A scoring system for the prediction of choledocholithiasis: a prospective cohort study

Predictive model of persistent choledocholithiasis in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Choledocholithiasis causing acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) may migrate to the duodenum or persist in the common bile duct (CBD). We developed a model for predicting persistent choledocholithiasis (PC) in patients with ABP.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 204 patients, age ≥18 years (mean age: 73 years, 65.7% women), admitted for ABP in 2013-2018, with at least a magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS), and/or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Epidemiological, analytical, imaging, and endoscopic variables were compared between patients with and without PC. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a predictive model of PC.

RESULTS

Patients underwent MRCP (n=145, 71.1), MRCP and ERCP (n=44, 21.56%), EUS and ERCP (n=1, 0.49%), or ERCP (n=14, 6.86%). PC was detected in 49 patients (24%). PC was strongly associated with CBD dilation, detected in the emergency ultrasound (p<0.001; OR=27; 95% CI: 5.8-185.5), increased blood levels of gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, detected at 72h (p=0.008; OR=3.4; 95% CI: 1.5-8.9); and biliary sludge in the gallbladder (p=0.008; OR=0.03; 95% CI: 0.001-0.3).

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive model showed a validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.858 for detecting PC in patients with ABP. A nomogram was developed based on model results.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive model was highly effective in detecting PC in patients with ABP. Therefore, this model could be useful in clinical practice.

Machine learning models compared to existing criteria for noninvasive prediction of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography-confirmed choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Noninvasive predictors of choledocholithiasis have generally exhibited marginal performance characteristics. We aimed to identify noninvasive independent predictors of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)-confirmed choledocholithiasis and accordingly developed predictive machine learning models (MLMs).

METHODS

Clinical data of consecutive patients undergoing first-ever ERCP for suspected choledocholithiasis from 2015-2019 were abstracted from a prospectively-maintained database. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify predictors of ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis. MLMs were then trained to predict ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis using pre-ERCP ultrasound (US) imaging only and separately using all available noninvasive imaging (US/CT/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography). The diagnostic performance of American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) "high-likelihood" criteria was compared to MLMs.

RESULTS

We identified 270 patients (mean age 46 years, 62.2% female, 73.7% Hispanic/Latino, 59% with noninvasive imaging positive for choledocholithiasis) with native papilla who underwent ERCP for suspected choledocholithiasis, of whom 230 (85.2%) were found to have ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis. Logistic regression identified choledocholithiasis on noninvasive imaging (odds ratio (OR) = 3.045, P = 0.004) and common bile duct (CBD) diameter on noninvasive imaging (OR=1.157, P = 0.011) as predictors of ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis. Among the various MLMs trained, the random forest-based MLM performed best; sensitivity was 61.4% and 77.3% and specificity was 100% and 75.0%, using US-only and using all available imaging, respectively. ASGE high-likelihood criteria demonstrated sensitivity of 90.9% and specificity of 25.0%; using cut-points achieving this specificity, MLMs achieved sensitivity up to 97.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

MLMs using age, sex, race, presence of diabetes, fever, body mass index (BMI), total bilirubin, maximum CBD diameter, and choledocholithiasis on pre-ERCP noninvasive imaging predict ERCP-confirmed choledocholithiasis with good sensitivity and specificity and outperform the ASGE criteria for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis.

Factors related to the spontaneous passage of common bile duct stones through the papilla: a single-center retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Common bile duct (CBD) stones can spontaneously pass through the papilla. This study explored factors associated with stone passage by comparing differences in the clinical features of stones retained in the CBD and excreted stones.

METHODS

Data were retrospectively collected for all patients who were hospitalized in our center between March 2016 and May 2021 with clinical, laboratory, or imaging evidence of CBD stones. All patients underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and were classified into two groups: group A (stones extracted by ERCP, n = 86) and group B (stones discharged before ERCP, n = 15). Demographic data, biochemical and radiological findings were compared between the groups.

RESULTS

Stone size (0.82 vs. 0.33 cm), and levels of total bilirubin (58.2 vs. 28.8 μmol/L), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (416.7 vs. 193.9 U/L), alkaline phosphatase (191.9 vs. 123.1 U/L), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (603.7 vs. 37.2 U/mL), and α-L-fucosidase (37.4 vs. 22.6 U/L) were significantly higher in group A than in group B. Logistic regression analyses showed that stone size was the only factor significantly associated with spontaneous passage of CBD stones.

CONCLUSIONS

CBD stones less than 0.33 cm in size may be self-expelled through the papilla.

The Diagnostic Yield of Magnetic Resonance Cholangiopancreatography in the Setting of Acute Pancreaticobiliary Disease - A Single Center Experience

PURPOSE

To discern whether preceding ultrasound (US) results, patient demographics and biochemical markers can be implemented as predictors of an abnormal Magnetic Resonance Cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) study in the context of acute pancreaticobiliary disease.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed assessing US results, age, gender, elevated lipase and biliary enzymes for consecutive patients who underwent an urgent MRCP following an initial US for acute pancreaticobiliary disease between January 2017-December 2018. Multivariable binary logistic regression models were constructed to assess for predictors of clinically significant MRCPs, and discrepant US/MRCP results.

RESULTS

A total of 155 patients (mean age 56, 111 females) were included. Age (OR 1.03, P < 0.05), hyperlipasemia (OR 5.33, P < 0.05) and a positive US (OR 40.75, P < 0.05) were found to be independent predictors for a subsequent abnormal MRCP. Contrarily, gender and elevated biliary enzymes were not reliable predictors of an abnormal MRCP, or significant MRCP/US discrepancies. Of 66 cases (43%) of discordant US/MRCPs, half had clinically significant discrepant findings such as newly discovered choledocholithiasis and pancreaticobiliary neoplasia. Age was the sole predictor for a significant US/MRCP discrepancy, with 2% increase in the odds of a significant discrepancy per year of increase in age.

CONCLUSION

An abnormal US, hyperlipasemia and increased age serve as predictors for a subsequent abnormal MRCP, as opposed to gender and biliary enzyme elevation. Age was the sole predictor of a significant US/MRCP discrepancy that provided new information which significantly impacted subsequent management. In the remaining cases, however, MRCP proved useful in reaffirming the clinical diagnosis and avoiding further investigations.

Health informatics publication trends in Saudi Arabia: a bibliometric analysis over the last twenty-four years

OBJECTIVE

Understanding health informatics (HI) publication trends in Saudi Arabia may serve as a framework for future research efforts and contribute toward meeting national "e-Health" goals. The authors' intention was to understand the state of the HI field in Saudi Arabia by exploring publication trends and their alignment with national goals.

METHODS

A scoping review was performed to identify HI publications from Saudi Arabia in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. We analyzed publication trends based on topics, keywords, and how they align with the Ministry of Health's (MOH's) "digital health journey" framework.

RESULTS

The total number of publications included was 242. We found 1 (0.4%) publication in 1995-1999, 11 (4.5%) publications in 2000-2009, and 230 (95.0%) publications in 2010-2019. We categorized publications into 3 main HI fields and 4 subfields: 73.1% (n=177) of publications were in clinical informatics (85.1%, n=151 medical informatics; 5.6%, n=10 pharmacy informatics; 6.8%, n=12 nursing informatics; 2.3%, n=4 dental informatics); 22.3% (n=54) were in consumer health informatics; and 4.5% (n=11) were in public health informatics. The most common keyword was "medical informatics" (21.5%, n=52). MOH framework-based analysis showed that most publications were categorized as "digitally enabled care" and "digital health foundations."

CONCLUSIONS

The years of 2000-2009 may be seen as an infancy stage of the HI field in Saudi Arabia. Exploring how the Saudi Arabian MOH's e-Health initiatives may influence research is valuable for advancing the field. Data exchange and interoperability, artificial intelligence, and intelligent health enterprises might be future research directions in Saudi Arabia.

Combination of CT findings can reliably predict radiolucent common bile duct stones: a novel approach using a CT-based nomogram

OBJECTIVES

To identify CT features that reliably predict the presence of radiolucent common bile duct (CBD) stones.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 112 patients (mean age, 60.6 years) with clinically suspected CBD stones that were not visible on CT. All patients had undergone CT followed by endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) to confirm the presence (n = 66) or absence (n = 46) of CBD stones. Two radiologists independently evaluated the CT images. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify demographic, laboratory, and CT predictors for CBD stones. We developed a nomogram based on these results and assessed its performance.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm (odds ratio [OR], 10.12; p < 0.001), pericholecystic fat infiltration (OR, 3.76, p = 0.014), and papillitis (OR, 2.85; p < 0.049) were independent CT predictors of CBD stones. Combination of all three features had a specificity of 100%. Of these features, CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm was the best single predictor. The CT-based nomogram had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.847 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.777-0.916) and an accuracy of 77.7% (95% CI, 69.1-84.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of significant CT features (CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm, pericholecystic fat infiltration, and papillitis) translated into a nomogram allows a reliable estimation of CBD stone presence. It may serve as a decision support tool to determine whether to proceed to further diagnostic tests or treatment option.

KEY POINTS

• CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm (odds ratio [OR] = 10.12, p < 0.001), pericholecystic fat infiltration (OR = 3.76, p = 0.014), and papillitis (OR = 2.85, p = 0.049) were independent predictors of radiolucent CBD stones. • A CBD diameter ≥ 8 mm was the best predictor of CBD stones. • A nomogram based on a combination of these three CT signs predicted the presence of CBD stones and helped classify patients that should go immediately to ERCP, those who require a further investigation, and those who can safely be managed conservatively.

Bilirubin Correlation May Preclude MRCP in Acute Cholecystitis Patients With Normal Common Bile Duct Diameter

OBJECTIVE. In patients with acute cholecystitis (AC), accurate identification of a common bile duct (CBD) stone before cholecystectomy is of concern for surgeons, gastroenterologists, and radiologists. This study evaluates the utility of preoperative MRCP taking into consideration both sonographic findings and biochemical predictors for choledocholithiasis. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Fifty-seven patients (58% women; mean age, 54 years old) with signs of AC on right upper quadrant (RUQ) ultrasound (US) who underwent subsequent MRCP from 2007 to 2017 were identified using a text-based search and retrospectively analyzed, using ERCP as the reference standard. RESULTS. For patients with AC who had a normal CBD diameter on initial RUQ US, we found a significant difference in the total and direct bilirubin levels of patients who had positive (1.94 vs 4.02 mg/dL, respectively; p = 0.013) and negative (0.71 vs 2.13 mg/dL, respectively; p = 0.02) findings for CBD stone on MRCP. ROC curve analysis showed an increased total bilirubin threshold of > 2.3 mg/dL (standard threshold, 1.2 mg/dL), which yielded a negative predictive value (NPV) of 95%. An increased direct bilirubin threshold of > 0.9 mg/dL (standard threshold, 0.2 mg/dL) yielded an NPV of 100%. CONCLUSION. In patients with AC who have a normal CBD diameter on RUQ US, normal or even mildly elevated bilirubin levels below a calculated threshold may obviate preoperative MRCP. Radiologists should be active participants in clinical decision-making; discussion between referring physicians and radiologists regarding biochemical markers and sonographic findings will lead to more appropriate use of preoperative imaging.