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Strum RP, Mowbray FI, Zargoush M, Jones AP. Prehospital prediction of hospital admission for emergent acuity patients transported by paramedics: A population-based cohort study using machine learning. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0289429. [PMID: 37616228 PMCID: PMC10449470 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 08/26/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The closest emergency department (ED) may not always be the optimal hospital for certain stable high acuity patients if further distanced ED's can provide specialized care or are less overcrowded. Machine learning (ML) predictions may support paramedic decision-making to transport a subgroup of emergent patients to a more suitable, albeit more distanced, ED if hospital admission is unlikely. We examined whether characteristics known to paramedics in the prehospital setting were predictive of hospital admission in emergent acuity patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS We conducted a population-level cohort study using four ML algorithms to analyze ED visits of the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2019 in Ontario, Canada. We included all adult patients (≥18 years) transported to the ED by paramedics with an emergent Canadian Triage Acuity Scale score. We included eight characteristic classes as model predictors that are recorded at ED triage. All ML algorithms were trained and assessed using 10-fold cross-validation to predict hospital admission from the ED. Predictive model performance was determined using the area under curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals and probabilistic accuracy using the Brier Scaled score. Variable importance scores were computed to determine the top 10 predictors of hospital admission. RESULTS All machine learning algorithms demonstrated acceptable accuracy in predicting hospital admission (AUC 0.77-0.78, Brier Scaled 0.22-0.24). The characteristics most predictive of admission were age between 65 to 105 years, referral source from a residential care facility, presenting with a respiratory complaint, and receiving home care. DISCUSSION Hospital admission was accurately predicted based on patient characteristics known prehospital to paramedics prior to arrival. Our results support consideration of policy modification to permit certain emergent acuity patients to be transported to a further distanced ED. Additionally, this study demonstrates the utility of ML in paramedic and prehospital research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan P. Strum
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Fabrice I. Mowbray
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- College of Nursing, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Manaf Zargoush
- Department of Health Policy and Management, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Aaron P. Jones
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
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Qian AS, Qiao EM, Nalawade V, Voora RS, Kotha NV, Dameff C, Coyne CJ, Murphy JD. Impact of underlying malignancy on emergency department utilization and outcomes. Cancer Med 2021; 10:9129-9138. [PMID: 34821051 PMCID: PMC8683529 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.4414] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2021] [Revised: 10/14/2021] [Accepted: 10/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Cancer patients frequently utilize the emergency department (ED) for a variety of diagnoses both related to and unrelated to their cancer, yet ED outcomes for cancer patients are not well documented. This study sought to define risks and identify predictors for inpatient admission and hospital mortality among cancer patients presenting to the ED. PATIENTS AND METHODS We utilized the National Emergency Department Sample to identify patients with and without a diagnosis of cancer presenting to the ED between January 2016 and December 2018. We used multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models to assess the influence of cancer on outcomes of hospital admission after the ED visit and hospital mortality for the whole patient cohort and individual presenting diagnoses. RESULTS There were 340 million weighted ED visits, of which 8.3 million (2.3%) were associated with a cancer diagnosis. Compared to non-cancer patients, patients with cancer had an increased risk of inpatient admission (64.7% vs. 14.8%; p < 0.0001) and hospital mortality (4.6% vs. 0.5%; p < 0.0001). For each of the top 15 presenting diagnoses, cancer patients had increased risks of hospitalization (odds ratio [OR] range 2.0-13.2) or death (OR range 2.1-14.4). Although our dataset does not contain reliable estimation of stage, cancer site was the most robust individual predictor associated with the risk of hospitalization or death compared to other clinical or system-related factors. CONCLUSIONS Cancer patients in the ED have high risks for hospital admission and death when compared to patients without cancer. Cancer patients represent a distinct population and may benefit from cancer-specific risk stratification or focused interventions to improve outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander S Qian
- Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Edmund M Qiao
- Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Vinit Nalawade
- Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Rohith S Voora
- Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Nikhil V Kotha
- Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Christian Dameff
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Christopher J Coyne
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - James D Murphy
- Department of Radiation Medicine and Applied Sciences, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
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Yau FFF, Yang Y, Cheng CY, Li CJ, Wang SH, Chiu IM. Risk Factors for Early Return Visits to the Emergency Department in Patients Presenting with Nonspecific Abdominal Pain and the Use of Computed Tomography Scan. Healthcare (Basel) 2021; 9:healthcare9111470. [PMID: 34828517 PMCID: PMC8620581 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare9111470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2021] [Revised: 10/28/2021] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Over a quarter of patients presenting with abdominal pain at emergency departments (EDs) are diagnosed with nonspecific abdominal pain (NSAP) at discharge. This study investigated the risk factors associated with return ED visits in Taiwanese patients with NSAP after discharge. We divided patients into two groups: the study group comprising patients with ED revisits after the index ED visit, and the control group comprising patients without revisits. During the study period, 10,341 patients discharged with the impression of NSAP after ED management. A regression analysis found that older age (OR [95%CI]: 1.007 [1.003–1.011], p = 0.004), male sex (OR [95%CI]: 1.307 [1.036–1.650], p = 0.024), and use of NSAIDs (OR [95%CI]: 1.563 [1.219–2.003], p < 0.001) and opioids (OR [95%CI]: 2.213 [1.643–2.930], p < 0.001) during the index visit were associated with increased return ED visits. Computed tomography (CT) scans (OR [95%CI]: 0.605 [0.390–0.937], p = 0.021) were associated with decreased ED returns, especially for those who were older than 60, who had an underlying disease, or who required pain control during the index ED visit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fei-Fei Flora Yau
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 833, Taiwan; (F.-F.F.Y.); (Y.Y.); (C.-Y.C.); (C.-J.L.)
| | - Ying Yang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 833, Taiwan; (F.-F.F.Y.); (Y.Y.); (C.-Y.C.); (C.-J.L.)
| | - Chi-Yung Cheng
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 833, Taiwan; (F.-F.F.Y.); (Y.Y.); (C.-Y.C.); (C.-J.L.)
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan
| | - Chao-Jui Li
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 833, Taiwan; (F.-F.F.Y.); (Y.Y.); (C.-Y.C.); (C.-J.L.)
| | - Su-Hung Wang
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan 710, Taiwan;
| | - I-Min Chiu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung 833, Taiwan; (F.-F.F.Y.); (Y.Y.); (C.-Y.C.); (C.-J.L.)
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +886-978839856
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Tsai CL, Ling DA, Lu TC, Lin JCC, Huang CH, Fang CC. Inpatient Outcomes Following a Return Visit to the Emergency Department: A Nationwide Cohort Study. West J Emerg Med 2021; 22:1124-1130. [PMID: 34546889 PMCID: PMC8463058 DOI: 10.5811/westjem.2021.6.52212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Emergency department (ED) revisits are traditionally used to measure potential lapses in emergency care. However, recent studies on in-hospital outcomes following ED revisits have begun to challenge this notion. We aimed to examine inpatient outcomes and resource use among patients who were hospitalized following a return visit to the ED using a national database. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. One-third of ED visits from 2012–2013 were randomly selected and their subsequent hospitalizations included. We analyzed the inpatient outcomes (mortality and intensive care unit [ICU] admission) and resource use (length of stay [LOS] and costs). Comparisons were made between patients who were hospitalized after a return visit to the ED and those who were hospitalized during the index ED visit. Results Of the 3,019,416 index ED visits, 477,326 patients (16%) were directly admitted to the hospital. Among the 2,504,972 patients who were discharged during the index ED visit, 229,059 (9.1%) returned to the ED within three days. Of them, 37,118 (16%) were hospitalized. In multivariable analyses, the inpatient mortality rates and hospital LOS were similar between the two groups. Compared with the direct-admission group, the return-admission group had a lower ICU admission rate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72–0.84), and lower costs (adjusted difference, −5,198 New Taiwan dollars, 95% CI, −6,224 to −4,172). Conclusion Patients who were hospitalized after a return visit to the ED had a lower ICU admission rate and lower costs, compared to those who were directly admitted. Our findings suggest that ED revisits do not necessarily translate to poor initial care and that subsequent inpatient outcomes should also be considered for better assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chu-Lin Tsai
- National Taiwan University Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.,National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Dean-An Ling
- National Taiwan University Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Tsung-Chien Lu
- National Taiwan University Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.,National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Jasper Chia-Cheng Lin
- National Taiwan University Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.,National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Hua Huang
- National Taiwan University Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.,National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Cheng-Chung Fang
- National Taiwan University Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan.,National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
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Lin CF, Huang YS, Tsai MT, Wu KH, Lin CF, Chiu IM. In-Hospital Outcomes in Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit after a Return Visit to the Emergency Department. Healthcare (Basel) 2021; 9:healthcare9040431. [PMID: 33917232 PMCID: PMC8067995 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare9040431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2021] [Revised: 04/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Intensive care unit (ICU) admission following a short-term emergency department (ED) revisit has been considered a particularly undesirable outcome among return-visit patients, although their in-hospital prognosis has not been discussed. We aimed to compare clinical outcomes between adult patients admitted to the ICU after unscheduled ED revisits and those admitted during index ED visits. Method: This retrospective study was conducted at two tertiary medical centers in Taiwan from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017. All adult non-trauma patients admitted to the ICU directly via the ED during the study period were included and divided into two comparison groups: patients admitted to the ICU during index ED visits and those admitted to the ICU during return ED visits. The outcomes of interest included in-hospital mortality, mechanical ventilation (MV) support, profound shock, hospital length of stay (HLOS), and total medical cost. Results: Altogether, 12,075 patients with a mean (standard deviation) age of 64.6 (15.7) years were included. Among these, 5.3% were admitted to the ICU following a return ED visit within 14 days and 3.1% were admitted following a return ED visit within 7 days. After adjusting for confounding factors for multivariate regression analysis, ICU admission following an ED revisit within 14 days was not associated with an increased mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89 to 1.32), MV support (aOR: 1.06, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.26), profound shock (aOR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.18), prolonged HLOS (difference: 0.04 days, 95% CI: −1.02 to 1.09), and increased total medical cost (difference: USD 361, 95% CI: −303 to 1025). Similar results were observed after the regression analysis in patients that had a 7-day return visit. Conclusion: ICU admission following a return ED visit was not associated with major in-hospital outcomes including mortality, MV support, shock, increased HLOS, or medical cost. Although ICU admissions following ED revisits are considered serious adverse events, they may not indicate poor prognosis in ED practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chun-Fu Lin
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 123, Dapi Rd. Niaosong Dist., Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-F.L.); (Y.-S.H.); (M.-T.T.); (K.-H.W.); (C.-F.L.)
| | - Yi-Syun Huang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 123, Dapi Rd. Niaosong Dist., Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-F.L.); (Y.-S.H.); (M.-T.T.); (K.-H.W.); (C.-F.L.)
| | - Ming-Ta Tsai
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 123, Dapi Rd. Niaosong Dist., Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-F.L.); (Y.-S.H.); (M.-T.T.); (K.-H.W.); (C.-F.L.)
| | - Kuan-Han Wu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 123, Dapi Rd. Niaosong Dist., Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-F.L.); (Y.-S.H.); (M.-T.T.); (K.-H.W.); (C.-F.L.)
| | - Chien-Fu Lin
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 123, Dapi Rd. Niaosong Dist., Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-F.L.); (Y.-S.H.); (M.-T.T.); (K.-H.W.); (C.-F.L.)
| | - I-Min Chiu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 123, Dapi Rd. Niaosong Dist., Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-F.L.); (Y.-S.H.); (M.-T.T.); (K.-H.W.); (C.-F.L.)
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Sun Yet-Sen University, Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan
- Correspondence: or
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Liu SW. Risk factors of admission in 72-h return visits to emergency department. Tzu Chi Med J 2020; 33:169-174. [PMID: 33912415 PMCID: PMC8059464 DOI: 10.4103/tcmj.tcmj_155_20] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2020] [Revised: 07/30/2020] [Accepted: 08/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective: Return visit to emergency department (ED) is a common phenomenon and has been a clinical indicator of quality of care in ED. Most of previous articles focused on the characteristics of the patients returning within 72 h after ED discharge, while those on subsequent admission are numbered. This study's purpose is to identify risk factors for admission among 72-h return visit in the ED adult population. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at a medical center in Eastern Taiwan. The study period was from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2013. We excluded patients who left against medical advice or without being seen, who was admitted or transferred at the index ED visit, whose medical records were incomplete, and whose age was below 18 years old. Significant variables were selected based on univariate analysis and later entered into multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for 72-h return admission. Results: We identified 1575 eligible visits, and there were 1,119 visits entering into the final analysis. Male gender (odds ratio [OR] = 1.44), ambulance-transport at return visit (OR = 3.68), senior staff (OR = 1.52), work-up (OR = 3.03), and longer length of stay (LOS) were associated with higher risks of admission among ED 72-h return visits. Age, comorbidity, mode of transport at index visit, consultation, triage, type of illness, outpatient department visit between ED visits, and interval between index and return visits were not significantly associated with return admission. Conclusion: Gender, mode of transportation, staff experience, check-up, and LOS are associated with ED return admission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sung-Wei Liu
- Department of Emergency, Hualien Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation and Tzu Chi University, Hualien, Taiwan.,Institute of Medical Sciences, Tzu Chi University, Hualien, Taiwan
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Kim DU, Park YS, Park JM, Brown NJ, Chu K, Lee JH, Kim JH, Kim MJ. Influence of Overcrowding in the Emergency Department on Return Visit within 72 Hours. J Clin Med 2020; 9:jcm9051406. [PMID: 32397560 PMCID: PMC7290478 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9051406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Revised: 05/05/2020] [Accepted: 05/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
This study was conducted to determine whether overcrowding in the emergency department (ED) affects the occurrence of a return visit (RV) within 72 h. The crowding indicator of index visit was the average number of total patients, patients under observation, and boarding patients during the first 1 and 4 h from ED arrival time and the last 1 h before ED departure. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine whether each indicator affects the occurrence of RV and post-RV admission. Of the 87,360 discharged patients, 3743 (4.3%) returned to the ED within 72 h. Of the crowding indicators pertaining to total patients, the last 1 h significantly affected decrease in RV (p = 0.0046). Boarding patients were found to increase RV occurrence during the first 1 h (p = 0.0146) and 4 h (p = 0.0326). Crowding indicators that increased the likelihood of admission post-RV were total number of patients during the first 1 h (p = 0.0166) and 4 h (p = 0.0335) and evaluating patients during the first 1 h (p = 0.0059). Overcrowding in the ED increased the incidence of RV and likelihood of post-RV admission. However, overcrowding at the time of ED departure was related to reduced RV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dong-uk Kim
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Korea; (D.-u.K.); (Y.S.P.); (J.H.L.); (J.H.K.)
| | - Yoo Seok Park
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Korea; (D.-u.K.); (Y.S.P.); (J.H.L.); (J.H.K.)
| | - Joon Min Park
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Inje University Ilsan Paik Hospital, 170 Juhwa-ro, Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do 10380, Korea;
| | - Nathan J. Brown
- Emergency and Trauma Centre, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, Butterfield Street, Herston QLD 4029, Australia; (N.J.B.); (K.C.)
- Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Kevin Chu
- Emergency and Trauma Centre, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, Butterfield Street, Herston QLD 4029, Australia; (N.J.B.); (K.C.)
- Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Ji Hwan Lee
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Korea; (D.-u.K.); (Y.S.P.); (J.H.L.); (J.H.K.)
| | - Ji Hoon Kim
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Korea; (D.-u.K.); (Y.S.P.); (J.H.L.); (J.H.K.)
| | - Min Joung Kim
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Korea; (D.-u.K.); (Y.S.P.); (J.H.L.); (J.H.K.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +82-2-2228-2460; Fax: +82-2-2227-7908
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Hiti EA, Tamim H, Makki M, Geha M, Kaddoura R, Obermeyer Z. Characteristics and determinants of high-risk unscheduled return visits to the emergency department. Emerg Med J 2019; 37:79-84. [PMID: 31806725 PMCID: PMC7027026 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2018-208343] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2018] [Revised: 10/16/2019] [Accepted: 11/21/2019] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Background High-risk unscheduled return visits (HRURVs), defined as return visits within 72 hours that require admission or die in the emergency department (ED) on representation, are a key quality metric in the ED. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence and describe the characteristics and predictors of HRURVs to the ED. Methods Case–control study, conducted between 1 November 2014 and 31 October 2015. Cases included all HRURVs over the age of 18 that presented to the ED. Controls were selected from patients who were discharged from the ED during the study period and did not return in the next 72 hours. Controls were matched to cases based on gender, age (±5 years) and date of presentation. Results Out of 38 886 ED visits during the study period, 271 are HRURVs, giving an incidence of HRURV of 0.70% (95% CI 0.62% to 0.78%). Our final analysis includes 270 HRURV cases and 270 controls, with an in-ED mortality rate of 0.7%, intensive care unit admission of 11.1% and need for surgical intervention of 22.2%. After adjusting for other factors, HRURV cases are more likely to be discharged with a diagnosis related to digestive system or infectious disease (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.65 and OR 2.81, 95% CI 1.05 to 7.51, respectively). Furthermore, presentation to the ED during off-hours is a significant predictor of HRURV (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.43) as is the presence of a handover during the patient visit (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.75). Conclusion HRURV is an important key quality outcome metric that reflects a subgroup of ED patients with specific characteristics and predictors. Efforts to reduce this HRURV rate should focus on interventions targeting patients discharged with digestive system, kidney and urinary tract and infectious diseases diagnosis as well as exploring the role of handover tools in reducing HRURVs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eveline A Hiti
- Emergency Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Hani Tamim
- Internal Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Maha Makki
- Emergency Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Mirabelle Geha
- Emergency Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Rima Kaddoura
- Emergency Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Ziad Obermeyer
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Brigham & Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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