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Pulliam JRC, van Schalkwyk C, Govender N, von Gottberg A, Cohen C, Groome MJ, Dushoff J, Mlisana K, Moultrie H. Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa. Science 2022. [PMID: 35289632 DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 175] [Impact Index Per Article: 87.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/22/2023]
Abstract
We provide two methods for monitoring reinfection trends in routine surveillance data to identify signatures of changes in reinfection risk and apply these approaches to data from South Africa's severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic to date. Although we found no evidence of increased reinfection risk associated with circulation of the Beta (B.1.351) or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, we did find clear, population-level evidence to suggest immune evasion by the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in previously infected individuals in South Africa. Reinfections occurring between 1 November 2021 and 31 January 2022 were detected in individuals infected in all three previous waves, and there has been an increase in the risk of having a third infection since mid-November 2021.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliet R C Pulliam
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Cari van Schalkwyk
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Nevashan Govender
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Michelle J Groome
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jonathan Dushoff
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Koleka Mlisana
- National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
| | - Harry Moultrie
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Pulliam JRC, van Schalkwyk C, Govender N, von Gottberg A, Cohen C, Groome MJ, Dushoff J, Mlisana K, Moultrie H. Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa. Science 2022. [PMID: 35289632 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6108448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
We provide two methods for monitoring reinfection trends in routine surveillance data to identify signatures of changes in reinfection risk and apply these approaches to data from South Africa's severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic to date. Although we found no evidence of increased reinfection risk associated with circulation of the Beta (B.1.351) or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, we did find clear, population-level evidence to suggest immune evasion by the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in previously infected individuals in South Africa. Reinfections occurring between 1 November 2021 and 31 January 2022 were detected in individuals infected in all three previous waves, and there has been an increase in the risk of having a third infection since mid-November 2021.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliet R C Pulliam
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Cari van Schalkwyk
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Nevashan Govender
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Michelle J Groome
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jonathan Dushoff
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Koleka Mlisana
- National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
| | - Harry Moultrie
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Pulliam JRC, van Schalkwyk C, Govender N, von Gottberg A, Cohen C, Groome MJ, Dushoff J, Mlisana K, Moultrie H. Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa. Science 2022. [PMID: 35289632 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5807591] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
We provide two methods for monitoring reinfection trends in routine surveillance data to identify signatures of changes in reinfection risk and apply these approaches to data from South Africa's severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic to date. Although we found no evidence of increased reinfection risk associated with circulation of the Beta (B.1.351) or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, we did find clear, population-level evidence to suggest immune evasion by the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in previously infected individuals in South Africa. Reinfections occurring between 1 November 2021 and 31 January 2022 were detected in individuals infected in all three previous waves, and there has been an increase in the risk of having a third infection since mid-November 2021.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliet R C Pulliam
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Cari van Schalkwyk
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - Nevashan Govender
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Michelle J Groome
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jonathan Dushoff
- South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Koleka Mlisana
- National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
| | - Harry Moultrie
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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