Decline in the Pregnancy Rate of Baltic Grey Seal Females during the 2000s

120-years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal

The Baltic Sea is home to a genetically isolated and morphologically distinct grey seal population. This population has been the subject of 120-years of careful documentation, from detailed records of bounty statistics to annual monitoring of health and abundance. It has also been exposed to a range of well-documented stressors, including hunting, pollution and climate change. To investigate the vulnerability of marine mammal populations to multiple stressors, data series relating to the Baltic grey seal population size, hunt and health were compiled, vital demographic rates were estimated, and a detailed population model was constructed. The Baltic grey seal population fell from approximately 90,000 to as few as 3000 individuals during the 1900s as the result of hunting and pollution. Subsequently, the population has recovered to approximately 55,000 individuals. Fertility levels for mature females have increased from 9% in the 1970s to 86% at present. The recovery of the population has led to demands for increased hunting, resulting in a sudden increase in annual quotas from a few hundred to 3550 in 2020. Simultaneously, environmental changes, such as warmer winters and reduced prey availability due to overfishing, are likely impacting fecundity and health. Future population development is projected for a range of hunting and environmental stress scenarios, illustrating how hunting, in combination with environmental degradation, can lead to population collapse. The current combined hunting quotas of all Baltic Nations caused a 10% population decline within three generations in 100% of simulations. To enable continued recovery of the population, combined annual quotas of less than 1900 are needed, although this quota should be re-evaluated annually as monitoring of population size and seal health continues. Sustainable management of long-lived slowly growing species requires an understanding of the drivers of population growth and the repercussions of management decisions over many decades. The case of the Baltic grey seal illustrates how long-term ecological time series are pivotal in establishing historical baselines in population abundance and demography to inform sustainable management.

Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic Population Model

Empirical evidence has shown that historical exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Baltic grey seals not only severely affected individual fitness, but also population growth rates and most likely caused the retarded recovery rate of the depleted population for decades. We constructed a new model which we term a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) population model to quantify these effects. The toxicokinetic sub-model describes in detail the bioaccumulation, elimination and vertical transfer from mother to offspring of PCBs and is linked to a toxicodynamic model for estimation of PCB-related damage, hazard and stress impacts on fertility and survival rates. Both sub-models were linked to a Leslie matrix population model to calculate changes in population growth rate and age structure, given different rates of PCB exposure. Toxicodynamic model parameters related to reproductive organ lesions were calibrated using published historical data on observed pregnancy rates in Baltic grey seal females. Compared to empirical data, the TKTD population model described well the age-specific bioaccumulation pattern of PCBs in Baltic grey seals, and thus, the toxicokinetic parameters, deduced from the literature, are believed to be reliable. The model also captured well the general effects of PCBs on historical population growth rates. The model showed that reduced fertility due to increased PCB exposure causes decreased vertical transfer from mother to offspring and in turn increased biomagnification in non-breeding females. The developed TKTD model can be used to perform population viability analyses of Baltic grey seals with multiple stressors, also including by-catches and different hunting regimes. The model can also be extended to other marine mammals and other contaminants by adjustments of model parameters and thus provides a test bed in silico for new substances.

Delayed effects of prey fish quality and winter temperature during the birth year on adult size and reproductive rate of Baltic grey seals

Environmental conditions of mammalian juveniles may have delayed effects on their life histories and fitness, such as body size or reproductive rate later in their lives. In the present study, we tested this hypothesis on Baltic grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and examined (1) the possible effects of prey fish quality and winter temperature on body condition of grey seal pups of both sexes and (2) the possible delayed impacts of pup environment on the body size and birth rate of adult grey seals. Body condition (blubber thickness) of especially female pups in April–May correlated negatively with winter temperatures, and body condition of male pups correlated positively with prey fish quality (herring Clupea harengus and sprat Sprattus sprattus weight). Males reached the asymptotic length at the age of 10.3 years, and body length of adult males (≥ 10 years old) was positively related to herring and sprat weight in their birth year. Females reached the asymptotic length at the age of 5.9 years. Birth rate of females (age 7–24 years) was negatively related to winter temperature in their birth year. We conclude that both changes in prey fish quality and climate may affect body condition of pups and thus also cause delayed effects on adult fitness: body size and reproductive rate of Baltic grey seals.