A multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain based LULC change analysis and prediction using remote sensing data in Prayagraj district, India

Land use land cover (LULC) mapping and temporal observations are indispensable drivers for sustainable development. This research showed the growth trends and land use transition for the Prayagraj district in the last three decades. Supervised classification of Landsat images was performed on 5-year temporal intervals using a maximum likelihood classifier. All satellite images were organized into six major LULC feature classes viz agriculture/open land, barren land, built-up, forest, sand, and water. The overall accuracy of LULC classification was achieved by more than 89% in all seven temporal points. Furthermore, the accuracy of the classified maps was estimated through area-based error matrix. The Land Change Modeler tool of TerrSet 2020 software was used to analyze the transition of classes and to incorporate the multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain (MLP-MC) technique. The transition potentials were included in MLP-MC with the help of sensitive explanatory variables and significant transitions of classes. Furthermore, these transition potentials and the Markov chain transition matrix were used to predict the future LULC dynamics and vulnerability. The change analysis revealed that a significant portion of the agriculture/open land gradually decreased and got converted to built-up land. The results depicted that agriculture/open land was reduced by 8.03% in the last three decades while the built-up region was grown by 199.61%. Forest area was continuously decreasing while the sand area increased due to river meandering. Overall, more than 75% of accuracy was achieved in MLP. The prediction model was first validated with observed data, and then the LULC scenario of 2035 and 2050 was simulated. LULC of 2050 showed that the built-up area would likely reach 13.90% of district area whereas the forest area would remain only 0.79%. The prediction model has given the output in the form of future LULC map along with projected potential transition maps. This would be useful for sustainable urban planning to deal with the alarming rate of built-up growth and agriculture/open land shrinkage.

Evaluation of seasonal ecological vulnerability using LULC and thermal state dynamics using Landsat and MODIS data: a case study of Prayagraj City, India (1987-2018)

Prayagraj city (India) has been selected as a smart city by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Government of India in 2015. However, long-term spatiotemporal seasonal Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) dynamics and Land Surface Temperature (LST) interactions with ecological vulnerability for different seasons are lacking. Accordingly, this research has been carried out to study the seasonal (summer and winter) LULC and its change pattern, thermal dynamics, and their role in exploring the ecological state over Prayagraj city and its surroundings using multi-temporal Landsat (1987-2018) and MODIS Terra data (2007-2018) at both diurnal and nocturnal scenarios. The LULC classification was carried out using Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) by adopting the Anderson classification scheme with more than 85% of overall accuracy. The Landsat data-based LST has been estimated using Mono-Window Algorithm (MWA) for diurnal scenario whereas MODIS-based LST was calculated for nocturnal scenario. Ecological vulnerability state has been evaluated both in day-time and night-time using Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI) in summer and winter during 1987-2018 and 2007-2018, respectively. Overall, built-up land increased the most by 18.25% which was responsible for massive urbanization during 1987-2018. In contrast, forest land decreased by 2.22% during 1987-2018. The most vulnerable class was agriculture land followed by forest land irrespective of seasons. Thermal state was intensified by mean LST by 1.25 ℃ in summer and 0.58 ℃ in winter in day-time. However, in night-time, the mean LST intensified by 6.64 ℃ in summer and 1.86 ℃ in winter. The excellent ecological class having no SUHI effects declined in summer during 1988-2018 by 1.59% but surged in winter by 12.33% during 1987-2018 in north-west regions at day-time, whereas in night-time the excellent ecological class having no SUHI effects severely declined in summer as well as in winter during 2007-2018 by 11.1% and 1.32%, respectively. However, the worst ecological class having strongest SUHI effects severely spread in night-times compared to day-time which mainly concentrated in central core part of the city during 2007-2018 by 5.33%. The present study has generated a comprehensive long-term geospatial database which can be used for urban planning to achieve sustainable development to make Prayagraj city a truly smart city in future.

Urban modelling and forecasting of landuse using SLEUTH model

The present study performs landcover modelling using the SLEUTH model. The urban land use changing factors are calibrated to predict the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) for a densely populated and developing smart city, Prayagraj, India. This research aims to use the SLEUTH model for simulating the future urban growth with the help of historical LULC (1990-2020), road network and elevation data. The influence of road gravity and slope resistant coefficients is very significant in this study's outcome. The built-up area of the region increased from 40.22 km² (5.10% of total area) in 1990 to 85.89 km² (10.89%) in 2020. According to prediction results, in the next 20 years, the built-up growth rate would be 1.9% and approximated built-up area would be 118.66 km² (14.98%) in the year 2040. The quality of the result has been quantified in terms of best fit value of Optimal SLEUTH Metric (OSM) and validated against the existing LULC. The study utilises a spatially explicit urban growth model with 30 m resolution remote sensing data and provides future landuse of Prayagraj city.