting antiviral agent is very safe and highly effective (>95% sustained virologic response, SVR) against all genotypes of HCV. Achievement of SVR has been associated with a significant reduction of hepatic decompensation, development of HCC, and liver-related mortality. However, HCC risk is not eliminated even after SVR. The annual incidences of HCC in advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis have been estimated to be up to 2.5-4.5% even in patients with SVR. Therefore, surveillance for HCC is recommended in this high-risk patients. In this review, we will describe the clinical outcomes and the risk of HCC in patients with SVR and suggest who should receive surveillance for HCC.

Daclatasvir Plus Asunaprevir for the Treatment of Patients with Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 1b Infection: Real-World Efficacy, Changes in Liver Stiffness and Fibrosis Markers, and Safety

Background/Aims

The treatment with daclatasvir plus asunaprevir (DCV+ASV) is associated with potent antiviral effects in patients with genotype 1b hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We investigated the real-world efficacy, changes in liver stiffness and noninvasive fibrosis markers, and the safety of DCV+ASV treatment in Korean patients.

Methods

In total, 363 patients with chronic hepatitis C were treated with DCV+ASV between August 2015 and January 2017. Finally, we analyzed the data of 270 patients who were monitored for at least 12 weeks after the end of treatment.

Results

The mean age was 60.7 years, and females predominated (60.4%). Most patients (64.8%) were treatment-naïve, and 56 patients (20.7%) had cirrhosis. Two hundred fifty-seven (95.2%) and 251 (93.0%) patients achieved end-of-treatment responses and sustained virological responses at 12 weeks posttreatment (SVR12), respectively. The SVR12 rates were higher in patients who were <65 years of age, males, without cirrhosis and had lower HCV RNA levels. All LS values and fibrosis-4 and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index values declined from baseline to the time of assessment of SVR12.

Conclusions

The DCV+ASV therapy resulted in a high SVR12 and improved liver fibrosis; the treatment was well tolerated in patients with genotype 1b HCV infections.

Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Chronic HCV Infection Results in Liver Stiffness Regression Over 12 Months Post-treatment

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis stage determines risk of morbidity and mortality from chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Prior data have shown long-term reversal of liver fibrosis, measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), in patients successfully treated with interferon-based therapies.

AIM

Our study sought to determine the effect of treatment with modern HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy on noninvasive liver fibrosis measurements.

METHODS

A total of 70 patients had VCTE-based liver stiffness measurement (LSM) taken before treatment, directly after treatment completion, and at least 12 months after completion of DAA therapy. Our primary outcome was a >30% improvement in VCTE score at the end of follow-up, relative to baseline.

RESULTS

The sustained virologic response rate in our cohort was 95.7%. In our cohort, 34 (48.6%) met the primary outcome. Those who had baseline elevated alanine aminotransferase (OR 3.27; 95% CI 1.13-9.47) and genotype 1 (OR 14.63; 95% CI 1.70-125.83) had higher odds of meeting that outcome, and this remained significant after adjusting for age, baseline body mass index, gender, baseline elevated alkaline phosphatase levels, treatment experience, liver transplant status, smoking, and baseline liver stiffness.

CONCLUSION

Treatment of chronic HCV with modern DAA therapy was associated with a significant improvement in LSM by VCTE measurement, suggesting possible early improvement in liver fibrosis along with resolution of inflammation over the first year after treatment completion.

Liver stiffness measurement predicts liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis C: A retrospective study

The management of patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) depends on their clinical stage. Thus, noninvasive early recognition of patients with CHC at high risk for developing liver-related events (LREs) is important because it ensures optimal preventative management strategies may be employed that can affect the course of CHC disease. Our aim was to determine whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients is associated with a risk of LREs, particularly in cirrhotic patients. We carried out a retrospective study on 343 HCV-infected patients stratified according to cirrhosis (LSM<12.5 kPa vs. LSM≥12.5 kPa), and the cirrhotic patient group (LSM≥12.5 kPa) was divided according to risk of esophageal varices (LSM <25 kPa vs. LSM≥25 kPa). For all patients, each incremental unit in the natural logarithm (Ln) of LSM was associated with 14.76 times higher risk of developing LREs (p<0.001). Patients with cirrhosis (LSM≥12.5 kPa) had a higher risk of LREs than patients without cirrhosis (LSM<12.5 kPa) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 30.97; p<0.001]. When only cirrhotic patients were analyzed (n = 60), each incremental unit in the Ln of LSM was associated with 10.56 times higher risk of developing LREs (p = 0.010). Patients with LSM≥25 kPa had a greater risk for LRE development compared to those with LSM<25 kPa (aHR = 3.65; p = 0.045). The AUROC for predicting the onset of LREs was 0.876 in all patients and 0.729 in cirrhotic patients. In conclusion, LSM was associated with an increased risk of developing LREs in HCV-infected patients, even within the group of cirrhotic patients.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infection and pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is one of the major causes of advanced liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. While the knowledge about the molecular virology of HCV infection has markedly advanced, the molecular mechanisms of disease progression leading to fibrosis, cirrhosis and HCC are still unclear. Accumulating experimental and clinical studies indicate that HCV may drive hepatocarcinogenesis directly via its proteins or transcripts, and/or indirectly through induction of chronic liver inflammation. Despite the possibility to eradicate HCV infection through direct-acting antiviral treatment, the risk of HCC persists although specific biomarkers to estimate this risk are still missing. Thus, a better understanding of HCV-induced HCC and more physiological liver disease models are required to prevent cancer development.

Use of Wisteria Floribunda Agglutinin-Positive Human Mac-2 Binding Protein in Assessing Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Due to Hepatitis B Virus

Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive human Mac-2 binding protein (WFA-M2BP) is a serologic marker corresponding with degree of hepatic fibrosis. We evaluated its accuracy in assessing hepatic fibrosis and in predicting the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).In a 5-year period (2009-2013), a total of 95 CHB patients with available serum WFA-M2BP assay and transient elastography assessment [to assess liver stiffness (LS)] who had undergone liver biopsy were recruited for retrospective analysis.Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting fibrosis stages via serum WFA-M2BP level were as follows: ≥F2, 0.688; ≥F3, 0.694; and F4, 0.704 (all P < 0.05). During the follow-up period (median, 45 months), HCC developed in 7 patients (7.4%). In patients with HCC, age, use of antiviral therapy, test parameters (HBV DNA, WFA-M2BP, and LS determinations), and histologic stage of fibrosis were all significantly greater than in those free of HCC, whereas platelet count was significantly lower (all P < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, WFA-M2BP was found independently predictive of emergent HCC [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.375; P = 0.036], although LS and histologic stage of fibrosis were not (P > 0.05). Risk of developing HCC was significantly greater in patients with high WFA-M2BP levels (≥1.8) (adjusted HR = 11.5; P = 0.025). Cumulative incidence rates of HCC were also significantly higher in patients with high (vs. low) levels of WFA-M2BP (log-rank test, P = 0.016).WFA-M2BP determination significantly reflected degree/extent of hepatic fibrosis and independently predicted the risk of developing HCC in patients with CHB.