Development of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model Using the Suita Study, a Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study in Japan

Initial decrease in the lipoprotein(a) level is a novel prognostic biomarker in patients with acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a causal risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases; however, its role in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains unclear.

AIM

To investigate the hypothesis that the Lp(a) levels are altered by various conditions during the acute phase of ACS, resulting in subsequent cardiovascular events.

METHODS

From September 2009 to May 2016, 377 patients with ACS who underwent emergent coronary angiography, and 249 who completed ≥ 1000 d of follow-up were enrolled. Lp(a) levels were measured using an isoform-independent assay at each time point from before percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to 48 h after PCI. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE; cardiac death, other vascular death, ACS, and non-cardiac vascular events).

RESULTS

The mean circulating Lp(a) level decreased significantly from pre-PCI (0 h) to 12 h after (19.0 mg/dL to 17.8 mg/dL, P < 0.001), and then increased significantly up to 48 h after (19.3 mg/dL, P < 0.001). The changes from 0 to 12 h [Lp(a)Δ0-12] significantly correlated with the basal levels of creatinine [Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (SRCC): -0.181, P < 0.01] and Lp(a) (SRCC: -0.306, P < 0.05). Among the tertiles classified according to Lp(a)Δ0-12, MACE was significantly more frequent in the lowest Lp(a)Δ0-12 group than in the remaining two tertile groups (66.2% vs 53.6%, P = 0.034). A multivariate analysis revealed that Lp(a)Δ0-12 [hazard ratio (HR): 0.96, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.92-0.99] and basal creatinine (HR: 1.13, 95%CI: 1.05-1.22) were independent determinants of subsequent MACE.

CONCLUSION

Circulating Lp(a) levels in patients with ACS decreased significantly after emergent PCI, and a greater decrease was independently associated with a worse prognosis.

Pitfalls in Developing Machine Learning Models for Predicting Cardiovascular Diseases: Challenge and Solutions

UNSTRUCTURED

In recent years, there has been an explosive development of artificial intelligence (AI), which has been widely applied in the healthcare field. As a typical AI technology, machine learning (ML) models have emerged as great potential in predicting cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) by leveraging large amounts of medical data for training and optimization, which are expected to play a crucial role in reducing the incidence and mortality rates of CVDs. Although the field has become a research hotspot, there are still many pitfalls that researchers need to pay close attention to. These pitfalls may affect the predictive performance, credibility, reliability, reproducibility of the studied models, ultimately reducing the value of the research and affecting the prospects for clinical application. Therefore, identifying and avoiding these pitfalls is a crucial task before implementing the research. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive summary on this topic. This viewpoint aims to analyze the existing problems in terms of data quality, dataset characteristics, model design and statistical methods as well as clinic implication, and provide possible solutions to these problems, like gathering objective data, improving training, repeating measurements, increasing sample size, preventing overfitting using statistical methods, utilizing specific AI algorithms to address targeted issues, standardizing outcomes and evaluation criteria, as well as enhancing fairness and replicability, with the goal of offering reference and assistance to researchers, algorithm developers, policy makers, and clinical practitioners.

Health guidance intervention mitigates the escalation of predicted comprehensive cardiovascular disease risk: Interrupted time series design

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic syndrome increases the risk of cardiovascular events. Despite the Japanese healthcare system's efforts in early detection and intervention, particularly through Specific Health Checkup and Guidance programs, research on their effectiveness is limited. This study evaluated the impact of Specific Health Guidance on the predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in working-age Japanese individuals.

METHODS

Employing an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design, this study compared the trends in predicted ASCVD risk and each individual risk factor used for the prediction of ASCVD risk before and after intervention in individuals participating in the guidance.

RESULTS

Analyses based on the ITS design indicated that participation in Specific Health Guidance programs, specifically the intensive level program, mitigates the increase trend of the predicted ASCVD risk. On the other hand, the impact on the trends of individual cardiovascular risk factors was minimal.

CONCLUSIONS

The intensive level Specific Health Guidance appeared to reduce the increasing trend in ASCVD risk, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive risk assessment in evaluating health interventions. However, the results are limited owing to the specific demographics and short evaluation period. Further research is necessary to understand the long-term impacts and broader applicability.

Primary aldosteronism patients with previous cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events have high aldosterone responsiveness to ACTH stimulation

Aldosterone secretion in primary aldosteronism (PA) is often regulated by adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) in addition to its autonomous secretion. However, the clinical characteristics and risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular (CCV) events in PA patients with aldosterone responsiveness to ACTH stimulation remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of CCV events in PA patients with high aldosterone responsiveness to ACTH stimulation. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted as part of the Japan Primary Aldosteronism Study/Japan Rare Intractable Adrenal Disease project. PA patients with adrenal venous sampling (AVS) between January 2006 and March 2019 were enrolled. The ACTH-stimulated plasma aldosterone concentration (PAC) of the inferior vena cava during AVS was used to evaluate aldosterone responsiveness to ACTH. We analyzed the relationship between responsiveness and previous CCV events. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the ΔPAC (the difference between the PAC measurements before and after ACTH stimulation) significantly increased the odds of previous CCV events in PA patients after adjusting for classical CCV event risk factors, baseline PAC and duration of hypertension (relative PAC: odds ratio [OR], 2.896; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.989-8.482; ΔPAC: OR, 2.344; 95% CI, 1.149-4.780; ACTH-stimulated PAC: OR, 2.098; 95% CI, 0.694-6.339). This study clearly demonstrated that aldosterone responsiveness to ACTH is closely related to previous CCV events. The responsiveness of the PAC to ACTH could be useful in predicting CCV event risk.Registration Number in UMIN-CTR is UMIN000032525.

Sex in cardiovascular disease: Why this biological variable should be considered in in vitro models

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), the world's leading cause of death, exhibits notable epidemiological, clinical, and pathophysiological differences between sexes. Many such differences can be linked back to cardiovascular sexual dimorphism, yet sex-specific in vitro models are still not the norm. A lack of sex reporting and apparent male bias raises the question of whether in vitro CVD models faithfully recapitulate the biology of intended treatment recipients. To ensure equitable treatment for the overlooked female patient population, sex as a biological variable (SABV) inclusion must become commonplace in CVD preclinical research. Here, we discuss the role of sex in CVD and underlying cardiovascular (patho)physiology. We review shortcomings in current SABV practices, describe the relevance of sex, and highlight emerging strategies for SABV inclusion in three major in vitro model types: primary cell, stem cell, and three-dimensional models. Last, we identify key barriers to inclusive design and suggest techniques for overcoming them.

Cost-effectiveness of behavioural counselling intervention compared with non-intervention for adult patients with metabolic syndrome to prevent cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes in Japan: a microsimulation modelling study

OBJECTIVES

Nationwide lifestyle intervention-specific health guidance (SHG) in Japan-employs counselling and education to change unhealthy behaviours that contribute to metabolic syndrome, especially obesity or abdominal obesity. We aimed to perform a model-based economic evaluation of SHG in a low participation rate setting.

DESIGN

A hypothetical population, comprised 50 000 Japanese aged 40 years who met the criteria of the SHG, used a microsimulation using the Markov model to evaluate SHG's cost-effectiveness compared with non-SHG. This hypothetical population was simulated over a 35-year time horizon.

SETTING

SHG is conducted annually by all Japanese insurers.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Model parameters, such as costs and health outcomes (including quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs), were based on existing literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated from the healthcare payer's perspective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty around the model input parameters.

RESULTS

The simulation revealed that the total costs per person in the SHG group decreased by JPY53 014 (US$480) compared with that in the non-SHG group, and the QALYs increased by 0.044, wherein SHG was considered the dominant strategy despite the low participation rates. PSA indicated that the credibility intervals (2.5th-97.5th percentile) of the incremental costs and the incremental QALYs with the SHG group compared with the non-SHG group were -JPY687 376 to JPY85 197 (-US$6226 to US$772) and -0.009 to 0.350 QALYs, respectively. Each scenario analysis indicated that programmes for improving both blood pressure and blood glucose levels among other risk factors for metabolic syndrome are essential for improving cost-effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that even small effects of counselling and education on behavioural modification may lead to the prevention of acute life-threatening events and chronic diseases, in addition to the reduction of medication resulting from metabolic syndrome, which results in cost savings.

Prediction of the 4-Year Incidence Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Healthy Japanese Adults: The Fukushima Health Database

AIM

Estimating the risk of developing ischemic stroke (IS) may assist health professionals in motivating individuals to modify their risk behavior.

METHODS

A predictive model was derived from 178,186 participants from Fukushima Health Database, aged 40-74 years, who attended the health checkup in 2014 and completed at least one annual health checkup by 2018 (Cohort I). Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to build a 4-year prediction model, thus the risk scores were based on the regression coefficients. External validation for the risk scores was conducted in another cohort of 46,099 participants following between 2015 and 2019 (Cohort II).

RESULTS

The 4-year cumulated incidence rate of IS was 179.80/100,000 person-years in Cohort I. The predictive model included age, sex, blood pressure, hypertension treatment, diabetes, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, walking pace, and body weight change of 3 kg within one year. Risk scores were interpreted based on the Cohort I predictive model function. The Harrell's C-statistics of the discrimination ability of the risk score model (95% confidence interval) was 0.744 (0.729-0.759) in Cohort I and 0.770 (0.743-0.797) in Cohort II. The overall agreement of the risk score probability of IS incidence for the observed/expected case ratio and 95% CI was 0.98 (0.92-1.05) in Cohort I and 1.08 (0.95-1.22) in Cohort II.

CONCLUSIONS

The 4-year risk prediction model revealed a good performance for IS incidence, and risk scores could be used to estimate individual incidence risk of IS. Updated models with additional confirmed risk variables may be needed.

Thoracic Aortic Plaque Burden and Prediction of Cardiovascular Events in Patients Undergoing 320-row Multidetector CT Coronary Angiography

AIM

Wide volume scan (WVS) coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) enables aortic arch visualization. This study assessed whether the thoracic aortic plaque burden (TAPB) score can predict major cardiovascular adverse events (MACE) in addition to and independently of other obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) attributes.

METHODS

This study included patients with suspected CAD who underwent CCTA (n=455). CCTA-WVS was used to assess CAD and the prognostic capacity of TAPB scores. Data analysis included the coronary artery calcification score (CACS), CAD status and extent, and TAPB score, calculated as the sum of plaque thickness and plaque angle at five thoracic aortic segments. The primary endpoint was MACE defined as a composite event comprised of ischemic stroke, acute coronary syndrome, and cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 2.8±0.9 years, 40 of 455 (8.8%) patients experienced MACE. In the Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for clinical risks (Suita cardiovascular disease risk score), we identified TAPB score (T3) as a predictor of MACE independent of CACS ＞400 (hazards ratio [HR], 2.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-6.72; p=0.012) or obstructive CAD (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.30-6.18; p=0.009). The area under the curve for predicting MACE improved from 0.75 to 0.795 (p value=0.008) when TAPB score was added to CACS ＞400 and obstructive CAD.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that comprehensive non-invasive evaluation of TAPB and CAD has prognostic value in MACE risk stratification for suspected CAD patients undergoing CCTA.

Enhancing heart disease prediction using a self-attention-based transformer model

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) continue to be the leading cause of more than 17 million mortalities worldwide. The early detection of heart failure with high accuracy is crucial for clinical trials and therapy. Patients will be categorized into various types of heart disease based on characteristics like blood pressure, cholesterol levels, heart rate, and other characteristics. With the use of an automatic system, we can provide early diagnoses for those who are prone to heart failure by analyzing their characteristics. In this work, we deploy a novel self-attention-based transformer model, that combines self-attention mechanisms and transformer networks to predict CVD risk. The self-attention layers capture contextual information and generate representations that effectively model complex patterns in the data. Self-attention mechanisms provide interpretability by giving each component of the input sequence a certain amount of attention weight. This includes adjusting the input and output layers, incorporating more layers, and modifying the attention processes to collect relevant information. This also makes it possible for physicians to comprehend which features of the data contributed to the model's predictions. The proposed model is tested on the Cleveland dataset, a benchmark dataset of the University of California Irvine (UCI) machine learning (ML) repository. Comparing the proposed model to several baseline approaches, we achieved the highest accuracy of 96.51%. Furthermore, the outcomes of our experiments demonstrate that the prediction rate of our model is higher than that of other cutting-edge approaches used for heart disease prediction.

Fatty Liver Index as a proxy for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the risk of stroke and coronary heart disease: The Suita Study

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease in developed countries, but its role in predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) needs further investigation. Herein, we studied the association between NAFLD and the risk of CVD, stroke, and coronary heart disease (CHD) among Japanese people.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study analyzed data from 2,517 men and 3,958 women, aged 30-84 years, who were registered in the Suita Study. NAFLD was defined as Fatty Liver Index (FLI) ≥ 60. Cox proportional hazard models were applied to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of incident CVD, stroke, and CHD events by baseline FLI. The results were adjusted for age, smoking, alcohol consumption, hypertension, diabetes, lipid profile, chronic kidney disease, and cardiac murmur or valvular diseases.

RESULTS

Within 16.6 years of median follow-up, 590 participants developed CVD (346 stroke events and 244 CHD events). Women with NAFLD (FLI ≥ 60) showed a higher risk of CVD and stroke: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.69 (1.16, 2.46) and 2.06 (1.31, 3.24), respectively. Besides, women in the fourth and fifth (highest) FLI quintiles showed a higher risk of CVD and stroke than those in the third (middle) quintile: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.60 (1.08, 2.36) and 1.67 (1.13, 2.45) for CVD and 1.73 (1.07, 2.79) and 1.90 (1.18, 3.05) for stroke, respectively. No corresponding associations were detected in men. NAFLD was not associated with CHD risk in either sex.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD, diagnosed by FLI, was associated with a higher risk of CVD and stroke in Japanese women. From a preventive perspective, women with NAFLD should be targeted for CVD screenings and interventions.

Development of a plasma-free amino acid-based risk score for the incidence of cardiovascular diseases in a general population: The Nagahama study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Levels of circulating amino acids (AAs) have been suggested to be associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aimed to develop a plasma-free amino acid (PFAA)-based CVD risk-prediction model in a general population.

METHODS

The study participants consisted of 9220 community residents (mean age, 53.2 years; standard deviation, 13.3 years). Circulating levels of 19 PFAAs were measured via high-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. The incidence of CVDs was determined by reviewing participants' clinical records. The prediction model was developed using the Cox proportional hazards model with the brute force variable selection and then cross-validated.

RESULTS

During the 8.5-year follow-up, 220 CVD events were observed. Six AAs (alanine, citrulline, glycine, histidine, serine, and tyrosine) were identified as components of the prediction model, of which the C-index was 0.72. The association between the fourth quartile of the risk score calculated using the prediction model and the CVD events was independent of conventional risk factors (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.9; 95 % confidence interval, 1.1-3.3). When examining crude relationships between conventional risk factors and the PFAA-based risk score by subgroup analyses, the association was significant for most subpopulations, men [crude HR = 6.4 (2.0-20.2)] and women [crude HR = 4.9 (2.6-9.3)], and individuals with [crude HR = 4.7 (2.5-8.9)] and without [crude HR = 7.2 (2.7-18.9)] lifestyle-related diseases, but not for older (≥70 years) participants [crude HR = 3.3 (0.8-13.5)]. The risk score successfully identified at-risk individuals [HR = 2.1 (1.2-3.5)] from participants who were classified as low risk by a conventional CVD risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

The PFAA-based risk score predicted CVD events independently of conventional risk factors.

Haemophilia and cardiovascular disease in Japan: Low incidence rates from ADVANCE Japan baseline data

INTRODUCTION

With the increasing life expectancy of people with haemophilia, the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and thrombotic events has become a growing concern. Longitudinal studies on the incidence and risk factors of CVD in this population are limited, and optimal prevention and treatment strategies are yet to be established.

AIM

This study aimed to present the baseline data of a prospective longitudinal study focusing on a subset of Japanese patients with haemophilia, specifically investigated the incidence, risk factors and treatment modalities for CVD and thrombotic diseases in people aged 40 years in Japan over 10 years through the ADVANCE Japan study.

METHODS

The ADVANCE Japan study is a prospective multicentre cohort study involving 600 adult individuals with haemophilia A/B aged 40 years in Japan. The primary endpoint was the incidence of CVD, with secondary endpoints encompassing anticoagulant use, mortality rates, and comparison with the general population.

RESULTS

Baseline data from the 600 participants revealed that thrombotic events occurred in 13 individuals (2.2%), mostly in those with haemophilia A. Atrial fibrillation was observed in 11 participants (1.8%). Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were identified as the prevalent risk factors. Various prophylactic treatments were employed, and no severe bleeding events were observed during the study period.

CONCLUSION

This study provides vital baseline data for a 10-year prospective investigation of CVD and thrombotic disease risk in people with haemophilia. These findings will contribute to refining prevention and treatment approaches and improving patients' quality of life.

New 2019 JSH guidelines and the risk of incident cardiovascular disease: The Suita Study

Hypertension is the most critical risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Since the definition of hypertension varies across guidelines, identifying blood pressure (BP) categories that should be targeted to prevent CVD is needed. Herein, we investigated the association between BP per the 2019 Japanese Society of Hypertension (JSH) guidelines and the risk of CVD, stroke, and coronary heart disease (CHD) using data from 7,643 participants (30-84 years) registered in the Suita Study. Within 113,838 person-years (16.6 median years of follow-up), 690 participants developed CVD (411 cases of stroke and 279 cases of CHD). Compared to normal BP (Systolic BP (SBP) < 120 and diastolic BP (DBP) < 80 mmHg), elevated BP (SBP 130-139 and/or DBP 80-89 mmHg) and hypertension (SBP ≥ 140 and/or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg) were associated with a higher risk of CVD, stroke, and CHD. High-normal BP (SBP 120-129 and DBP < 80 mmHg) was associated with a higher risk of CVD and CHD. In conclusion, CVD preventive interventions should begin at lower BP levels than those applied in the 2019 JSH guidelines.

Blood pressure per the 2017 ACC/AHA and 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines and heart failure risk: the Suita Study

Hypertension is a significant risk factor for heart failure (HF). Since hypertension definition varies across guidelines, identifying blood pressure (BP) categories that should be targeted to prevent HF is required. We, therefore, investigated the association between hypertension per the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and 2018 European Society of Cardiology/European Society of Hypertension (ESC/ESH) guidelines and HF risk. This prospective cohort study included randomly selected 2809 urban Japanese people from the Suita Study. Cox regression was used to assess HF risk, in the form of hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), for different BP categories in both guidelines, compared to a reference category defined as systolic BP (SBP) <120 mmHg and diastolic BP (DBP) <80 mmHg. Within 8 years of median follow-up, 339 HF cases were detected. Per the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines, hypertension I and II and isolated systolic hypertension were associated with increased HF risk: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.81 (1.33-2.47), 1.68 (1.24-2.27), and 1.64 (1.13-2.39), respectively. Per the 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines, high-normal BP, hypertension I, II, and III, and isolated systolic hypertension were associated with increased HF risk: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.88 (1.35-2.62), 1.57 (1.13-2.16), 2.10 (1.34-3.29), 2.57 (1.15-5.77), and 1.51 (1.04-2.19), respectively. In conclusion, hypertension and isolated systolic hypertension per the 2017 ACC/AHA and 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines and high-normal BP per the 2018 ESC/ESH guidelines are risk factors for HF.

Development and validation of ischemic heart disease and stroke prognostic models using large-scale real-world data from Japan

BACKGROUND

Previous cardiovascular risk prediction models in Japan have utilized prospective cohort studies with concise data. As the health information including health check-up records and administrative claims becomes digitalized and publicly available, application of large datasets based on such real-world data can achieve prediction accuracy and support social implementation of cardiovascular disease risk prediction models in preventive and clinical practice. In this study, classical regression and machine learning methods were explored to develop ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke prognostic models using real-world data.

METHODS

IQVIA Japan Claims Database was searched to include 691,160 individuals (predominantly corporate employees and their families working in secondary and tertiary industries) with at least one annual health check-up record during the identification period (April 2013-December 2018). The primary outcome of the study was the first recorded IHD or stroke event. Predictors were annual health check-up records at the index year-month, comprising demographic characteristics, laboratory tests, and questionnaire features. Four prediction models (Cox, Elnet-Cox, XGBoost, and Ensemble) were assessed in the present study to develop a cardiovascular disease risk prediction model for Japan.

RESULTS

The analysis cohort consisted of 572,971 invididuals. All prediction models showed similarly good performance. The Harrell's C-index was close to 0.9 for all IHD models, and above 0.7 for stroke models. In IHD models, age, sex, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure had higher importance, while in stroke models systolic blood pressure and age had higher importance.

CONCLUSION

Our study analyzed classical regression and machine learning algorithms to develop cardiovascular disease risk prediction models for IHD and stroke in Japan that can be applied to practical use in a large population with predictive accuracy.

Development of new scores for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease using specific medical examination items: the Suita Study

BACKGROUND

We previously developed risk models predicting stroke, coronary heart disease (CHD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Japanese people from the Suita Study. Yet, applying these models at the national level was challenging because some of the included risk factors differed from those collected in the Japanese governmental health check-ups, such as Tokutei-Kenshin. We, therefore, conducted this study to develop new risk models for stroke, CHD, and atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), based on data from the Suita Study. The new models used traditional cardiovascular risk factors similar to those in the Japanese governmental health check-ups.

METHODS

We included 7,413 participants, aged 30-84 years, initially free from stroke and CHD. All participants received baseline health examinations, including a questionnaire assessing their lifestyle and medical history, medical examination, and blood and urine analysis. The risk factors of stroke, CHD, and ASCVD (cerebral infarction or CHD) were determined using the multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. The models' performance was assessed using the C-statistics for discrimination and the Hosmer-Lemeshow for calibration. We also developed three simple scores (zero to 100) that could predict the 10-year incidence of stroke, CHD, and ASCVD.

RESULTS

Within 110,428 person-years (median follow-up = 16.6 years), 410 stroke events, 288 CHD events, and 527 ASCVD events were diagnosed. Age, smoking, hypertension, and diabetes were associated with stroke, CHD, and ASCVD risk. Men and those with decreased high-density lipoproteins or increased low-density lipoproteins showed a higher risk of CHD and ASCVD. Urinary proteins were associated with an increased risk of stroke and ASCVD. The C-statistic values of the risk models were >0.750 and the p-values of goodness-of-fit were >0.30. The 10-year incidence of stroke, CVD, and ASCVD events was 3.8%, 3.5%, and 5.7% for scores 45-54, 10.3%, 11.8%, and 19.6% for scores 65-74, and 27.7%, 23.5%, and 60.5% for scores ≥85, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed new Suita risk models for stroke, CHD, and ASCVD using variables similar to those in the Japanese governmental health check-ups. We also developed new risk scores to predict incident stroke, CHD, and ASCVD within 10 years.

Association between atherosclerosis, hearing recovery, and hearing in the healthy ear in idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss: a retrospective chart analysis

Atherosclerosis is reported to be a risk factor for the severity of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL). We evaluated the hypothesis that atherosclerosis affects the hearing thresholds of both the affected and healthy sides of ISSNHL patients. We conducted multivariate analyses on retrospectively collected data of patients with ISSNHL (N = 762) to evaluate the relationship between known factors linked to atherosclerosis and hearing thresholds on affected and healthy sides and whether these factors are prognostic for hearing recovery. Older ages, vertigo or dizziness, diabetes mellitus, and congestive heart failure were significantly related to higher hearing thresholds on the affected side. Older ages, male, and vascular disease were significantly related to higher hearing thresholds on the healthy side. Vertigo or dizziness, severe hearing loss and hearing loss at high frequencies on the affected side, higher hearing thresholds on the healthy side, regular anticoagulant medication, and delayed steroid treatment were significantly related to lack of recovery. Since several atherosclerosis-related factors are associated with higher hearing thresholds on both affected and healthy sides in ISSNHL and higher hearing thresholds on the healthy side predict poorer prognosis, diagnosis, and predicting prognosis of ISSNHL may benefit from rigorous evaluation of patients' cardiovascular comorbidities and hearing levels on both the healthy and affected sides.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Using Machine Learning in a Large Japanese Cohort

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) screening entails precise event prediction to orient risk stratification, resource allocation, and insurance policy. We used random survival forests (RSF) to identify markers of incident CVD among Japanese adults enrolled in an employer-mandated screening program. Methods and Results: We examined biomarker, health history, medication use, and lifestyle data from 155,108 adults aged ≥40 years. The occurrence of coronary artery disease (CAD) or atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) events was examined over 6 years of follow-up. The analysis used RSF to identify predictors, then investigated simplified RSF models with fewer predictors for individual-level risk prediction. Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) datasets. At baseline, the median patient age was 47 years (interquartile range 41-56 years), with 65% males. In all, 1,642 CAD and 2,164 ASCVD events were observed. RSF identified history of heart disease, age, self-reported blood pressure medication, HbA1c, fasting blood sugar, and high-density lipoprotein as important markers of both endpoints. RSF analyses with only the top 20 predictors demonstrated good performance, with areas under the curve of >84% for CAD and >82% for ASCVD in test data across 6 years. Conclusions: We present a machine learning technique for accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk using employer-mandated annual health checkup information. The algorithm produces individual-level risk curves over time, empowering clinicians to efficiently implement prevention strategies in a low-risk population.

Association between Indoor Temperature in Winter and Serum Cholesterol: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Smart Wellness Housing Survey in Japan

AIM

Issuance of the WHO Housing and health guidelines has paralleled growing interest in the housing environment. Despite accumulating evidence of an association between outdoor temperature and serum cholesterol, indoor temperature has not been well investigated. This study examined the association between indoor temperature and serum cholesterol.

METHODS

We collected valid health checkup data of 2004 participants (1333 households), measured the indoor temperature for 2 weeks in winter, and divided participants according to whether they lived in a warm (average bedroom temperature ≥ 18℃), slightly cold (12-18℃) or cold house (＜12˚C). The relationship between bedroom temperature and serum cholesterol was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression models, adjusting for demographics, lifestyle habits and the season in which the health checkup was conducted, with a random effect of climate areas in Japan.

RESULTS

The sample sizes for warm, slightly cold, and cold houses were 206, 940, and 858, respectively. Compared to those in warm houses, the odds ratio of total cholesterol exceeding 220 mg/dL was 1.83 (95%CI: 1.23-2.71, p=0.003) for participants in slightly cold houses and 1.87 (95%CI: 1.25-2.80, p=0.002) in cold houses. Similarly, the odds ratio of LDL/non-HDL cholesterol exceeding the standard range was 1.49 (p=0.056)/1.67 (p=0.035) for those in slightly cold houses and 1.64 (p=0.020)/1.77 (p=0.021) in cold houses. HDL cholesterol and triglycerides were not significantly associated with bedroom temperature.

CONCLUSION

Besides lifestyle modification, improving indoor thermal environment through strategies such as installing high thermal insulation and appropriate use of heating devices may contribute to better serum cholesterol condition.

A novel behavioral science-based health checkup program and subsequent metabolic risk reductions in a workplace: Checkup championship

The effectiveness of general health checkups and lifestyle counseling has been questioned. This study examined whether a workplace health promotion program implemented during a health checkup was associated with metabolic syndrome-related indicators. Hakuhodo DY group, one of Japan's largest advertising agencies, implemented a behavioral science-based program called "Checkup Championship" (Kenshin-sen in Japanese) in 2019, in which all employees could voluntarily participate. We studied 3697 employees (2818 men and 879 women, mean age: 40.7 years), consisting of 1509 program participants and 2188 non-participants. The characteristics of participants and non-participants were balanced using inverse probability weighting. We used their data from the health checkups in 2018 and 2019 together with other covariates and performed a difference-in-differences analysis using a linear mixed model. After program implementation, greater reductions were observed among participants compared with non-participants in weight (-0.66 kg, 95% confidence interval: -0.84 to -0.47), body mass index (-0.23 kg/m², -0.29 to -0.16), waist circumference (-0.67 cm, -0.91 to -0.43), systolic blood pressure (-1.13 mmHg, -2.10 to -0.16), and diastolic blood pressure (-0.84 mmHg, -1.53 to -0.15). In addition, we observed greater reductions in weight, body mass index, waist circumference, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol among participants who were with two or more risk factors for metabolic syndrome than other participants. We found that participation in a health checkup program based on behavioral science was associated with reduced metabolic syndrome-related indicators. There may be room for improvement in the effectiveness of general health checkups.

QRS transitional zone rotations and the risk of atrial fibrillation: the Suita Study

ECG screening can detect people at risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF). Recent literature indicated that QRS transitional zone rotations could predict several cardiovascular events. Herein, we investigated the association between QRS transitional zone rotations and the future risk of AF. This prospective cohort study included 6794 participants (3178 men and 3616 women), aged 30-84 years, from the urban Japanese city of Suita. QRS transitional zone rotations were diagnosed by ECG during baseline, while AF was diagnosed by ECG, hospital records, and checkups during follow-up. The Cox regression was used to compute the sex-specified hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident AF for participants with counterclockwise and clockwise QRS transitional zone rotations compared to those with normal rotation. Within a median follow-up period of 14.6 years, 311 participants (206 men and 105 women) developed AF. Counterclockwise rotation was associated with the reduced risk of AF among men, but not women, in the age-adjusted model: HR (95% CI) = 0.66 (0.44, 0.98) and the multivariable-adjusted model: HR (95% CI) = 0.65 (0.43, 0.97). Clockwise rotation was not associated with AF risk in either sex. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to indicate that counterclockwise rotation could be associated with the reduced risk of AF in men. More studies are needed to confirm our findings and elucidate possible mechanisms.

Estimating Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Among Long-Term Colorectal Cancer Survivors: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background

Concerns about a growing number of colorectal cancer survivors have emerged regarding cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. However, there is not yet a predictive tool that can estimate CVD risk and support the management of healthcare as well as disease prevention in terms of CVD risk among long-term colorectal cancer survivors.

Aim

To develop predictive tools to estimate individualized overall and each subtype of CVD risk using a nationwide cohort in South Korea.

Methods and Results

A total of 4,709 newly diagnosed patients with colorectal cancer who survived at least 5 years in the National Health Insurance System were analyzed. Cox proportional hazard regression was used for the identification of independent risk factors for the derivation of predictive nomograms, which were validated in an independent cohort (n = 3,957). Age, fasting serum glucose, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, Charlson comorbidity index, household income, body mass index, history of chemotherapy, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption were identified as independent risk factors for either overall CVD or each subtype of CVD subtype. Based on the identified independent risk factors, six independent nomograms for each CVD category were developed. Validation by an independent cohort demonstrated a good calibration with a median C-index of 0.687. According to the nomogram-derived median score, relative risks of 2.643, 1.821, 4.656, 2.629, 4.248, and 5.994 were found for overall CVD, ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhage stroke in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

The predictive tools were developed with satisfactory accuracy. The derived nomograms may support the estimation of overall and individual CVD risk for long-term colorectal cancer survivors.

Mild Hypertensive Retinopathy and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: The Suita Study

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the association of mild hypertensive retinopathy with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

METHODS

A total of 7,027 residents aged 30-79 years without a history of CVD participated in the annual health checkups and retinal photography assessments. Retinal microvascular abnormalities were graded using the standard protocols and classified according to the Keith-Wagener-Barker classification. Mild hypertensive retinopathy was defined as grades 1 and 2. Cox proportional hazard model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for total CVD and its subtypes according to the presence and absence of mild hypertensive retinopathy.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 17 years, 351 incident stroke and 247 coronary heart disease (CHD) cases were diagnosed. After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, mild hypertensive retinopathy was positively associated with risk of CVD (multivariable HR=1.24; 95% CI, 1.04-1.49) and stroke (1.28; 1.01-1.62) but not with risk of CHD (1.19; 0.89-1.58). Generalized arteriolar narrowing and enhanced arteriolar wall reflex were positively associated with CVD risk, the multivariable HR (95% CI) was 1.24 (1.00- 1.54)and 1.33 (1.02-1.74), respectively. Moreover, mild hypertensive retinopathy was positively associated with stroke risk in normotensive participants.

CONCLUSION

Mild hypertensive retinopathy was positively associated with CVD and stroke risk in the urban Japanese population. Especially, generalized arteriolar narrowing and enhanced arteriolar wall reflex were positively associated with CVD risk. These findings suggested that retinal photography could be helpful for cardiovascular risk stratification in the primary cardiovascular prevention.

Developing a Stroke Risk Prediction Model Using Cardiovascular Risk Factors: The Suita Study

INTRODUCTION

Stroke remains a major cause of death and disability in Japan and worldwide. Detecting individuals at high risk for stroke to apply preventive approaches is recommended. This study aimed to develop a stroke risk prediction model among urban Japanese using cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS

We followed 6,641 participants aged 30-79 years with neither a history of stroke nor coronary heart disease. The Cox proportional hazard model estimated the risk of stroke incidence adjusted for potential confounders at the baseline survey. The model's performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. The internal validity of the risk model was tested using derivation and validation samples. Regression coefficients were used for score calculation.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up duration of 17.1 years, 372 participants developed stroke. A risk model including older age, current smoking, increased blood pressure, impaired fasting blood glucose and diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atrial fibrillation predicted stroke incidence with an area under the curve = 0.76 and p value of the goodness of fit = 0.21. This risk model was shown to be internally valid (p value of the goodness of fit in the validation sample = 0.64). On a risk score from 0 to 26, the incidence of stroke for the categories 0-5, 6-7, 8-9, 10-11, 12-13, 14-15, and 16-26 was 1.1%, 2.1%, 5.4%, 8.2%, 9.0%, 13.5%, and 18.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed a new stroke risk model for the urban general population in Japan. Further research to determine the clinical practicality of this model is required.

Aortic arch calcification with pericardial fat mass detected on a single chest X-ray image is closely associated with the predictive variables of future cardiovascular disease

This study evaluated the associations between aortic arch calcification (AAC) with pericardial fat (PF) mass detected on a single chest X-ray image and predictive variables of future cardiovascular disease (CVD). The subjects were 353 patients treated with at least one of the hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes. All subjects were evaluated for AAC; divided into 3 groups with AAC grades of 0, 1, or 2; and examined for the presence of PF. Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT, n = 353), cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI, n = 218), the Suita score (n = 353), and cardiovascular risk points defined in the Hisayama study (n = 353), an assessment of the risk of future cardiovascular disease, were measured. The relationship of AAC grades, with or without PF, and CVD risks was evaluated. The IMT (1.62 ± 0.74 mm, 2.33 ± 1.26, and 2.43 ± 0.89 in patients with AAC grade 0, 1 and 2, respectively, p < 0.001), CAVI (8.09 ± 1.32, 8.71 ± 1.32, and 9.37 ± 1.17, respectively, p < 0.001), the Suita score (46.6 ± 10.7, 51.8 ± 8.3, and 54.2 ± 8.2, respectively, p < 0.001), and cardiovascular risk points (8.5 ± 2.6, 10.6 ± 2.3, and 11.5 ± 2.3, respectively, p < 0.001) were significantly elevated with AAC progression. Multinomial logistic regression analysis adjusted for clinical characteristics showed that the relative risk ratios of the Suita score or cardiovascular risk points were elevated according to the progress of AAC grade with PF. Therefore, aortic arch calcification with pericardial mass detected on a single chest X-ray image is closely associated with the predictive variables of future CVD.

The Risk of Fasting Triglycerides and its Related Indices for Ischemic Cardiovascular Diseases in Japanese Community Dwellers: the Suita Study

Aim: A prospective cohort study in a Japanese urban general population was performed to investigate whether triglyceride (TG) and its related indices were associated with the risk for the incidence of ischemic cardiovascular disease (CVD) after the adjustment for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in Asian community dwellers.

Methods: A 15.1-year prospective cohort study was performed in 6,684 Japanese community dwellers aged 30–79 years without a history of CVD and whose fasting TG levels were ＜400 mg/dL. After adjusting for covariates, including LDL-C, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the deciles (D) of TG and those of 1-standard deviation (SD) increment of log-transformed TG (1-SD of TG) according to LDL-C level (≥ 140 and ＜140 mg/dL) for ischemic CVD incidence were estimated. The multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95%CIs of the quintiles (Q) of TG, TG/HDL-C, and the cardiometabolic index (CMI) for ischemic CVD were also estimated.

Results: In 101,230 person-years, 464 ischemic CVD cases occurred. For D ₁₀ of TG, the HR (95%CI) was 1.56 (1.05–2.32), and for 1-SD of TG, it was 1.30 (1.00–1.70) in participants with LDL-C ＜140 mg/dL and 1.07 (0.77–1.50) in those with LDL-C ≥ 140 mg/dL. For Q ₅ of the CMI, the multivariable-adjusted HR was higher than those of TG and TG/HDL-C.

Conclusions: Fasting TG was an independent predictor for ischemic CVD incidence after adjusting for LDL-C in Japanese community dwellers with TG ＜400 mg/dL. Among TG, TG/HDL-C, and the CMI, the CMI could be the most powerful predictor for ischemic CVD.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Japanese Adults: The Hisayama Study

AIM

To develop and validate a new risk prediction model for predicting the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Japanese adults.

METHODS

A total of 2,454 participants aged 40-84 years without a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were prospectively followed up for 24 years. An incident ASCVD event was defined as the first occurrence of coronary heart disease or atherothrombotic brain infarction. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to construct the prediction model. In addition, a simplified scoring system was translated from the developed prediction model. The model performance was evaluated using Harrell's C statistics, a calibration plot with the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test, and a bootstrap validation procedure.

RESULTS

During a median of a 24-year follow-up, 270 participants experienced the first ASCVD event. The predictors of the ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, proteinuria, smoking habits, and regular exercise. The developed models exhibited good discrimination with negligible evidence of overfitting (Harrell's C statistics: 0.786 for the multivariable model and 0.789 for the simplified score) and good calibrations (the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.29 for the multivariable model, 0.52 for the simplified score).

CONCLUSION

We constructed a risk prediction model for the development of ASCVD in Japanese adults. This prediction model exhibits great potential as a tool for predicting the risk of ASCVD in clinical practice by enabling the identification of specific risk factors for ASCVD in individual patients.

Relationships between Smoking Status, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and Lipoproteins in a Large Japanese Population

Aims: Smoking is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), a leading cause of death and disability. Other CVD risk factors include age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, increased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). Our goal was to assess relationships between smoking status and CVD risk factors, with a focus on direct LDL-C, HDL-C, triglycerides (TG) and small dense LDL-C (sdLDL-C).

Methods: A total of 34,497 Japanese men and women, mean age 51 years, had their CVD risk factors including fasting serum total cholesterol, TG, HDL-C, sdLDL-C, and direct LDL-C assessed. One-way ANOVA and multiple linear regression analyses were carried to assess the interrelationships of these parameters with smoking.

Results: In both men and women, current smokers had significantly ( p ＜0.001) higher median TG (+19.6%, +16.9%) and sdLDL-C levels (+12.7%, +4.2%) levels, and significantly ( p ＜0.001) lower HDL-C levels (-7.3%, -4.3%) than non-smokers. They were also significantly ( p ＜0.05) more likely to have TG values ＞150 mg/dL (+56.8%, +116.3%), sdLDL-C ＞40.1 mg/dL (+28.8%, +44.9%), and HDL-C ＜40 mg/dL (+89.8%, +114.3%). Ex-smokers generally had lipid values that were intermediate between non-smokers and current smokers. Multivariate analysis confirmed the significance of these relationships.

Conclusion: Our data indicate that current cigarette smoking is associated with increased TG and sdLDL-C levels, as well as decreased HDL-C levels. Furthermore, smoking effect on lipid profiles remain after cessation. These data provide further justification for smoking cessation.

Estimation of 10-Year Risk of Death from Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, and Cardiovascular Disease in a Pooled Analysis of Japanese Cohorts: EPOCH-JAPAN

AIMS

We aimed to develop and validate risk prediction models to estimate the absolute 10-year risk of death from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

We evaluated a total of 44,869 individuals aged 40-79 years from eight Japanese prospective cohorts to derive coefficients of risk equations using cohort-stratified Cox proportional hazard regression models. Discrimination (C-index) of the equation was examined in each cohort and summarised using random-effect meta-analyses. Calibration of the equation was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistic.

RESULTS

Within a median follow-up of 12.7 years, we observed 765 deaths due to CVD (276 CHDs and 489 strokes). After backward selection, age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), proteinuria, prevalent diabetes mellitus, the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDLC), interaction terms of age by SBP, and age by current smoking were retained as predictors for CHD. Sex was excluded in the stroke equation. We did not consider TC/HDLC as a risk factor for the stroke and CVD equations. The pooled C-indices for CHD, stroke, and CVD were 0.83, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively, and the corresponding p-values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were 0.18, 0.003, and 0.25, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk equations in the present study can adequately estimate the absolute 10-year risk of death from CHD, stroke, and CVD. Future work will evaluate the system as an education and risk communication tool for primary prevention of CHD and stroke.