Pure additive contribution of genetic variants to a risk prediction model using propensity score matching: application to type 2 diabetes

A multicenter, prospective, observational study to determine association of mesangial C1q deposition with renal outcomes in IgA nephropathy

It was reported that histopathologic lesions are risk factors for the progression of IgA Nephropathy (IgAN). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between mesangial deposition of C1q and renal outcomes in IgAN. 1071 patients with primary IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy were enrolled in multiple study centers form January 2013 to January 2017. Patients were divided into two groups: C1q-positive and C1q-negative. Using a 1: 4 propensity score matching (PSM) method identifying age, gender, and treatment modality to minimize confounding factors, 580 matched (out of 926) C1q-negative patients were compared with 145 C1q-positive patients to evaluate severity of baseline clinicopathological features and renal outcome. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to determine whether mesangial C1q deposition is associated with renal outcomes in IgAN. During the follow-up period (41.89 ± 22.85 months), 54 (9.31%) patients in the C1q negative group and 23 (15.86%) patients in C1q positive group reached the endpoint (50% decline of eGFR and/or ESRD or death) respectively (p = 0.01) in the matched cohort. Significantly more patients in C1q negative group achieved complete or partial remission during the follow up period (P = 0.003) both before and after PSM. Three, 5 and 7-year renal survival rates in C1q-positive patients were significantly lower than C1q-negative patients in either unmatched cohort or matched cohort (all p < 0.05). Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that independent risk factors influencing renal survival included Scr, urinary protein, T1-T2 lesion and C1q deposition. Mesangial C1q deposition is a predictor of poor renal survival in IgA nephropathy.Trial registration TCTR, TCTR20140515001. Registered May 15, 2014, http://www.clinicaltrials.in.th/index.php?tp=regtrials&menu=trialsearch&smenu=fulltext&task=search&task2=view1&id=1074 .