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Werner M, Guzikowski J, Kryza M, Malkiewicz M, Bilińska D, Skjøth CA, Rapiejko P, Chłopek K, Dąbrowska-Zapart K, Lipiec A, Jurkiewicz D, Kalinowska E, Majkowska-Wojciechowska B, Myszkowska D, Piotrowska-Weryszko K, Puc M, Rapiejko A, Siergiejko G, Weryszko-Chmielewska E, Wieczorkiewicz A, Ziemianin M. Extension of WRF-Chem for birch pollen modelling-a case study for Poland. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2021; 65:513-526. [PMID: 33175212 PMCID: PMC7985125 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02045-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2020] [Revised: 09/29/2020] [Accepted: 10/31/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
In recent years, allergies due to airborne pollen allergens have shown an increasing trend, along with the severity of allergic symptoms in most industrialized countries, while synergism with other common atmospheric pollutants has also been identified as affecting the overall quality of citizenly life. In this study, we propose the state-of-the-art WRF-Chem model, which is a complex Eulerian meteorological model integrated on-line with atmospheric chemistry. We used a combination of the WRF-Chem extended towards birch pollen, and the emission module based on heating degree days, which has not been tested before. The simulations were run for the moderate season in terms of birch pollen concentrations (year 2015) and high season (year 2016) over Central Europe, which were validated against 11 observational stations located in Poland. The results show that there is a big difference in the model's performance for the two modelled years. In general, the model overestimates birch pollen concentrations for the moderate season and highly underestimates birch pollen concentrations for the year 2016. The model was able to predict birch pollen concentrations for first allergy symptoms (above 20 pollen m-3) as well as for severe symptoms (above 90 pollen m-3) with probability of detection at 0.78 and 0.68 and success ratio at 0.75 and 0.57, respectively for the year 2015. However, the model failed to reproduce these parameters for the year 2016. The results indicate the potential role of correcting the total seasonal pollen emission in improving the model's performance, especially for specific years in terms of pollen productivity. The application of chemical transport models such as WRF-Chem for pollen modelling provides a great opportunity for simultaneous simulations of chemical air pollution and allergic pollen with one goal, which is a step forward for studying and understanding the co-exposure of these particles in the air.
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Affiliation(s)
- Małgorzata Werner
- Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wroclaw, Ul. Kosiby 8, 51-621, Wroclaw, Poland.
| | - Jakub Guzikowski
- Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wroclaw, Ul. Kosiby 8, 51-621, Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Maciej Kryza
- Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wroclaw, Ul. Kosiby 8, 51-621, Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Małgorzata Malkiewicz
- Laboratory of Paleobotany, Department of Stratigraphical Geology, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Wroclaw, Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Daria Bilińska
- Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection, University of Wroclaw, Ul. Kosiby 8, 51-621, Wroclaw, Poland
| | | | - Piotr Rapiejko
- Department of Otolaryngology with Division of Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery, Military Institute of Medicine, Warsaw, Poland
- Allergen Research Center Ltd., Warsaw, Poland
| | - Kazimiera Chłopek
- Faculty of Natural Sciences, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Katowice, Poland
| | - Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Zapart
- Faculty of Natural Sciences, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Katowice, Poland
| | - Agnieszka Lipiec
- Department of Prevention of Environmental Hazards and Allergology, Medical University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Dariusz Jurkiewicz
- Department of Otolaryngology with Division of Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery, Military Institute of Medicine, Warsaw, Poland
| | | | | | - Dorota Myszkowska
- Department of Clinical and Environmental Allergology, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland
| | | | - Małgorzata Puc
- Institute of Marine & Environmental Sciences, University of Szczecin, Szczecin, Poland
| | | | - Grzegorz Siergiejko
- Pediatrics, Gastroenterology and Allergology Department, University Children Hospital, Bialystok, Poland
| | | | | | - Monika Ziemianin
- Department of Clinical and Environmental Allergology, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland
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