Tropospheric ozone in CCMI models and Gaussian process emulation to understand biases in the SOCOLv3 chemistry-climate model

A cautious note advocating the use of ensembles of models and driving data in modeling of regional ozone burdens

We investigate the performance of two widely used chemistry-transport models (CTMs) with different chemical mechanisms in reproducing the ambient maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O3) burden over Central Europe. We explore a base case setup with boundary conditions (BC) for meteorology from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and chemical BC from CAM-Chem as well as effects of alterations in these BC based on global model fields. Our results show that changes in meteorological BC strongly affect the correlation with observations but only marginally affect the model biases, while changes in chemical BC increase model biases while correlation patterns remain largely unchanged. Furthermore, our study highlights that CTM choice (and choice of chemical mechanism) has a similar or even larger impact on MDA8 O3 levels as the impact of altered BC. In summary, our study calls for a multi-model strategy combining different CTM and BC combinations to explore the bandwidth of MDA8 O3 distributions and thus uncertainty in hindcasts and future projections, in analogy to climate studies considering ensemble simulations under the same anthropogenic emissions but with slightly different initial conditions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11869-024-01516-3.

Global Warming Potential (GWP) for Methane: Monte Carlo Analysis of the Uncertainties in Global Tropospheric Model Predictions

Estimates of the global warming potential (GWP) of methane rely on the predictions from global chemistry-transport models. These models employ many uncertain input parameters representing the sources and sinks for methane and those for the tropospheric ozone, which is formed as a by-product of the methane sink process. Five thousand quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs employing a zonally averaged global model were completed, each with a base case and a pulse case that differed from the base case only in having an additional 149 Tg (1Tg = 109 kg) emission pulse of methane. Each of the five thousand pulse case experiments had a small excess of methane that decayed away throughout the twenty-year model experiment. The radiative forcing consequences of this excess methane, and the excess tropospheric ozone formed from it, were integrated over a 100-year time horizon. The GWP was calculated in each of the five thousand model experiments from the sum of the radiative forcing consequences of methane and tropospheric ozone, by expressing them relative to the radiative forcing consequences of an identical emission pulse of carbon dioxide. The 2-sigma confidence range surrounding the methane atmospheric lifetime estimated in the Monte Carlo analysis was considerably wider than that derived from observations, suggesting that some of the input parameter combinations may have been unrealistic. The rejection of the unrealistic Monte Carlo replicates increased the mean methane GWP and narrowed its 2-sigma confidence interval to 37 ± 10 over a 100-year time horizon for emission pulses of the order of 1 Tg. Multiple linear regression was used to attribute the uncertainty in the output GWPs to each of the 183 uncertain input parameters, which represented emission source sectors, chemical kinetic rate coefficients, dry deposition velocities and biases in temperature and water vapour concentrations. Overall, the only significant contributions to the uncertainty in the methane GWP came from the chemical kinetic parameters representing the CH4 + OH, CH3O2 + HO2, CH3O2 + NO and the terpene + O3 reaction rate coefficients.

Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.