[Predictors of extubation failure and reintubation in newborn infants subjected to mechanical ventilation]

Using machine-learning models to predict extubation failure in neonates with bronchopulmonary dysplasia

AIM

To develop a decision-support tool for predicting extubation failure (EF) in neonates with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) using a set of machine-learning algorithms.

METHODS

A dataset of 284 BPD neonates on mechanical ventilation was used to develop predictive models via machine-learning algorithms, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest, support vector machine, naïve Bayes, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbor. The top three models were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and their performance was tested by decision curve analysis (DCA). Confusion matrix was used to show the high performance of the best model. The importance matrix plot and SHapley Additive exPlanations values were calculated to evaluate the feature importance and visualize the results. The nomogram and clinical impact curves were used to validate the final model.

RESULTS

According to the AUC values and DCA results, the XGboost model performed best (AUC = 0.873, sensitivity = 0.896, specificity = 0.838). The nomogram and clinical impact curve verified that the XGBoost model possessed a significant predictive value. The following were predictive factors for EF: pO2, hemoglobin, mechanical ventilation (MV) rate, pH, Apgar score at 5 min, FiO2, C-reactive protein, Apgar score at 1 min, red blood cell count, PIP, gestational age, highest FiO2 at the first 24 h, heart rate, birth weight, pCO2. Further, pO2, hemoglobin, and MV rate were the three most important factors for predicting EF.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study indicated that the XGBoost model was significant in predicting EF in BPD neonates with mechanical ventilation, which is helpful in determining the right extubation time among neonates with BPD to reduce the occurrence of complications.

Predictive factors for extubation success in very low and extremely low birth weight preterm infants

Background

Although invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) has contributed to the survival of preterm infants with extremely low birth weight (ELBW), it is also associated with unsatisfactory clinical outcomes when used for prolonged periods. This study aimed to identify factors that may be decisive for extubation success in very low birth weight (VLBW) and extremely low birth weight (ELBW) preterm infants.

Methods

The cohort study included preterm infants with gestational age (GA) <36 weeks, birth weight (BW) <1500 grams who underwent IMV, born between 2015 and 2018. The infants were allocated into two groups: extubation success (SG) or failure (FG). A stepwise logistic regression model was created to determine variables associated with successful extubation.

Results

Eighty-three preterm infants were included. GA and post-extubation arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2) were predictive of extubation success. Infants from FG had lower GA and BW, while those from SG had higher weight at extubation and lower post-extubation PaCO2.

Discussion

Although we found post-extubation PaCO2 as an extubation success predictor, which is a variable representative of the moment after the primary outcome, this does not diminish its clinical relevance since extubation does not implicate in ET removal only; it also involves all the aspects that take place within a specified period (72 hours) after the planned event.

Conclusion

GA and post-extubation PaCO2 were predictors for extubation success in VLBW and ELBW preterm infants. Infants who experienced extubation failure had lower birth weight and higher FiO2 prior to extubation.

Predictors of extubation outcomes among extremely and very preterm infants: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the clinical or sociodemographic predictors for both successful and failed extubation among Chinese extremely and very preterm infants METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was carried out among extremely and very preterm infants born at less than 32 weeks of gestational age (GA).

RESULTS

Compared with the infants who experienced extubation failure, the successful infants had higher birth weight (OR 0.997; CI 0.996-0.998), higher GA (OR 0.582; 95% CI 0.499-0.678), a caesarean section delivery (OR 0.598; 95% CI 0.380-0.939), a higher five-minute Apgar score (OR 0.501; 95% CI 0.257-0.977), and a higher pH prior to extubation (OR 0.008; 95% CI 0.001-0.058). Failed extubation was associated with older mothers (OR 1.055; 95% CI 1.013-1.099), infants intubated in the delivery room (OR 2.820; 95% CI 1.742-4.563), a higher fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂) prior to extubation (OR 5.246; 95% CI 2.540-10.835), higher partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO₂) prior to extubation (OR 7.820; 95% CI 3.725-16.420), and higher amounts of lactic acid (OR 1.478;95% CI 1.063-2.056).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher GA, higher pre-extubation pH, lower pre-extubation FiO₂ and PCO, and lower age at extubation are significant predictors of successful extubation among extremely and very preterm infants.

Effectiveness and safety of early versus late caffeine therapy in managing apnoea of prematurity among preterm infants: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Early administration of intravenous (IV) caffeine (initiation within 2 days of life) is an effective treatment strategy for the management of apnoea of prematurity among infants. However, the safety and effectiveness of early administration of oral caffeine treatment is not be fully established.

AIM

We aimed to compare the effectiveness and safety of early versus late caffeine therapy on preterm infants' clinical outcomes.

METHOD

A retrospective matched cohort study was conducted using data of patients admitted to neonatal intensive care units of two tertiary care hospitals between January 2016 and December 2018. The clinical outcomes and mortality risk between early caffeine (initiation within 2 days of life) and late caffeine (initiation ≥ 3 days of life) were compared.

RESULTS

Ninety-five pairs matched based on gestational age were included in the study. Compared to late initiation, preterm infants with early caffeine therapy had: a shorter duration of non-invasive mechanical ventilation (median 5 days vs. 12 days; p < 0.001); shorter length of hospital stay (median 26 days vs. 44 days; p  < 0.001); shorter duration to achieve full enteral feeding (median 5 days vs. 11 days; p < 0.001); and lower frequency of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) (4.5% vs. 12.9%; p = 0.045). They also had a reduced risk of osteopenia of prematurity (OP) (OR 0.209; 95% CI 0.085-0.509; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Early oral caffeine therapy can potentially improve respiratory outcomes among infants with apnoea of prematurity. However, an increase in mortality associated with early caffeine therapy requires further investigation.

Risk Factors of Extubation Failure in Intubated Preterm Infants at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Oman

Objectives

This study aimed to determine extubation failure (EF) rate among intubated preterm infants (<37 weeks gestational age [GA]) admitted to a tertiary care neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) in Oman and identify the risk factors associated with EF.

Methods

This retrospective study included all intubated preterm infants (<37 weeks GA) admitted to the NICU at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH) from January 2013 to December 2017. EF was defined as reintubation within seven days of planned extubation. Demographics, ventilation parameters, blood gas values and other possible risk factors of EF were collected. Statistical analysis included comparisons between EF and extubation success (ES) groups and a binary logistic regression analysis.

Results

A total of 190 preterm infants were intubated during the study period with 140 eligible for analysis. A total of 106 infants (75.7%) were successfully extubated while 34 (24.3%) failed extubation. GA <28 weeks (P = 0.029), lower 1-minute Apgar score (P = 0.023) and patent ductus arteriosus diagnosis (P = 0.018) were significantly associated with EF. After the multivariate analysis, only GA <28 weeks predicted EF with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.621 (95% confidence interval: 1.118 - 6.146).

Conclusion

EF rate in preterm infants admitted at the NICU of SQUH was within international rates. GA <28 weeks was the only predictor of the identified extubation failure. Neonatal practitioners need to seriously consider extreme prematurity in the extubation process and consider implementing strategies to decrease extubation failure in this group of fragile infants.

The Application of Pulmonary Ultrasound in Neonatal Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia

This study explored the application value of lung ultrasound (LUS) in neonatal ventilator-associated pneumonia (NVAP). In this study, 122 newborns suspected of NVAP were treated in the NICU of Liaocheng People's Hospital between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021. Of these, 115 were clinically diagnosed with NVAP. The diagnostic value of LUS for NVAP was determined by comparing the different signs of LUS and chest X-ray (CXR). The confirmed cases were divided into the failure and success groups according to the first ventilator weaning test results. The consistency between the results of LUS and CXR and the actual test results was compared between the two groups. Before treatment, the LUS findings of the confirmed cases showed a lung consolidation with air bronchogram sign (111/115), alveolar-interstitial syndrome (113/115), pleural effusion (12/115), pleural line abnormalities (114/115), and lung pulse (15/115). CXR showed 109 cases of pneumonia. Taking the clinical diagnosis of VAP as the gold standard, the lung consolidation with air bronchogram sign on LUS had a higher sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for the diagnosis of NVAP than those of other LUS and CXR findings and showed better consistency with the clinical diagnosis (AUC = 0.983, kappa value = 0.761, p < 0.05). After treatment, the 115 cases were divided into two groups according to the results of the first weaning from ventilation: the failed group (19 cases) and the successful group (96 cases). The lung consolidation with air bronchogram sign was used as the positive diagnostic standard of ultrasound. The sensitivity and specificity of LUS (94.7 and 89.6%, respectively) in evaluating the outcome of weaning from the ventilator of pneumonia were higher than those of CXR (73.7 and 84.4%, respectively). Additionally, the consistency of the LUS findings with the weaning results was higher than that of CXR (AUC = 0.922, kappa value = 0.709, p < 0.05). Therefore, compared with CXR, LUS has a higher value in diagnosing NVAP and can better predict the results of the ventilator off-line test. LUS can replace CXR as the first imaging examination for NVAP.

Cost-Utility of Sildenafil for Persistent Pulmonary Hypertension of the Newborn

OBJECTIVE

While advanced therapies for severe persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) such as inhaled nitric oxide (iNO) and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are standard treatments in high-income countries, these therapies are often unavailable in resource-limited settings such as middle-income countries. However, there are small clinical trials illustrating the efficacy of sildenafil at reducing mortality in PPHN. This analysis sought to determine the cost-utility of enteral sildenafil for the treatment of severe PPHN.

STUDY DESIGN

A Markov-state transition model was constructed for the two clinical approaches to compare costs, clinical outcomes, and quality of life: (1) "conventional," (2) "sildenafil." The impact of sildenafil was modeled as a relative risk modifier of the conventional strategy's mortality risk. Transitional probabilities, costs, and utility metrics were extracted from the literature. Sensitivity analyses for each model input as well as 100-patient Monte Carlo simulations were used to test the durability of the model conclusion.

RESULTS

The sildenafil strategy was cost-effective for upper but not lower middle-income countries with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $2,339 per quality-adjusted life year. This conclusion was durable across a wide-range of model assumptions; the sildenafil strategy only failed to meet criteria for cost-effectiveness when sildenafil therapy had a mortality relative risk efficacy of >0.89, if life expectancy in that country is <40 years, or if the lifetime forecasted costs of a survivor's life was quite high.

CONCLUSION

Enteral sildenafil is a cost-effective intervention for severe PPHN for upper middle-income countries where ECMO and iNO are not available.

KEY POINTS

· PPHN is a common life-threatening condition in newborns.. · Sildenafil improves survival of PPHN.. · Sildenafil is cost-effective for upper-middle income countries..

Reintubation rates after extubation to different non-invasive ventilation modes in preterm infants

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory Distress Syndrome (RDS) is a common cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality in premature newborns. In this study, we aim to compare the reintubation rate in preterm babies with RDS who were extubated to Nasal Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (NCPAP) versus those extubated to Nasal Intermittent Positive Pressure Ventilation (NIPPV).

METHODS

This is a retrospective study conducted in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) of Women's Wellness and Research Center (WWRC), Doha, Qatar. The medical files (n = 220) of ventilated preterm infants with gestational age ranging between 28 weeks 0 days and 36 weeks + 6 days gestation and extubated to non-invasive respiratory support (whether NCPAP, NIPPV, or Nasal Cannula) during the period from January 2016 to December 2017 were reviewed.

RESULTS

From the study group of 220 babies, n = 97 (44%) babies were extubated to CPAP, n = 77 (35%) were extubated to NIPPV, and n = 46 (21%) babies were extubated to Nasal Cannula (NC). Out of the n = 220 babies, 18 (8.2%) were reintubated within 1 week after extubation. 14 of the 18 (77.8%) were reintubated within 48 h of extubation. Eleven babies needed reintubation after being extubated to NCPAP (11.2%) and seven were reintubated after extubation to NIPPV (9.2%), none of those who were extubated to NC required reintubation (P = 0.203). The reintubation rate was not affected by extubation to any form of non-invasive ventilation (P = 0.625). The mode of ventilation before extubation does not affect the reintubation rate (P = 0.877). The presence of PDA and NEC was strongly associated with reintubation which increased by two and four-folds respectively in those morbidities. There is an increased risk of reintubation with babies suffering from NEC and BPD and this was associated with an increased risk of hospital stay with a P-value ranging (from 0.02-0.003). Using multivariate logistic regression, NEC the NEC (OR = 5.52, 95% CI 1.26, 24.11, P = 0.023) and the vaginal delivery (OR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.07, 0.78, P = 0.018) remained significantly associated with reintubation.

CONCLUSION

Reintubation rates were less with NIPPV when compared with NCPAP, however, this difference was not statistically significant. This study highlights the need for further research studies with a larger number of neonates in different gestational ages birth weight categories. Ascertaining this information will provide valuable data for the factors that contribute to re-intubation rates and influence the decision-making and management of RDS patients in the future.

Use of Dexamethasone to Prevent Extubation Failure in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit: A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial

Extubation failure is a common event in intensive care units. Corticosteroids are effective in preventing failure in adults, but no consensus has been reached on this matter in pediatrics. We assessed the efficacy of intravenous dexamethasone in mechanically ventilated children and adolescents for more than 48 hours, with at least one risk factor for failure. Extubations were scheduled 24 hours in advance when possible, and patients were randomly assigned into two groups: one group received a loading dose followed by up to four doses of dexamethasone, and the other group received no corticosteroids. Need for reintubation and length of stay in the pediatric intensive care unit were similar in both groups, and frequency of reintubation was 12.9%.

Prediction of extubation success using the diaphragmatic electromyograph results in ventilated neonates

Objectives Extubation failure is common in infants and associated with complications. Methods A prospective study was undertaken of preterm and term born infants. Diaphragm electromyogram (EMG) was measured transcutaneously for 15-60 min prior to extubation. The EMG results were related to tidal volume (Tve) to calculate the neuroventilatory efficiency (NVE). Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were constructed and areas under the ROCs (AUROC) calculated. Results Seventy-two infants, median gestational age 28 (range 23-42) weeks were included; 15 (21%) failed extubation. Infants successfully extubated were more mature at birth (p=0.001), of greater corrected gestational age (CGA) at extubation (p<0.001) and heavier birth weight (p=0.005) than those who failed extubation. The amplitude and area under the curve of the diaphragm EMG were not significantly different between those who were and were not successfully extubated. Those successfully extubated required a significantly lower inspired oxygen and had higher expiratory tidal volumes (Tve) and NVE. The CGA and Tve had AUROCs of 0.83. A CGA of >29.6 weeks had the highest combined sensitivity (86%) and specificity (80%) in predicting extubation success. Conclusions Although NVE differed significantly between those who did and did not successfully extubate, CGA was the best predictor of extubation success.

Noninvasive Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist Versus High Flow Cannula Support After Congenital Heart Surgery

BACKGROUND

Extubation failure rates for critical patients in pediatric intensive care units (ICUs) range from 5% to 29%. Noninvasive (NIV) ventilation has been shown to decrease extubation failure. We compared reintubation rates and outcomes of patients supported with NIV neurally adjusted ventilation assist (NAVA) versus historical controls supported with high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC).

METHODS

Case-control study of infants less than three months of age who underwent cardiac surgery and received NIV support after extubation from January 2011 to May 2017. All patients supported with NIV NAVA after it became available in September 2013 were compared to matched patients extubated to HFNC from prior to September 2013.

RESULTS

Forty-two patients identified for the NIV NAVA group were matched with 42 historical controls supported with HFNC. Groups had similar baseline characteristics based on rate of acute kidney injury, number of single ventricle patients, Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (STAT) category, age, weight, bypass time, and duration of intubation. There was no significant difference in reintubation rates within 72 hours (14.3% in the HFNC group and 16.7% in the NIV NAVA group, P = 1.0). Median duration from extubation to coming off NIV support was longer in the NIV NAVA group (3.6 days vs 0.6 days, P < .001). Median time from extubation to ICU discharge was longer in the NIV NAVA group (10.5 vs 6.8 days, P = .02), as was total postoperative ICU length of stay (LOS; 17.6 vs 12.2, P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Introduction of NIV NAVA for postextubation support did not reduce reintubation rates compared to HFNC. Further study is needed as adoption of NIV NAVA may prolong LOS.

Effects of an extubation readiness test protocol at a tertiary care fully outborn neonatal intensive care unit

Background and objectives

Extubation readiness testing (ERT) in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) is highly variable and lacking standardized criteria. To address this gap, an evidence-based, inter-professionally developed ERT protocol was implemented to assess effectiveness on extubation failure within 72 h and on duration of intubation (DOI).

Methods

A longitudinal retrospective chart review in a level III, fully outborn NICU, of intubated infants admitted 1-year prior (Group 1), and 1 year after implementation (Group 2). Patients were extubated if they passed a 2-stage ERT protocol (3 min continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) followed by 7 min CPAP + pressure support). Descriptive, comparative statistics, and univariate and multiple logistic regression were completed on all patients and a ≤32 6/7 weeks subgroup (intubated at day-of-life 1); p < 0.05 is considered significant.

Results

All patients (n = 589 (n = 294 Group 1, n = 295 Group 2)) were included (preterm, intubated day of life one subgroup: n = 42 Group 1, n = 38 Group 2). For all patients, extubation failure decreased significantly from 9.9% to 4.1% (p = 0.006); Group 1 patients were 2.42 times more likely to experience extubation failure compared with Group 2. Extubation failure in the preterm subgroup decreased from 21.7% to 2.6% (p = 0.01); Group 1 patients were 10.71 times more likely to experience extubation failure. Median DOI was similar in both groups for all patients and in the preterm subgroup.

Conclusions

A unique two-stage ERT protocol was effective at reducing extubation failure rate, without increasing DOI, largely in preterm infants. The evidence-based, interprofessionally developed ERT protocol and its integration into the NICU culture largely contributed to its success.

[Clinical efficacy of nasal high-frequency ventilation in treatment of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome: a Meta analysis]

OBJECTIVE

To systematically evaluate the clinical efficacy of nasal high-frequency ventilation (nHFV) in the treatment of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS).

METHODS

A literature search was performed in PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBase (Ovid), Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, Chinese Journal Full-text Database, Wanfang Data, and Weipu Data to collect the randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the clinical efficacy of nHFV and nasal continuous positive airway pressure (nCPAP) in the treatment of NRDS. A Meta analysis was performed on the included RCTs using Rev Man 5.3 software after data extraction and quality evaluation by Cochrane 5.1.0.

RESULTS

A total of 4 RCTs involving 218 patients were included. The Meta analysis showed that compared with the nCPAP group, the nHFV group had a significantly better treatment outcome (RR=1.73, 95%CI: 1.39-2.15, P<0.00001). There were no significant differences in the incidence rates of intraventricular hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, necrotizing enterocolitis, pneumothorax and retinopathy of prematurity.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with nCPAP, nHFV has better clinical efficacy in the treatment of NRDS, without increasing the risk of related complications.

Markers of Successful Extubation in Extremely Preterm Infants, and Morbidity After Failed Extubation

OBJECTIVES

To identify variables associated with successful elective extubation, and to determine neonatal morbidities associated with extubation failure in extremely preterm neonates.

STUDY DESIGN

This study was a secondary analysis of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network's Surfactant, Positive Pressure, and Oxygenation Randomized Trial that included extremely preterm infants born at 24^0/7 to 27^6/7 weeks' gestation. Patients were randomized either to a permissive ventilatory strategy (continuous positive airway pressure group) or intubation followed by early surfactant (surfactant group). There were prespecified intubation and extubation criteria. Extubation failure was defined as reintubation within 5 days of extubation.

RESULTS

Of 1316 infants in the trial, 1071 were eligible; 926 infants had data available on extubation status; 538 were successful and 388 failed extubation. The rate of successful extubation was 50% (188/374) in the continuous positive airway pressure group and 63% (350/552) in the surfactant group. Successful extubation was associated with higher 5-minute Apgar score, and pH prior to extubation, lower peak fraction of inspired oxygen within the first 24 hours of age and prior to extubation, lower partial pressure of carbon dioxide prior to extubation, and non-small for gestational age status after adjustment for the randomization group assignment. Infants who failed extubation had higher adjusted rates of mortality (OR 2.89), bronchopulmonary dysplasia (OR 3.06), and death/ bronchopulmonary dysplasia (OR 3.27).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher 5-minute Apgar score, and pH prior to extubation, lower peak fraction of inspired oxygen within first 24 hours of age, lower partial pressure of carbon dioxide and fraction of inspired oxygen prior to extubation, and nonsmall for gestational age status were associated with successful extubation. Failed extubation was associated with significantly higher likelihood of mortality and morbidities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00233324.

Risk Factors for Extubation Failure in Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

BACKGROUND

Although antenatal steroids and early use nasal continuous positive airway pressure (NCPAP) have significantly improved outcomes of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome, intubation with ventilator support is still commonly required in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants. The optimal timing of extubation in ELBW infants remains unclear.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed all ELBW preterm infants who were admitted to our neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) from January 2009 to December 2013. Demographic, ventilation, and arterial blood gas analysis results prior to and 2 hours after extubation were collected. Extubation failure was defined as reintubation due to deterioration of respiratory condition within 7 days after extubation. Risk factors for extubation failure were analyzed.

RESULTS

In total, 173 ELBW infants were born and admitted to our NICU during these 5 years. Among these 173 infants, 77 (44.5%) used NCPAP only during their hospitalization (20 diagnosed with chronic lung disease (CLD), 25.9%). Among the 95 patients that required intubation, 27 patients expired so extubation was not attempted. Sixteen of 68 (23.5%) survival cases required reintubation within 7 days after extubation. We found that gestational age, birth body weight, and sex ratio did not differ between the successful extubation group and the failed extubation group. Univariate analysis showed that the failed extubation group had a lower arterial pH right before and 2 hours after extubation, with a lower bicarbonate level after extubation. Further multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed an association between poor acid-base homeostasis 2 hours after extubation (pH < 7.3 and HCO₃ < 18 mM/L) and extubation failure (odds ratio 4.56 and 6.187 and 95% confidence interval: 1.263∼16.462 and 1.68∼22.791, respectively).

CONCLUSION

This study shows that nearly half of ELBW infants do not require intubation. Among ELBW infants who require invasive ventilator support, those who have lower postextubation arterial pH and bicarbonate levels are at high risk of extubation failure.