Gabayan GZ, Gould MK, Weiss RE, Chiu VY, Sarkisian CA. A Risk Score to Predict Short-term Outcomes Following Emergency Department Discharge.
West J Emerg Med 2018;
19:842-848. [PMID:
30202497 PMCID:
PMC6123082 DOI:
10.5811/westjem.2018.7.37945]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2018] [Revised: 06/06/2018] [Accepted: 07/20/2018] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction
The emergency department (ED) is an inherently high-risk setting. Risk scores can help practitioners understand the risk of ED patients for developing poor outcomes after discharge. Our objective was to develop two risk scores that predict either general inpatient admission or death/intensive care unit (ICU) admission within seven days of ED discharge.
Methods
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients age > 65 years using clinical data from a regional, integrated health system for years 2009–2010 to create risk scores to predict two outcomes, a general inpatient admission or death/ICU admission. We used logistic regression to predict the two outcomes based on age, body mass index, vital signs, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), ED length of stay (LOS), and prior inpatient admission.
Results
Of 104,025 ED visit discharges, 4,638 (4.5%) experienced a general inpatient admission and 531 (0.5%) death or ICU admission within seven days of discharge. Risk factors with the greatest point value for either outcome were high CCI score and a prolonged ED LOS. The C-statistic was 0.68 and 0.76 for the two models.
Conclusion
Risk scores were successfully created for both outcomes from an integrated health system, inpatient admission or death/ICU admission. Patients who accrued the highest number of points and greatest risk present to the ED with a high number of comorbidities and require prolonged ED evaluations.
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