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Kurz SD, Mahlke H, Graw K, Prasse P, Falk V, Knosalla C, Matzarakis A. Patterns in acute aortic dissection and a connection to meteorological conditions in Germany. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0296794. [PMID: 38265976 PMCID: PMC10807778 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a dramatic emergency exhibiting a mortality of 50% within the first 48 hours if not operated. This study found an absolute value of cosine-like seasonal variation pattern for Germany with significantly fewer ATAAD events (Wilcoxon test) for the warm months of June, July, and August from 2005 to 2015. Many studies suspect a connection between ATAAD events and weather conditions. Using ERA5 reanalysis data and an objective weather type classification in a contingency table approach showed that for Germany, significantly more ATAAD events occurred during lower temperatures (by about 4.8 K), lower water vapor pressure (by about 2.6 hPa), and prevailing wind patterns from the northeast. In addition, we used data from a classification scheme for human-biometeorological weather conditions which was not used before in ATAAD studies. For the German region of Berlin and Brandenburg, for 2006 to 2019, the proportion of days with ATAAD events during weather conditions favoring hypertension (cold air advection, in the center of a cyclone, conditions with cold stress or thermal comfort) was significantly increased by 13% (Chi-squared test for difference of proportions). In contrast, the proportion was decreased by 19% for conditions associated with a higher risk for patients with hypotension and therefore a lower risk for patients with hypertension (warm air advection ahead of warm fronts, conditions with no thermal stress or heat stress, in the center of a cyclone with thermal stress). As many studies have shown that hypertension is a risk factor for ATAAD, our findings support the hypothesized relation between ATAAD and hypertension-favoring weather conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephan Dominik Kurz
- Department of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery, Deutsches Herzzentrum der Charité (DHZC), Berlin, Germany
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Holger Mahlke
- Wetter3.de - R. Behrendt und H. Mahlke GbR, Wehrheim im Taunus, Germany
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Kathrin Graw
- Research Centre Human Biometeorology, German Meteorological Service, Freiburg, Germany
- Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert-Ludwigs-University, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Paul Prasse
- Department of Computer Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Volkmar Falk
- Department of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery, Deutsches Herzzentrum der Charité (DHZC), Berlin, Germany
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Health Sciences and Technology, Translational Cardiovascular Technologies, Institute of Translational Medicine, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Christoph Knosalla
- Department of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery, Deutsches Herzzentrum der Charité (DHZC), Berlin, Germany
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Andreas Matzarakis
- Research Centre Human Biometeorology, German Meteorological Service, Freiburg, Germany
- Chair of Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert-Ludwigs-University, Freiburg, Germany
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Lin Q, Wu Q, Chen X, Chen X, Xie L, Chen L. Seasonal and daily variations in the occurence and outcomes of acute Stanford type A dissections: a retrospective single-center study. J Cardiothorac Surg 2023; 18:108. [PMID: 37029426 PMCID: PMC10080959 DOI: 10.1186/s13019-023-02222-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2022] [Accepted: 04/02/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To investigate the seasonal, monthly, and daily distributions of the incidence of Stanford type-A acute aortic dissection (TAAAD) and identify seasonality in the duration of hospital stay and in-hospital mortality of TAAAD in south-eastern China. METHODS We enrolled patients diagnosed with TAAAD between 1 June 2017 and 31 May 2021. Participants were divided into seasonal, monthly, and daily groups according to the need for analysis. Analysis of variance was applied to compare the number of TAAAD in different seasons, months, and days. χ2 test was used to compare in-hospital mortality among the four groups. Non-parametric methods were used for all comparisons of the duration of hospital stay. Univariate logistic and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the duration of hospital stay. RESULTS Of the 485 patients, 154 were diagnosed in winter (31.8%), 115 in spring (23.7%), 73 in summer (15.1%), and 143 in autumn (29.5%). The daily, monthly, and seasonal distributions of TAAAD were significantly different (P = 0.04, P < 0.01, and P < 0.01, respectively). This study did not identify any significant decrease in maximal, mean, or minimum temperatures between the three days before TAAAD and the day of TAAAD. No seasonal variations associated with in-hospital mortality was observed (P = 0.89). However, significant differences were observed in the seasonal distribution of the duration of hospital stay for TAAAD [winter was 17.0 (4.0-24.0) days, spring was 20.0 (14.0-29.0) days, summer was 20.0 (12.5-31.0) days, and autumn was 20.0 (13.0-30.0) days, P < 0.01]. Multiple factor analysis showed that winter was the independent risk factor for the increased duration of hospital stay. The odds ratio for winter was 2.21 (1.46, 3.33, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Our study confirmed that the incidence of TAAAD exhibits seasonal, monthly, and daily variations in south-eastern China. Moreover, the daily incidence of TAAAD is higher on weekdays than that on weekends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qinmei Lin
- Department of Outpatient, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, People's Republic of China
| | - Qingsong Wu
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Xinquan Road 29, Fuzhou, Fujian, People's Republic of China
- Fujian Key Laboratory of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (Fujian Medical University), Fuzhou, 350001, Fujian, People's Republic of China
- Fujian Provincial Special Reserve Talents Laboratory, Fuzhou, Fujian, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaodong Chen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Xinquan Road 29, Fuzhou, Fujian, People's Republic of China
| | - Xingfeng Chen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Xinquan Road 29, Fuzhou, Fujian, People's Republic of China
| | - Linfeng Xie
- Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, People's Republic of China
| | - Liangwan Chen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Xinquan Road 29, Fuzhou, Fujian, People's Republic of China.
- Fujian Key Laboratory of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (Fujian Medical University), Fuzhou, 350001, Fujian, People's Republic of China.
- Fujian Provincial Special Reserve Talents Laboratory, Fuzhou, Fujian, People's Republic of China.
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Aortic dissection: global epidemiology. CARDIOLOGY PLUS 2022. [DOI: 10.1097/cp9.0000000000000028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
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Wu H, Wang Z, Li M, Liu Q, Liu W, Qiao Z, Bai T, Liu Y, Zhang C, Sun P, Wei S, Bai H. A systematic review and meta-analysis of seasonal and monthly variability in the incidence of acute aortic dissection. Ann Vasc Surg 2022; 85:383-394. [DOI: 10.1016/j.avsg.2022.04.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2021] [Revised: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 04/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/01/2022]
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Luo ZR, Lin ZQ, Chen LW, Qiu HF. Effects of seasonal and climate variations on in-hospital mortality and length of stay in patients with type A aortic dissection. J Cardiothorac Surg 2021; 16:252. [PMID: 34496919 PMCID: PMC8424972 DOI: 10.1186/s13019-021-01639-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2021] [Accepted: 08/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective To investigate the effects of seasonal and climatic changes on postoperative in-hospital mortality and length of stay (LOS) in patients with type A acute aortic dissection (AAD). Methods Patients undergoing implantation of the modified triple-branched stent graft to replace the descending aorta in addition to aortic root reconstruction for type A AAD in our hospital from January 2016 to December 2019 were included. Relevant data were retrospectively collected and analyzed. Results A total of 404 patients were included in our analyses. The multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis showed that patients admitted in autumn (OR 4.027, 95% CI 1.023–17.301, P = 0.039) or with coronary heart disease (OR 8.938, 95% CI 1.991–29.560, P = 0.049) were independently associated with an increased risk of postoperative in-hospital mortality. Furthermore, patients admitted in autumn (OR 5.956, 95% CI 2.719–7.921, P = 0.041) or with hypertension (OR 3.486, 95% CI 1.192–5.106, P = 0.035) were independently associated with an increased risk of longer LOS. Conclusion Patients admitted in autumn or with coronary heart disease are at higher risk of in-hospital mortality following surgery for type A AAD. Also, patients admitted in autumn or with hypertension have a longer hospital LOS. In the autumn of the temperature transition, we may need to strengthen the management of medical quality after surgery for type A AAD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zeng-Rong Luo
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery and Cardiac Disease Center, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350001, People's Republic of China.,Key Laboratory of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (Fujian Medical University), Fujian Province University, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhi-Qin Lin
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery and Cardiac Disease Center, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350001, People's Republic of China.,Key Laboratory of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (Fujian Medical University), Fujian Province University, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Liang-Wan Chen
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery and Cardiac Disease Center, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350001, People's Republic of China.,Key Laboratory of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (Fujian Medical University), Fujian Province University, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Han-Fan Qiu
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery and Cardiac Disease Center, Union Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350001, People's Republic of China. .,Key Laboratory of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (Fujian Medical University), Fujian Province University, Fuzhou, People's Republic of China.
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Impact of Relative Change in Temperature and Atmospheric Pressure on Acute Aortic Syndrome Occurrence in France. Sci Rep 2020; 10:76. [PMID: 31919377 PMCID: PMC6952440 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-56841-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2019] [Accepted: 11/14/2019] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Acute aortic syndromes (AAS) have been related to significant circadian and seasonal conditions. We used time series analyses to study the impact of meteorological variations on AAS occurrence. We retrospectively assessed 140 patients presenting with AAS over a 6-year period in a French university hospital. Average daily temperature (T) and atmospheric pressure (AP) at the location of the event were collected within the previous 10 days, and their association with AAS investigated with generalized additive models. A decrease in temperature of more than 5 °C within the previous seven days was significantly associated with an increased risk of AAS occurrence (OR equal to 1.86 [1.06; 3.44]). Subgroup analysis revealed that the risk was only significant among normotensive individuals (n = 41) free from blood pressure lowering medication (OR equal to 2.3 [1.05; 5.37]), but not among hypertensive individuals under blood pressure lowering medication despite a larger patient number (n = 99). Similarly, only among the subgroup of normotensive individuals a decrease of AP between 2 and 4 kPa within the previous 3 days was associated with an increased risk of AAS (OR equal to 2.93 [1.1; 8.15]) and an increased between 2 and 4 kPa was associated with a decreased risk (OR equal to 0.59 [0.36; 1.00]). Variations of meteorological conditions (temperature and AP) within the previous week seem to have effects on triggering AAS especially among the population free from blood pressure lowering medication.
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Choong AMTL, Marjot J, Wee IJY, Syn N, Marjot T, Brightwell RE, Walker PJ. Forecasting aortic aneurysm rupture: A systematic review of seasonal and atmospheric associations. J Vasc Surg 2019; 69:1615-1632.e17. [PMID: 30792059 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2018.09.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2018] [Accepted: 09/04/2018] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) represent a significant burden of disease worldwide, and their rupture, without treatment, has an invariably high mortality rate. Whereas some risk factors for ruptured AAAs (rAAAs) are well established, such as hypertension, smoking, and female sex, the impact of seasonal and meteorologic variables is less clear. We systematically reviewed the literature to determine whether these variables are associated with rAAA. METHODS Review methods were according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We calculated pooled proportions and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the different months and seasons. Funnel plots were constructed to assess for publication bias. Given the poor methodologic quality of included studies, a sensitivity analysis was performed on better-quality studies, which scored 6 and above of 9 in the author-modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS The pooled proportion of rAAA was highest in the autumn season (incidence rate, 26.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.6%-27.7%; I2 = 15.4%), followed by winter (incidence rate, 26.2%; 95% CI, 24.1%-28.2%; I2 = 72.4%), and lowest in summer (incidence rate, 21.1%; 95% CI, 19.3%-23.0%; I2 = 70.4%). The IRRs of rAAA were -6.9% (95% CI, -9.8% to -3.9%), -19.5% (95% CI, -22% to -16.8%), +10.5% (95% CI, 7.2%-13.9%), and +18.1% (95% CI, 15%-22%) in spring, summer, autumn, and winter compared with the remaining seasons, respectively (all P < .0001), thus affirming existence of seasonal variation. The pooled proportion of rAAA was highest in December (incidence rate, 8.9%; 95% CI, 7.1%-10.9%; I2 = 54.5%) but lowest in July (incidence rate, 5.7%; 95% CI, 4.2%-7.3%; I2 = 54.5%). The IRR was significantly the highest in January (IRR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.29; P = .031) but lowest in July (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.87; P < .0001). There is also some evidence for a possible association with atmospheric pressure. Associations with temperature and daylight hours, however, are at best speculative. CONCLUSIONS Autumn and winter are significantly associated with a higher incidence of rAAAs, and autumn is associated with the highest rupture incidence of all the seasons. However, the inability to appropriately control for other confounding factors known to increase the risk of AAA rupture precludes any additional recommendations to alter current provision of vascular services on the basis of these data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew M T L Choong
- SingVaSC, Singapore Vascular Surgical Collaborative, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Cardiovascular Research Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Department of Surgery, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Division of Vascular Surgery, National University Heart Centre, Singapore.
| | - Jack Marjot
- SingVaSC, Singapore Vascular Surgical Collaborative, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Prince of Wales Hospital, Sydney, Australia
| | - Ian J Y Wee
- SingVaSC, Singapore Vascular Surgical Collaborative, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Nicholas Syn
- SingVaSC, Singapore Vascular Surgical Collaborative, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Tom Marjot
- Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Robert E Brightwell
- SingVaSC, Singapore Vascular Surgical Collaborative, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Norwich, United Kingdom
| | - Philip J Walker
- Department of Surgery, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Department of Vascular Surgery, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia
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Majd P, Madershahian N, Sabashnikov A, Weber C, Ahmad W, Weymann A, Heinen S, Merkle J, Eghbalzadeh K, Wippermann J, Brunkwall J, Wahlers T. Impact of meteorological conditions on the incidence of acute aortic dissection. Ther Adv Cardiovasc Dis 2018; 12:321-326. [PMID: 30244647 DOI: 10.1177/1753944718801559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND: There is still much controversy about whether meteorological conditions influence the occurrence of acute aortic dissection (AAD). The aim of the present study was to investigate the possible correlation between atmospheric pressure, temperature, lunar cycle and the event of aortic dissection in our patient population. METHODS: The clinical data for 348 patients with AAD (73% type Stanford A) were confronted with the meteorological data provided by the Cologne weather station over the same period. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences between meteorological parameters on days of AAD events compared with control days. A logistic regression model showed that air pressure (odds ratio [OR] 1.004, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.991-1.017, p = 0.542), air temperature (OR 0.978, 95% CI 0.949-1.008, p = 0.145), season ( p = 0.918) and month of the event ( p = 0.175) as well as presence of full moon (OR 1.579, 95% CI 0.763-3.270, p = 0.219) were not able to predict AAD events. Also, no predictive power of meteorological data and season was found on analysing their impact on different types of AAD events. CONCLUSIONS: Our study did not reveal any dependence of atmospheric pressure, air temperature or the presence of full moon on the incidence of different types of AAD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Payman Majd
- Department of Vascular Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
| | - Navid Madershahian
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
| | - Anton Sabashnikov
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
| | - Carolyn Weber
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Cologne, Kerpener Strasse 62, 50937 Cologne, Germany
| | - Wael Ahmad
- Department of Vascular Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
| | - Alexander Weymann
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, University Hospital Oldenburg, European Medical School Oldenburg-Groningen, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Stephanie Heinen
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
| | - Julia Merkle
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
| | - Kaveh Eghbalzadeh
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
| | - Jens Wippermann
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University Hospital Magdeburg, Magdeburg, Germany
| | - Jan Brunkwall
- Department of Vascular Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
| | - Thorsten Wahlers
- Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Cologne University Heart Centre, Cologne, Germany
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Opacic D, Ilic N, Sladojevic M, Schönleitner P, Markovic D, Kostic D, Davidovic L. Effects of atmospheric pressure dynamics on abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture onset. VASA 2018; 47:137-142. [PMID: 29299980 DOI: 10.1024/0301-1526/a000681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The effect of atmospheric pressure (AP) on the onset of abdominal aorta aneurysm rupture (RAAA) remains an unanswered question. We have investigated the seasonal variation and the effect of AP dynamics on RAAA by analysing the largest series of intraoperatively confirmed RAAA. PATIENTS AND METHODS To realize this study we have performed a retrospective analysis of 546 patients with RAAA, operated within 503 days at the Clinic for vascular and endovascular surgery CCS between 1.1.2003 and 31.12.2012. AP data for Belgrade city were obtained from meteorological yearbooks published by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia measured at the hydrometeorological station "Belgrade Observatory". Only patients with a residence within the extended Belgrade region, exposed to the similar AP values, were included in the analysis of the AP effect on RAAA. RESULTS RAAA were observed more frequently during winter and autumn months but without significant difference in comparison to other seasons. Months with higher AP values were associated with a higher RAAA rate (p = 0.0008, R2 = 0.665). A similar trend was observed for the monthly AP variability (p = 0.0311, R2 = 0.374). Average AP values did not differ between days with and without RAAA. However, during the three and seven days periods preceding RAAA AP variability parameters were greater and AP was rising. CONCLUSIONS Although these pressure differences are very small, higher AP values over longer periods of time as well as greater variability are associated with RAAA. The exact mechanism behind this association remains unclear. The postulation that low AP may precipitate RAAA based on the Laplace law should be discarded.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dragan Opacic
- 1 Herz- und Diabeteszentrum Nordrhein-Westfalen, Bad Oeynhausen, Germany
| | - Nikola Ilic
- 2 Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.,3 Clinic for Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Milos Sladojevic
- 3 Clinic for Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
| | | | - Dragan Markovic
- 2 Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.,3 Clinic for Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Dusan Kostic
- 2 Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.,3 Clinic for Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Lazar Davidovic
- 2 Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.,3 Clinic for Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
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Law Y, Chan YC, Cheng SWK. Impact of Ambient Temperature on Incidence of Acute Lower Limb Ischemia. Ann Vasc Surg 2017; 44:393-399. [PMID: 28479471 DOI: 10.1016/j.avsg.2017.03.189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2016] [Revised: 02/19/2017] [Accepted: 03/09/2017] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This was a retrospective study to explore the possible association between atmospheric temperatures with the occurrence of acute leg ischemia (ALI). METHODS A linear regression analysis was performed for a period of 10 years on the impact of ambient temperature on the incidence of ALI. Mean ambient temperature on a daily basis was retrieved electronically from our observatory, and the daily incidence of ALI was retrieved from the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting (CDAR) system. CDAR system could retrieve clinical data from all 42 public hospitals in our region, which provided almost 90% inpatient care of the population. Daily incidence was defined as total number of emergency admissions from all 42 pubic hospitals due to ALI from 00:00 till 23:59 hr of that day. RESULTS For the 10-year period, spanning from January 2005 to December 2014, there were a total of 634 recorded ALI with revascularization, 608 (95.9%) of which underwent emergency femoral embolectomy, 15 (2.4%) underwent thrombolysis, and 11 (1.7%) underwent thrombolysis and embolectomy. ALIs with primary amputation or conservative management were excluded from the study. The average daily incidence of ALI was 0.170. A linear regression model was built using mean ambient temperature as independent variable and incidence of ALI as dependent variables. The line of best fit was drawn through the data points. The daily incidence of ALI could be predicted by ambient temperature (in °C) with the equation: incidence = 0.274-0.004 × temperature (linear regression; r = -0.053, r2 = 0.003, F = 10.42, and P = 0.001). In other words, daily incidence was 0.274 at 0°C; and for every 10°C increase, the incidence would drop by 0.040. At 30°C, daily incidence of ALI was 0.154. CONCLUSIONS This study showed an association of cold temperature and ALI in our population. Measures to protect the susceptible population from cold temperatures should be considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuk Law
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, China.
| | - Yiu Che Chan
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, China
| | - Stephen Wing-Keung Cheng
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, China
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Law Y, Chan YC, Cheng SW. Influence of meteorological factors on acute aortic events in a subtropical territory. Asian J Surg 2016; 40:329-337. [PMID: 26857853 DOI: 10.1016/j.asjsur.2015.11.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2015] [Revised: 11/06/2015] [Accepted: 11/16/2015] [Indexed: 10/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE This study aims to examine the relationship between weather changes and acute aortic events in a subtropical territory. METHODS A linear regression analysis was performed in a pan-territory epidemiological survey for a period of 10 years on the impacts of meteorological factors (ambient temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, amount of cloud, rainfall, number of lightning strikes, presence of typhoon, and thunderstorm warning) on the daily incidences of acute aortic dissections and ruptured aortic aneurysms. Meteorological variables were retrieved on a daily basis from a well-established observatory, and the daily incidences of aortic dissections and rupture of aortic aneurysms were retrieved from the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System. RESULTS During the study period (January 2005 to December 2014), 3878 patients were identified as having acute aortic dissections, and 1174 patients had ruptured aortic aneurysms. Corresponding averaged daily incidences were 1.06 and 0.32, respectively. The incidences of aortic dissection and ruptured aortic aneurysm in a day could be predicted by ambient temperature in degrees Celsius using the following linear regression models: (1) incidence of aortic dissection = 1.548 - 0.021 × temperature; (2) incidence of ruptured aortic aneurysm = 0.564 - 0.010 × temperature. In addition, both high atmospheric pressure and absence of thunderstorm warning are positively associated with more aortic dissections. For rupture of aortic aneurysms, high atmospheric pressure and low relative humidity were positive predictors. In multiple regression analysis, however, ambient temperature was the only significant predictor for both acute aortic dissections and ruptured aortic aneurysms. CONCLUSION This is the first pan-territory study to show an attributable effect of ambient temperature on acute aortic events. This paper confirms that even in a subtropical country, meteorological variables were important factors influencing acute aortic events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Y Law
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong
| | - Y C Chan
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong.
| | - S W Cheng
- Division of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong
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