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Du J, Bao Z, Liang T, Zhao H, Zhao J, Xu R, Wang X. Risk factors for metachronous esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after endoscopic or surgical resection of esophageal carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1241572. [PMID: 37781208 PMCID: PMC10540085 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1241572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 08/21/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Background early-stage esophageal carcinoma (EC) patients lack typical clinical signs and symptoms and are often diagnosed and treated at a late stage, leading to a poor prognosis and a high incidence of metachronous esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (MESCC) and second primary carcinoma (SPC). The aims of the review were to identify and quantify risk factors for MESCC and analysis location of SPC in postoperative patients with EC; to predict incidence of MESCC over follow-up time. Methods an electronic search of studies reporting potential risk factors, the incidence of MESCC, and the location of SPC were performed on PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Scopus from inception to 10 November 2022. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to assess the study quality, and the qualitative strength of evidence rating of all items was provided. The meta-regression model was used to predict the incidence of MESCC over follow-up time, the location distribution of SPC was presented using clustered column chart, while the publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. Results smoking, age, history of multiple other cancer, and Lugol-voiding lesions (LVLs) were determined to be the risk factors of MESCC. LVLs were qualitatively determined as "definite" and the history of multiple other cancer as "likely." The overall pooled MESCC incidence was 20.3% (95% CI: 13.8% to 26.8%), with an increase of 0.20% for each additional year of follow-up. The head and neck were the most common locations for SPC, followed by the esophagus. Conclusion timely investigating the age of patients, previous history of cancer and monitoring the number of LVLs in the first 5 years after operation are of great significance to identify high-risk populations of MESCC for timely medical care. Education and behavior correction about smoking are advocated. Tumor markers should be regularly detected in the head and neck, esophagus, and stomach. Endoscopic resection was associated with a higher incidence of MESCC, which provided a reference for doctors to choose the removal method. Systematic review registration https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, identifier CRD42022377030.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Du
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Zhixian Bao
- The First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Key Laboratory for Gastrointestinal Diseases of Gansu Province, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Tianhu Liang
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Hongmei Zhao
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Junxian Zhao
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Ruipu Xu
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Talent Service Center, Gansu Provincial Health Commission, Lanzhou, China
| | - Xiaohui Wang
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
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van Tilburg L, van de Ven SEM, Spaander MCW, van Kleef LA, Cornelissen R, Bruno MJ, Koch AD. Prevalence of lung tumors in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and vice versa: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 2022; 149:1811-1823. [PMID: 35737094 PMCID: PMC10097754 DOI: 10.1007/s00432-022-04103-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 05/30/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE Recent reports suggest an increased prevalence of lung second primary tumors (LSPTs) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients and vice versa. However, the exact prevalence of SPTs remains unclear and screening for these SPTs is currently not routinely performed in western countries. We aimed to report on the prevalence of LSPTs in patients with ESCC and esophageal second primary tumors (ESPTs) in patients with lung cancer (LC). METHODS Databases were searched until 25 March 2021 for studies reporting the prevalence of LSPTs in ESCC or vice versa. Pooled prevalences with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of SPTs were calculated with inverse variance, random-effects models and Clopper-Pearson. RESULTS Nineteen studies in ESCC patients and 20 studies in LC patients were included. The pooled prevalence of LSPTs in patients with ESCC was 1.8% (95% CI 1.4-2.3%). For ESPTs in LC patients, the pooled prevalence was 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.4%). The prevalence of LSPTs in ESCC patients was significantly higher in patients treated curatively compared to studies also including palliative patients (median 2.5% versus 1.3%). This difference was consistent for the ESPT prevalence in LC patients (treated curatively median 1.3% versus 0.1% for all treatments). Over 50% of the detected SPTs were squamous cell carcinomas and were diagnosed metachronously. CONCLUSION Patients with ESCC and LC have an increased risk of developing SPTs in the lungs and esophagus. However, the relatively low SPT prevalence rates do not justify screening in these patients. Further research should focus on risk stratification to identify subgroups of patients at highest risk of SPT development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laurelle van Tilburg
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Steffi E M van de Ven
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Manon C W Spaander
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Laurens A van Kleef
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Robin Cornelissen
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marco J Bruno
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Arjun D Koch
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
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Mitani S, Kato K, Daiko H, Ito Y, Nozaki I, Kojima T, Yano M, Nakagawa S, Ueno M, Watanabe M, Tsunoda S, Abe T, Kadowaki S, Kadota T, Sasaki K, Machida R, Kitagawa Y. Second primary malignancies in patients with clinical T1bN0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after definitive therapies: supplementary analysis of the JCOG trial: JCOG0502. J Gastroenterol 2022; 57:455-463. [PMID: 35546373 PMCID: PMC9232445 DOI: 10.1007/s00535-022-01870-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2021] [Accepted: 02/26/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies have suggested that patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) are still at a high risk of developing second primary malignancies (SPMs) after definitive therapies. We evaluated the development of SPMs and explored its risk factors in patients with clinical T1bN0 ESCC. METHODS JCOG0502 prospectively compared esophagectomy with definitive chemo-radiotherapy for clinical T1bN0 ESCC. Here, we reviewed all JCOG0502 patients' data for SPMs and investigated the risk factors for SPMs using uni-variable and multivariable analyses by Fine and Gray model. RESULTS Among 379 enrolled patients, 213 underwent esophagectomy and 166 received chemo-radiotherapy. Patient characteristics were male (85%); median age [63 (range 41-75) years; location of the primary tumor (upper/middle/lower thoracic esophagus, 11%/63%/27%, respectively]; alcohol consumption history (79%); smoking history (66%); prevalence of no/several/many/unknown Lugol-voiding lesions (LVLs) (45%/36%/8%/11%, respectively). In a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 118 SPMs occurred in 99 (26%) patients. Cumulative incidences of SPMs after 3, 5, and 10 years were 9%, 15%, and 36%, respectively. The most common primary tumor sites were the head and neck (35%), stomach (20%) and lungs (14%). In multivariable analyses, compared to no LVLs, several LVLs [hazard ratio (HR) 2.24, 95% confidential interval (CI) 1.32-3.81] and many LVLs (HR 2.88, 95% CI 1.27-6.52) were significantly associated with the development of SPMs. Sixteen patients died due to the SPMs. CONCLUSION The incidence of SPMs was high. The presence of LVLs, which was a predictive factor for SPMs, may be useful for surveillance planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seiichiro Mitani
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, 1-1 Kanokoden, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, Aichi, 464-8681, Japan.
- Department of Medical Oncology, Faculty of Medicine Kindai University, 377-2 Onohigashi, Osaka-sayama, Osaka, 589-8511, Japan.
| | - Ken Kato
- Department of Head and Neck, Esophageal Medical Oncology, National Cancer Center Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Daiko
- Esophageal Surgery Division, National Cancer Center Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yoshinori Ito
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Showa University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Isao Nozaki
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, National Hospital Organization Shikoku Cancer Center, Matsuyama, Japan
| | - Takashi Kojima
- Department of Gastroenterology and Gastrointestinal Oncology, National Cancer Center Hospital East, Kashiwa, Japan
| | - Masahiko Yano
- Department of Surgery, Osaka International Cancer Institute, Osaka, Japan
| | - Satoru Nakagawa
- Department of Surgery, Niigata Cancer Center Hospital, Niigata, Japan
| | - Masaki Ueno
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Toranomon Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masaya Watanabe
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Shizuoka General Hospital, Shizuoka, Japan
| | - Shigeru Tsunoda
- Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Tetsuya Abe
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Aichi, Japan
| | - Shigenori Kadowaki
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, 1-1 Kanokoden, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, Aichi, 464-8681, Japan
| | - Tomohiro Kadota
- Department of Gastroenterology and Endoscopy, National Cancer Center Hospital East, Kashiwa, Japan
| | - Keita Sasaki
- Japan Clinical Oncology Group Operations Office, National Cancer Center Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ryunosuke Machida
- Japan Clinical Oncology Group Data Center, National Cancer Center Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuko Kitagawa
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
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Komatsu H, Izumi N, Tsukioka T, Inoue H, Miyamoto H, Ito R, Kimura T, Nishiyama N. Surgical outcomes of primary lung cancers following esophagectomy for primary esophageal carcinoma. Jpn J Clin Oncol 2021; 51:786-792. [PMID: 33442741 DOI: 10.1093/jjco/hyaa254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2020] [Revised: 10/22/2020] [Accepted: 12/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the perioperative complications and prognosis of patients with a history of resected esophageal carcinoma who subsequently underwent pulmonary resection of a primary lung cancer. METHODS The study cohort comprised 23 patients who had undergone curative resection of a primary lung cancer following esophagectomy for a primary esophageal carcinoma. Clinical characteristics and surgical outcomes were analyzed. RESULTS The initial treatment for esophageal carcinoma was esophagectomy by thoracotomy in 10 patients and video assisted thoracoscopic surgery in 13. The treatments for lung cancer comprised wedge resection in three patients, segmentectomy in seven and lobectomy in 13. The pulmonary resections were performed by thoracotomy in six and video assisted thoracoscopic surgery in 17. The average operating time for the lung cancer surgeries was 202 min and average blood loss 122 ml. There were no perioperative deaths or severe complications. Three- and Five-year overall survival rates were 78.0% and 68.2%. According to univariate survival analysis, age, restrictive ventilatory impairment and histology of lung cancer were significant predictors of poor prognosis (all P < 0.05). Significantly more of the patients with than without restrictive ventilatory impairment died of other diseases (P = 0.0036). CONCLUSIONS Pulmonary resection for primary lung cancers following esophagectomy for esophageal carcinoma is acceptable in selected patients. Such surgery requires caution concerning intrathoracic adhesions and postoperative prolonged air leakage. Patients with restrictive ventilatory impairment had a poorer prognosis, and the indication for surgery in these patients should be carefully considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiroaki Komatsu
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Osaka City University Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Nobuhiro Izumi
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Osaka City University Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Takuma Tsukioka
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Osaka City University Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Hidetoshi Inoue
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Osaka City University Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Hikaru Miyamoto
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Osaka City University Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Ryuichi Ito
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Osaka City University Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Takuya Kimura
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Osaka City University Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Noritoshi Nishiyama
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Osaka City University Hospital, Osaka, Japan
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van de Ven SEM, Falger JM, Verhoeven RHA, Baatenburg de Jong RJ, Spaander MCW, Bruno MJ, Koch AD. Increased risk of second primary tumours in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a nationwide study in a Western population. United European Gastroenterol J 2021; 9:497-506. [PMID: 33270530 PMCID: PMC8259340 DOI: 10.1177/2050640620977129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2020] [Accepted: 11/04/2020] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients with primary oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma are at risk of developing multiple primary tumours in the upper aero digestive tract. To date, most studies are performed in the Asian population. We aimed to evaluate the risk of multiple primary tumours in the upper aero digestive tract and stomach in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a Western population. METHODS We performed a nationwide, retrospective cohort study in collaboration with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients with primary oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, diagnosed between 2000 and 2016, were included. Primary endpoints were synchronous and metachronous multiple primary tumour risk. RESULTS The cohort consisted of 9058 patients, diagnosed with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (male: 57.3%, median age 67 years). In 476 patients (5.3%), 545 multiple primary tumours have been diagnosed. Most of them were located in the head and neck region (49.5%). Among all multiple primary tumours, 329 (60.4%) were diagnosed synchronously (<6 months after oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma diagnosis) and 216 (39.6%) metachronously (6 months). Patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma had a significantly increased risk of both synchronous (standardised incidence ratio 10.95, 99% confidence interval 9.40-12.53) and metachronous multiple primary tumours (standardised incidence ratio 4.36, 99% confidence interval 3.56-5.10), compared to the general population. The median interval to metachronous second primary tumour diagnosis was 3.0 years (interquartile range 1.8-5.9). CONCLUSION Approximately one in 20 patients with primary oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma have a second primary tumour in the upper aero digestive tract or stomach, either at the time of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma diagnosis or at a later stage. As second primary tumours occur at an increased risk compared to the general population, prospective studies are necessary to investigate the yield and survival benefit of screening for second primary tumours in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steffi E M van de Ven
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Janne M Falger
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rob H A Verhoeven
- Department of Research and Development, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Department of Surgery, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Robert J Baatenburg de Jong
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck Surgery, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Manon C W Spaander
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marco J Bruno
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Arjun D Koch
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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Mitani S, Kadowaki S, Oze I, Masuishi T, Narita Y, Bando H, Oonishi S, Hirayama Y, Tanaka T, Tajika M, Koide Y, Kodaira T, Abe T, Muro K. Risk of second primary malignancies after definitive treatment for esophageal cancer: A competing risk analysis. Cancer Med 2019; 9:394-400. [PMID: 31730285 PMCID: PMC6943156 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.2688] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2019] [Revised: 09/26/2019] [Accepted: 10/20/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Esophageal cancer is associated with synchronous or metachronous cancer at other primary sites. However, few studies have evaluated the second malignancies after the treatment of esophageal cancer. The present study aimed to clarify the frequency of and risk factors for the second malignancies after definitive therapy for esophageal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS We included patients with esophageal cancer who received definitive therapy between 2000 and 2010. Exclusion criteria were synchronous cancer or a past history of cancer. Standardized incidence rate (SIR) was calculated using age- and sex-specific incidence rates from the cancer registry data. To conduct risk analyses, we used the competing risk regression model, which defined death and the development of second malignancies as competing risks. RESULTS A total of 758 patients were included, with 131 second malignancies occurring in 106 patients (14%), over a median follow-up of 3.7 years. Cumulative incidences of second malignancies after 3, 5, and 8 years were 4.0%, 7.6%, and 13.8%, respectively. The risk of second malignancy was significantly elevated [SIR = 1.83, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.50-2.22]. The most common sites of primary tumor were the head and neck (20%), followed by the lung (17%), stomach (16%), colon and rectum (11%), and urinary tract (9%). Risk analyses revealed that age ≥ 65 years [subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR): 1.51, 95% CI: 1.01-2.24, vs age < 65] and clinical stages 0-I (sHR: 2.48, 95% CI: 1.46-4.22, vs stage III and IV) and II (sHR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.23-3.58, vs stage III and IV) were significantly associated with second malignancies. CONCLUSIONS Compared with the general population, an increased incidence of second malignancies was observed in the patients with esophageal cancer in the present study even after definitive treatment. Careful follow-up is required, especially in patients at a higher risk of second malignancies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seiichiro Mitani
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan.,Department of Medical Oncology, Kindai University Faculty of Medicine, Osaka-Sayama, Japan
| | - Shigenori Kadowaki
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Isao Oze
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Aichi Cancer Center, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Toshiki Masuishi
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Yukiya Narita
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Hideaki Bando
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Sachiyo Oonishi
- Department of Endoscopy, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Yutaka Hirayama
- Department of Endoscopy, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Tsutomu Tanaka
- Department of Endoscopy, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Masahiro Tajika
- Department of Endoscopy, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Yutaro Koide
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Takeshi Kodaira
- Department of Radiation Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Tetsuya Abe
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Kei Muro
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
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7
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Xing J, Min L, Zhang H, Li P, Li W, Lv F, Wang Y, Zhang Z, Li H, Guo Q, Wang S, Zhao Y, Wang J, Shi X, Wang A, Zhu S, Ji M, Wu Y, Zhang S. A nomogram for endoscopic screening in a high esophageal squamous cell cancer risk area: results from a population-based study. Cancer Manag Res 2019; 11:431-442. [PMID: 30655695 PMCID: PMC6322513 DOI: 10.2147/cmar.s167311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Endoscopy is the main approach used for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening, especially in high-risk areas. However, little consensus has been achieved in recent ESCC screening programs, and endoscopists have selected patients only by age and family history. Patients and methods To generate a proper strategy for selecting an eligible population for endoscopic screening based on demographic factors, lifestyle, and eating habits, a total of 7,830 residents in an area with a high risk of ESCC were recruited for this study. All participants underwent endoscopic examinations that were conducted by experienced endoscopists. Risk factors for ESCC and other lesions were selected by univariate and multivariate logistic regressions. A nomogram for the prediction of ESCC and premalignant lesions was constructed, which included information on age, sex, occupation, labor intensity, income, and mining exposure. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to present the predictive accuracy of the nomograms. Results The area under the curve (95% CI) was 0.749 (0.711–0.788) for this nomogram. By applying this nomogram, we could exclude 60% (4704/7830) of patients before endoscopy screening and detect all ESCC cases as well as most esophageal lesions in the remaining population. Conclusion In conclusion, we provided a ready-to-use preclinical tool with the potential to select eligible people with high risk of ESCC for endoscopy screening.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Xing
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Li Min
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Hao Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Jizhong Energy Fengfeng Group Hospital, Handan, Hebei 056200, People's Republic of China
| | - Peng Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Wei Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Fujin Lv
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Yongjun Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Zheng Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Hengcun Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Qingdong Guo
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Siyi Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Yu Zhao
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Junmin Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Handan Central Hospital, Handan, Hebei 056001, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaoyan Shi
- Department of Pathology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China
| | - Anxin Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100029, People's Republic of China
| | - Shengtao Zhu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Ming Ji
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Yongdong Wu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
| | - Shutian Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Disease, Beijing 100050, People's Republic of China,
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