When to initiate renal replacement therapy: The trend of dialysis initiation

Predicting 72-Hour Fatality in Severe Hyperphosphatemia: A Comparative Analysis of Multivariate Logistic Regression and Machine Learning Models in a Single-Center Study

BACKGROUND

Hyperphosphatemia is associated with several serious diseases, including chronic kidney disease, tumor lysis syndrome (TLS), rhabdomyolysis, sepsis, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. This study investigates the critical issue of predicting 72-hour fatality in patients with severe hyperphosphatemia (≥ 10 mg/dL).

METHODS

We analyzed data from 530 patients treated at the Saitama Medical Center, Japan, from 2004 to 2019, including 153 72-hour fatalities. Multivariate logistic regression analysis (MLRA), Prediction One™ (Sony Network Communications Inc., Tokyo, Japan, https://predictionone.sony.biz/), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) were used to predict fatalities. These methods were evaluated on a validation set of 331 patients from 2020 to 2023, including 104 fatalities. Calibration plots for training and validation data were used for comparison.

RESULTS

The fatality rate was 28.9% in the training data and 31.4% in the validation data. MLRA identified five fatality factors: age, low albumin, high aspartate aminotransferase, and elevated potassium and magnesium levels, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.848 (95% CI: 0.801, 0.890), sensitivity of 0.862, and specificity of 0.704. Prediction One™ achieved an AUC of 0.770 (95% CI: 0.722, 0.818), sensitivity of 0.654, and specificity of 0.769. LightGBM achieved an AUC of 0.948 (95% CI: 0.923, 0.973), sensitivity of 0.863, and specificity of 0.889. The validation calibration plot showed that MLRA had the closest regression coefficient to 1.0 at 0.903.

CONCLUSION

Although MLRA was the most accurate in predicting 72-hour fatalities, machine learning methods provided valuable insights into the importance of variables. Considering the high mortality rates associated with severe hyperphosphatemia, timely and accurate prognostication is essential in guiding immediate interventions and improving outcomes in emergency settings.

Hemodialysis Vascular Access: A Historical Perspective on Access Promotion, Barriers, and Lessons for the Future

This review describes the history of vascular access for hemodialysis (HD) over the past 8 decades. Reliable, repeatable vascular access for outpatient HD began in the 1960s with the Quinton-Scribner shunt. This was followed by the autologous Brecia-Cimino radial-cephalic arteriovenous fistula (AVF), which dominated HD vascular access for the next 20 years. Delayed referral and the requirement of 1.5-3 months for AVF maturation led to the development of and increasing dependence on synthetic arteriovenous grafts (AVGs) and tunneled central venous catheters, both of which have higher thrombosis and infection risks than AVFs. The use of AVGs and tunneled central venous catheters increased progressively to the point that, in 1997, the first evidence-based clinical practice guidelines for HD vascular access recommended that they only be used if a functioning AVF could not be established. Efforts to promote AVF use in the United States during the past 2 decades doubled their prevalence; however, recent practice guidelines acknowledge that not all patients receiving HD are ideally suited for an AVF. Nonetheless, improved referral for AVF placement before dialysis initiation and improved conversion of failing AVGs to AVFs may increase AVF use among patients in whom they are appropriate.

The effect of urgent-start peritoneal dialysis and urgent-start hemodialysis on clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Recently, urgent-start peritoneal dialysis (PD) has been suggested in place of urgent-start hemodialysis (HD) in cases of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the comparative effectiveness of these methods is still unclear. This study compared the outcomes of urgent-start PD and urgent-start HD in CKD patients.

METHODS

Electronic searches were conducted in PubMed, EMbase, Google Scholar databases, and Cochrane Library, up to 30th July 2023 for studies reporting data on all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included dialysis-related infectious and mechanical complications. Risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

Nine eligible studies involving 941 PD and 779 HD patients were analyzed. Pooled analysis demonstrated elevated risk of all-cause mortality (RR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.09), dialysis-related infectious complications (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.07), and mechanical complications (RR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.13) in patients undergoing urgent-start HD than in patients on urgent-start PD.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that CKD patients that received urgent-start HD are at increased risk of all-cause mortality and infectious, and mechanical complications that are associated with the dialysis than patients that received urgent-start PD. These findings have to be considered when making treatment decisions for patients with acute kidney injury. Better understanding of the mechanism of these differences may help to create guidelines for more informed clinical practices.

Linear Projection of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline with Canagliflozin and Implications for Dialysis Utilization and Cost in Diabetic Nephropathy

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes is a common cause of end-stage kidney disease leading to dialysis or kidney transplantation. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measures kidney function, and differences in the rate (slope) of eGFR decline can be used to assess treatment effects on kidney function over time. In the CREDENCE trial, the sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor canagliflozin slowed the rate of eGFR decline by 60% compared to placebo in patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease. This analysis utilized eGFR slopes from CREDENCE to estimate the difference in time to dialysis by treatment arm and estimated the economic value of that delay.

METHODS

A linear decline in eGFR and maintenance of stable therapy were assumed for the canagliflozin and placebo arms in CREDENCE. Mean eGFR over time was calculated using acute (baseline to week 3) and chronic (week 3 onward) slopes. Reaching eGFR of 10 ml/min/1.73 m2 was assumed to represent the need for chronic dialysis. The difference in time to dialysis between treatments was calculated. Based on the average duration of dialysis, annual dialysis costs were determined, discounting 2020 US dollars at an inflation rate of 4%.

RESULTS

Following the acute and chronic eGFR slopes, the projected time to dialysis was 22.85 years for canagliflozin and 9.90 years for placebo. Based on 95% confidence intervals from CREDENCE, the model-estimated difference in time to dialysis was 9.27-17.48 years. With a mean baseline participant age of 63 years, the delay in dialysis with canagliflozin would be associated with a reduction in dialysis costs of approximately $170,000 per patient in 2020 dollars.

CONCLUSION

Using clinical trial data, canagliflozin treatment was projected to delay dialysis by approximately 13 years, which could translate to a substantial cost savings. More precise estimates should be investigated with considerations for nonlinear eGFR slope trajectory, competing risks, and patient characteristics.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT02065791.

Intraoperative 99mTc-MIBI-Guided Parathyroidectomy Improves Curative Effect of Parathyroidectomy, Bone Metabolism, and Bone Mineral Density

This study aimed to compare the postoperative effects of total parathyroidectomy plus forearm transplantation and radioguided parathyroidectomy on bone metabolism and bone mineral density (BMD). From June 2013 to October 2017, 67 patients with renal secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) received surgical treatment. The control group included 30 cases of classical total parathyroidectomy plus forearm transplantation for SHPT. In the experimental group, 37 patients underwent 99mTc-MIBI-guided parathyroidectomy. Demographics, parathyroid hormone (PTH) level, blood calcium level, and pathological results were compared between the 2 groups. The curative effect of parathyroidectomy and its effect on BMD were also compared. The BMDs in the L1-L4 segments and femoral neck in both groups were significantly improved after operation (all P < .05). The T scores of the L1-L4 segments and femoral neck in both groups were significantly improved after operation (all P < .05). The improvement in the T score of the L4 in the experimental group was significantly higher than that in the control group (P < .05). No significant differences in the improvement in the L1-L3 segments and femoral neck were found between the 2 groups. Both traditional total parathyroidectomy plus forearm transplantation and 99mTc-MIBI-guided parathyroidectomy can improve PTH level, blood calcium level, phosphorus level, bone metabolism, and BMD to varying degrees in patients with SHPT. Compared with the traditional surgery, 99mTc-MIBI-guided parathyroidectomy can improve blood calcium and phosphorus metabolisms, reduce PTH level, and improve the T scores of L4 to a greater extent.

Predicting Residual Function in Hemodialysis and Hemodiafiltration-A Population Kinetic, Decision Analytic Approach

In this study, we introduce a novel framework for the estimation of residual renal function (RRF), based on the population compartmental kinetic behavior of beta 2 microglobulin (B2M) and its dialytic removal. Using this model, we simulated a large cohort of patients with various levels of RRF receiving either conventional high-flux hemodialysis or on-line hemodiafiltration. These simulations were used to estimate a novel population kinetic (PK) equation for RRF (PK-RRF) that was validated in an external public dataset of real patients. We assessed the performance of the resulting equation(s) against their ability to estimate urea clearance using cross-validation. Our equations were derived entirely from computer simulations and advanced statistical modeling and had extremely high discrimination (Area Under the Curve, AUC 0.888–0.909) when applied to a human dataset of measurements of RRF. A clearance-based equation that utilized predialysis and postdialysis B2M measurements, patient weight, treatment duration and ultrafiltration had higher discrimination than an equation previously derived in humans. Furthermore, the derived equations appeared to have higher clinical usefulness as assessed by Decision Curve Analysis, potentially supporting decisions for individualizing dialysis prescriptions in patients with preserved RRF.

Incremental start to PD as experienced in Italy: results of censuses carried out from 2005 to 2014

BACKGROUND

It is not known how widely used in Italy an incremental start to in peritoneal dialysis (Incr-PD) is.

METHODS

By analyzing the peritoneal dialysis (PD) censuses conducted by the PD Study Group (GSDP-SIN) for the years 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 in all the Centers performing PD in Italy, the use of Incr-PD, i.e. continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) with 1 or 2 exchanges/day or automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) with 3-4 sessions/week, was examined among incident PD patients.

RESULTS

In 2014 PD was started in Italy by 1,652 patients, 455 (27.5%) of whom incrementally (Incr-CAPD 82.2% vs. Incr-APD 17.8%). Incr-PD was used in 53.5% of the 225 Centers. The number of patients and of Centers using Incr-DP increased constantly over the years up to 2012 (in 2005 Incr-PD was used in 33.4% of Centers, and in 11.9% of patients). The use of Incr-PD was greater in Centers with a more extensive PD program and greater use of PD in general. The most widely-used modality in Incr-PD was CAPD.

CONCLUSIONS

Incr-PD is used in Italy in a large number of incident PD patients. The reasons for this increase need to be clarified, as current adequacy targets are based on full-dose studies with a very low glomerular filtration rate (GFR).

Relationship between mortality and speed of eGFR decline in the 3 months prior to dialysis initiation

BACKGROUND

The timing for initiating dialysis in chronic kidney disease is often determined by the clinical symptoms and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). However, very few studies have examined how the speed of kidney function decline before initiating dialysis relates to mortality after dialysis initiation. Here, we report our examination of the relationship between the speed of eGFR decline in the 3 months prior to dialysis initiation and mortality.

METHODS

The study included 1292 new dialysis patients who were registered in the Aichi Cohort Study of Prognosis in Patients Newly Initiated into Dialysis. The subjects were placed in 4 groups based on the speed of eGFR decline in the 3 months before initiating dialysis (eGFR at 3 months before initiation-eGFR at initiation) <2: ≥2, <4: ≥4, <6: ≥6 mL/min/1.73 m². All-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves. A multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model was used to extract the factors that contributed to all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The group with faster eGFR decline exhibited significantly more heart failure symptoms when dialysis was initiated. Rapid eGFR decline correlated with prognosis (log-rank test: all-cause mortality p < 0.001, cardiovascular mortality p < 0.001). The speed of eGFR decline was related to elevated all-cause mortality rates [eGFR decline 10 mL/min/1.73 m², HR (95 % CI) = 1.53 (1.12-2.08)].

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that patients with rapid eGFR decline in the 3 months before initiating dialysis more often presented with heart failure symptoms when dialysis was initiated and had poorer survival prognoses.