Mild Hypothermia May Offer Some Improvement to Patients with MODS after CPB Surgery

The multivariable prognostic models for severe complications after heart valve surgery

Background

To provide multivariable prognostic models for severe complications prediction after heart valve surgery, including low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS), acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis (AKI-rH) and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS).

Methods

We developed multivariate logistic regression models to predict severe complications after heart valve surgery using 930 patients collected retrospectively from the first affiliated hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University from January 2014 to December 2015. The validation was conducted using a retrospective dataset of 713 patients from the same hospital from January 2016 to March 2017. We considered two kinds of prognostic models: the PRF models which were built by using the preoperative risk factors only, and the PIRF models which were built by using both of the preoperative and intraoperative risk factors. The least absolute shrinkage selector operator was used for developing the models. We assessed and compared the discriminative abilities for both of the PRF and PIRF models via the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

Compared with the PRF models, the PIRF modes selected additional intraoperative factors, such as auxiliary cardiopulmonary bypass time and combined tricuspid valve replacement. Area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of PRF models for predicting LCOS, AKI-rH and MODS are 0.565 (0.466, 0.664), 0.688 (0.62, 0.757) and 0.657 (0.563, 0.751), respectively. As a comparison, the AUCs of the PIRF models for predicting LOCS, AKI-rH and MODS are 0.821 (0.747, 0.896), 0.78 (0.717, 0.843) and 0.774 (0.7, 0.847), respectively.

Conclusions

Adding the intraoperative factors can increase the predictive power of the prognostic models for severe complications prediction after heart valve surgery.

Red cell distribution width as a predictor of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in patients undergoing heart valve surgery

The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic value of red cell distribution width (RDW) for multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in the early postoperative period in patients undergoing valve replacement or repair surgery. A prospective study was conducted on a group of 713 patients with haemodynamically significant valvular heart disease who underwent elective valvular surgery. The primary end-point at the 30-day follow-up was postoperative MODS. The secondary end-point was death from all causes in patients with MODS. The postoperative MODS occurred in 72 patients. At multivariate analysis: RDW (OR 1.267; 95% CI 1.113-1.441; P=0.0003), creatinine (OR 1.007; 95% CI 1.001-1.013; P=0.02) and age (OR 1.047; 95% CI 1.019-1.077; P=0.001) remained independent predictors of the primary end-point. Receiver operator characteristics analysis determined a cut-off value of RDW for the prediction of the occurrence of the perioperative MODS at 14.3%. RDW (OR 1.448; 95% CI 1.057-1.984; P=0.02) and age (OR 1.057; 95% CI 1.007-1.117; P=0.04) were associated with an increased risk of death in patients with perioperative MODS. Elevated RDW is associated with a higher risk of MODS and death in patients with MODS following heart valve surgery.