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Shi JT, Chen N, Xu J, Goyal H, Wu ZQ, Zhang JX, Xu HG. Diagnostic Accuracy of Fecal Calprotectin for Predicting Relapse in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Meta-Analysis. J Clin Med 2023; 12:jcm12031206. [PMID: 36769850 PMCID: PMC9917450 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12031206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2023] [Revised: 01/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Fecal calprotectin (FC) levels correlate with the disease activity of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD); however, the utility of FC in predicting IBD relapse remains to be determined. We aim to evaluate the efficacy of fecal calprotectin in predicting the relapse of inflammatory bowel disease. We searched Pubmed (MEDLINE), Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane library databases up to 7 July 2021. Our study estimated the pooled sensitivity and specificity, summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve, and the optimal cut-off value for predicting IBD relapse using a multiple threshold model. A total of 24 prospective studies were included in the meta-analysis. The optimal FC cut-off value was 152 μg/g. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of FC was 0.720 (0.528 to 0.856) and 0.740 (0.618 to 0.834), respectively. FC is a useful, non-invasive, and inexpensive biomarker for the early prediction of IBD relapse. An FC value of 152 μg/g is an ideal threshold to identify patients with a high relapse probability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jin-Tong Shi
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China
| | - Nuo Chen
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China
| | - Jia Xu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China
| | - Hemant Goyal
- Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition, University of Texas Health Sciences Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA
- Correspondence: (H.G.); (H.-G.X.)
| | - Zhi-Qi Wu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China
| | - Jie-Xin Zhang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China
| | - Hua-Guo Xu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China
- Correspondence: (H.G.); (H.-G.X.)
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Narula N, Wong ECL, Dulai PS, Marshall JK, Colombel JF, Reinisch W. Week 6 Calprotectin Best Predicts Likelihood of Long-term Endoscopic Healing in Crohn's Disease: A Post-hoc Analysis of the UNITI/IM-UNITI Trials. J Crohns Colitis 2021; 15:462-470. [PMID: 32931556 DOI: 10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjaa189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES There is need for biomarkers as predictors of outcome of medical treatment in Crohn's disease. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of faecal calprotectin for short- and long-term clinical and endoscopic outcomes. METHODS This post-hoc analysis of the UNITI/IM-UNITI studies [NCT01369329, NCT01369342, and NCT01369355; YODA #2019-4026] included 677 patients to evaluate the relationship of Week 6 calprotectin cut-offs and changes from baseline assessments in calprotectin for prediction of outcomes at Weeks 8, 32, and 52, using receiver operating characteristic curves with comparisons of areas under the curve [AUC]. The relationship between clinical and biomarker assessments at Week 6 and endoscopic remission [ER] at Week 52 was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression models adjusted for confounders. RESULTS A Week 6 calprotectin <250 mg/kg demonstrated a significant ability to predict Week 52 ER (AUC 0.709, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.566-0.852, p = 0.014) with fair accuracy, and performed better than other calprotectin cut-offs and deltas from baseline for prediction of Week 52 ER. When adjusted for covariates, patients with a Week 6 faecal calprotectin <250 mg/kg had 3.48 times [95% CI 1.31-9.28, p = 0.013] increased odds of Week 52 ER. No other Week 6 clinical assessment [clinical remission or clinical response] or biomarker [CRP <5 or drug level] had an association with Week 52 ER. CONCLUSIONS In summary, the results of this post-hoc analysis suggest that Week 6 calprotectin levels < 250 mg/kg can be predictive of future endoscopic healing and may be more informative than clinical symptom improvement. PODCAST This article has an associated podcast which can be accessed at https://academic.oup.com/ecco-jcc/pages/podcast.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neeraj Narula
- Department of Medicine [Division of Gastroenterology] and Farncombe Family Digestive Health Research Institute, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Emily C L Wong
- Department of Medicine [Division of Gastroenterology] and Farncombe Family Digestive Health Research Institute, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Parambir S Dulai
- Division of Gastroenterology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - John K Marshall
- Department of Medicine [Division of Gastroenterology] and Farncombe Family Digestive Health Research Institute, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Jean-Frederic Colombel
- Division of Gastroenterology; Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Walter Reinisch
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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Khaki-Khatibi F, Qujeq D, Kashifard M, Moein S, Maniati M, Vaghari-Tabari M. Calprotectin in inflammatory bowel disease. Clin Chim Acta 2020; 510:556-565. [PMID: 32818491 PMCID: PMC7431395 DOI: 10.1016/j.cca.2020.08.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Revised: 08/11/2020] [Accepted: 08/13/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
The term IBD is usually used for referring to a group of inflammatory gastro-intestinal diseases (mainly Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis). Accordingly, IBD arises as a result of inappropriate immune response to intestinal commensal organisms among genetically susceptible individuals. Performing colonoscopy and histopathologic evaluation on an inflamed bowel biopsy specimen are currently considered as gold standards for diagnosis and management of IBD. Correspondingly, these techniques are known to be invasive and costly. In recent decades, fecal calprotectin, as a biomarker, has received much attention for the diagnosis and non-invasive management of IBD. Up to now, many studies have investigated the efficacy of fecal calprotectin in the areas of IBD differentiation from IBS, prediction of endoscopic and histologic activities of IBD and prediction of disease recurrence. Although some of these studies have reported promising results, some others have shown significant limitations. Therefore, in this paper, we reviewed the most interesting ones of these studies after a brief discussion of the laboratory measurement of fecal calprotectin. Moreover, we attempted to provide an answer for the question of whether fecal-calprotectin could be considered as a potential surrogate marker for colonoscopy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fatemeh Khaki-Khatibi
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry and Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Durdi Qujeq
- Cellular and Molecular Biology Research Center (CMBRC), Health Research Institute, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran,Department of Clinical Biochemistry, School of Medicine, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Mehrdad Kashifard
- Department of Internal Medicine, Gastroenterology Division, Ayatollah Rouhani Hospital, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
| | - Soheila Moein
- Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Medicine, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran
| | - Mahmood Maniati
- English Department, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
| | - Mostafa Vaghari-Tabari
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry and Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran; Liver and Gastrointestinal Diseases Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran.
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Tavakoli A, Shirzad M, Taghavi A, Fattahi M, Ahmadian-Attari M, Mohammad Taghizadeh L, Rostami Chaijan M, Sedigh Rahimabadi M, Akrami R, Pasalar M. Efficacy of Rose Oil Soft Capsules on Clinical Outcomes in Ulcerative Colitis: A Pilot Randomized, Double-Blinded, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial. Galen Med J 2019; 8:e1307. [PMID: 34466491 PMCID: PMC8344031 DOI: 10.31661/gmj.v8i0.1307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2018] [Revised: 09/01/2018] [Accepted: 02/05/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Ulcerative colitis is the most common form of inflammatory bowel disease worldwide, which presents with superficial ulcers in the rectum and colon. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of rose oil soft capsules over placebo on the clinical outcomes in moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. Materials and Methods This study was a pilot randomized, double-blind clinical trial, and the 40 patients were assigned into rose oil and placebo groups (n=20 per group). All patients were instructed to use their prescribed two soft capsules three times daily for two months. The clinical symptoms, quality of life the patients, and calprotectin level were evaluated via partial Mayo clinic score, irritable bowel disease questionnaire (IBDQ-9), and calprotectin kit as primary outcome measures. Results The mean age of the participants was 41±10 years. Most of them (53.6%) were male, and the remaining (46.4%) were female. The demographic and baseline data showed no differences between the two groups. Partial Mayo clinic scores decreased in both groups after the treatment, but the difference between the rose oil and placebo groups was not statistically significant (P=0.99). IBDQ-9 score also increased in both interventions before and after the treatment (P=0.012), though the differences between these two groups were not statistically significant (P=0.61). There were no significant differences between the two study groups either in terms of calprotectin level (P=0.219). Conclusion This study showed that rose oil might improve ulcerative colitis clinical outcomes, but for a better evaluation, it is imperative to conduct experiments with a large sample size and longer follow-up observation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Tavakoli
- Research Center for Traditional Medicine and History of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
- Department of Traditional Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Meysam Shirzad
- Department of Persian Medicine, School of Persian Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Alireza Taghavi
- Gastroenterohepatology Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Mohammadreza Fattahi
- Gastroenterohepatology Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Mohammadmahdi Ahmadian-Attari
- Evidence-based Phytotherapy and Complementary Medicine Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | | | - Mahsa Rostami Chaijan
- Research Center for Traditional Medicine and History of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
- Department of Traditional Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Masih Sedigh Rahimabadi
- Department of Persian Medicine, Fasa University of Medical Sciences, Fasa, Iran
- Essence of Parsiyan Wisdom Institute, Traditional Medicine and Medicinal Plant Incubator, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Rahimeh Akrami
- Research Center for Traditional Medicine and History of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
- Department of Traditional Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Mehdi Pasalar
- Research Center for Traditional Medicine and History of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
- Essence of Parsiyan Wisdom Institute, Traditional Medicine and Medicinal Plant Incubator, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
- Correspondence to: Mehdi Pasalar, Research Center for Traditional Medicine and History of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran Telephone Number: 07132338476 Email Address:
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Li J, Zhao X, Li X, Lu M, Zhang H. Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis: Fecal Calprotectin as a Surrogate Marker for Predicting Relapse in Adults with Ulcerative Colitis. Mediators Inflamm 2019; 2019:2136501. [PMID: 31275056 PMCID: PMC6558608 DOI: 10.1155/2019/2136501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2019] [Accepted: 05/05/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The clinical course of ulcerative colitis (UC) is featured by remission and relapse, which remains unpredictable. Recent studies revealed that fecal calprotectin (FC) could predict clinical relapse for UC patients in remission, which has not yet been well accepted. To detect the predictive value of FC for clinical relapse in adult UC patients based on updated literature, we carried out a comprehensive electronic search of PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify all eligible studies. Diagnostic accuracy including pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was calculated using a random effects model. Heterogeneity across studies was assessed by the I 2 metric. Sources of heterogeneity were detected using subgroup analysis. Metaregression was used to test potential factors correlated to DOR. Publication bias was assessed using Deek's funnel plots. In our study, 14 articles enrolling a total of 1110 participants were finally included, and all articles underwent a quality assessment. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, and NLR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 0.75 (95% CI: 0.70-0.79), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.74-0.80), 3.45 (95% CI: 2.31-5.14), and 0.37 (95% CI: 0.28-0.49) respectively. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve was 0.82, and the diagnostic odds ratio was 10.54 (95% CI: 6.16-18.02). Our study suggested that FC is useful in predicting clinical relapse for adult UC patients in remission as a simple and noninvasive marker.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiajia Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210029, China
| | - Xiaojing Zhao
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210029, China
| | - Xueting Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210029, China
| | - Meijiao Lu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210029, China
| | - Hongjie Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210029, China
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Turner D, Ruemmele FM, Orlanski-Meyer E, Griffiths AM, de Carpi JM, Bronsky J, Veres G, Aloi M, Strisciuglio C, Braegger CP, Assa A, Romano C, Hussey S, Stanton M, Pakarinen M, de Ridder L, Katsanos K, Croft N, Navas-López V, Wilson DC, Lawrence S, Russell RK. Management of Paediatric Ulcerative Colitis, Part 1: Ambulatory Care-An Evidence-based Guideline From European Crohn's and Colitis Organization and European Society of Paediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition. J Pediatr Gastroenterol Nutr 2018; 67:257-291. [PMID: 30044357 DOI: 10.1097/mpg.0000000000002035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 255] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The contemporary management of ambulatory ulcerative colitis (UC) continues to be challenging with ∼20% of children needing a colectomy within childhood years. We thus aimed to standardize daily treatment of pediatric UC and inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD)-unclassified through detailed recommendations and practice points. METHODS These guidelines are a joint effort of the European Crohn's and Colitis Organization (ECCO) and the Paediatric IBD Porto group of European Society of Paediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition (ESPGHAN). An extensive literature search with subsequent evidence appraisal using robust methodology was performed before 2 face-to-face meetings. All 40 included recommendations and 86 practice points were endorsed by 43 experts in Paediatric IBD with at least an 88% consensus rate. RESULTS These guidelines discuss how to optimize the use of mesalamine (including topical), systemic and locally active steroids, thiopurines and, for more severe disease, biologics. The use of other emerging therapies and the role of surgery are also covered. Algorithms are provided to aid therapeutic decision-making based on clinical assessment and the Paediatric UC Activity Index (PUCAI). Advice on contemporary therapeutic targets incorporating the use of calprotectin and the role of therapeutic drug monitoring are presented, as well as other management considerations around pouchitis, extraintestinal manifestations, nutrition, growth, psychology, and transition. A brief section on disease classification using the PIBD-classes criteria and IBD-unclassified is also part of these guidelines. CONCLUSIONS These guidelines provide a guide to clinicians managing children with UC and IBD-unclassified management to provide modern management strategies while maintaining vigilance around appropriate outcomes and safety issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dan Turner
- Shaare Zedek Medical Center, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Frank M Ruemmele
- Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, APHP, Hôpital Necker Enfants Malades, Paris, France
| | | | - Anne M Griffiths
- The Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | | | - Jiri Bronsky
- Department of Paediatrics, University Hospital Motol, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Gabor Veres
- 1st Department of Pediatrics, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Marina Aloi
- Pediatric Gastroenterology and Liver Unit, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Caterina Strisciuglio
- Department of Woman, Child and General and Specialistic Surgery, University of Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli," Napoli, Italy
| | | | - Amit Assa
- Schneider Children's Hospital, Petach Tikva, Affiliated to the Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Claudio Romano
- Pediatric Department, University of Messina, Messina, Italy
| | - Séamus Hussey
- National Children's Research Centre, Royal College of Surgeons of Ireland and University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Mikko Pakarinen
- Helsinki University Children's Hospital, Department of Pediatric Surgery, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Lissy de Ridder
- Erasmus MC-Sophia Children's Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Nick Croft
- Barts and the London School of Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Victor Navas-López
- Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition Unit. Hospital Materno, IBIMA, Málaga, Spain
| | - David C Wilson
- Child Life and Health, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Sally Lawrence
- BC Children's Hospital, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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MOHAMMAD ALI GOL S, MIRJALALI H, ASADZADEH AGHDAEI H, ZALI MR. Can Giardia Infection Impair the Diagnostic Level of Fecal Calprotectin in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease? A Case Report. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PARASITOLOGY 2018; 13:505-509. [PMID: 30483345 PMCID: PMC6243165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is attributed to complex conditions of gastrointestinal tract that is frequently reported all over the world. Fecal calprotectin evaluation is described as a primary tool to screen IBD patients. There are reports showing the confounding role of some microbial agents in diagnostic levels of calprotectin. A 32-yr-old woman with symptoms like IBD/IBS (irritable bowel syndrome); admitted to IBD Clinic of Behbood Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Jan 2017 for evaluation of the level of fecal calprotectin. In spite of high level of calprotectin, trophozoite of Giardia intestinalis was observed in direct examination of stool sample. Microbial pathogens can lead to false elevation of fecal calprotectin and misdiagnosis of gastrointestinal patients suspected to IBD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara MOHAMMAD ALI GOL
- Behbood Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hamed MIRJALALI
- Foodborne and Waterborne Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran,Correspondence
| | - Hamid ASADZADEH AGHDAEI
- Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Reza ZALI
- Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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Hosseini SV, Taghavi SA, Jafari P, Rezaianzadeh A, Moini M, Mehrabi M, Sepehrimanesh M, Safarpour AR. Incidence of Ulcerative Colitis Relapse: A Prospective Cohort Study in Southern Iran. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2016. [DOI: 10.17795/acr-34565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
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Hosseini SV, Safarpour AR, Taghavi SA. Developing a novel risk-scoring system for predicting relapse in patients with ulcerative colitis: A prospective cohort study. Pak J Med Sci 2016; 31:1511-6. [PMID: 26870126 PMCID: PMC4744311 DOI: 10.12669/pjms.316.8811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Ulcerative Colitis (UC) follows a natural clinical course of relapses and remissions. The aim of this study was to construct a risk-scoring formula in order to enable predicting relapses in patients with UC. METHODS From October 2012 to October 2013, 157 patients from Shiraz, southern Iran who were diagnosed with UC and in remission were enrolled. At 3-month intervals, multiple risk factors of hemoglobin, complete blood counts, serum iron and albumin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and faecal calprotectin levels, sex, age, cigarette smoking, positive family history of inflammatory bowel diseases, past history of appendectomy, extra-intestinal accompanying diseases, extent of disease at the beginning of study, number of previous relapses, duration of disease and duration of remission before the study were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were applied to fit the final model. The new risk-scoring system accuracy was assessed using receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS Seventy four patients (48.1%) experienced a relapse. Multivariate analysis revealed that relapses could significantly be predicted by the level of fecal calprotectin (OR=8.1), age (OR=9.2), the Seo activity index (OR=52.7), and the number of previous relapses (OR=4.2). The risk scoring formula was developed using the regression coefficient values of the aforementioned variables. CONCLUSION Four predictor variables were significant in the final model and were used in our risk-scoring formula. It is recommended that patients who achieve high scores are diligently observed, treated, and followed up.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seyed Vahid Hosseini
- Seyed Vahid Hosseini, Colorectal Research Center, Faghihi Hospital, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Ali Reza Safarpour
- Ali Reza Safarpour, Gastroenterohepatology Research Center, Namazi Hospital, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
| | - Seyed Alireza Taghavi
- Seyed Alireza Taghavi, Gastroenterohepatology Research Center, Namazi Hospital, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
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