Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

Unscheduled Emergency Visits after Cardiac Devices Implantation: Comparison between Cardioverter Defibrillators and Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Devices in less than one year of Follow Up

BACKGROUND

The use of Cardiovascular Implantable Electronic Devices (CIED), such as the Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) and Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT), is increasing. The number of leads may vary according to the device. Lead placement in the left ventricle increases surgical time and may be associated with greater morbidity after hospital discharge, an event that is often confused with the underlying disease severity.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the rate of unscheduled emergency hospitalizations and death after implantable device surgery stratified by the type of device.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study of 199 patients submitted to cardiac device implantation. The groups were stratified according to the type of device: ICD group (n = 124) and CRT group (n = 75). Probability estimates were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method according to the outcome. A value of p < 0.05 was considered significant in the statistical analyses.

RESULTS

Most of the sample comprised male patients (71.9%), with a mean age of 61.1 ± 14.2. Left ventricular ejection fraction was similar between the groups (CRT 37.4 ± 18.1 vs. ICD 39.1 ± 17.0, p = 0.532). The rate of unscheduled visits to the emergency unit related to the device was 4.8% in the ICD group and 10.6% in the CRT group (p = 0.20). The probability of device-related survival of the variable "death" was different between the groups (p = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients after CRT implantation show a higher probability of mortality after surgery at a follow-up of less than 1 year. The rate of unscheduled hospital visits, related or not to the implant, does not differ between the groups.

Predictors of Total Mortality and Echocardiographic Response for Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy: A Cohort Study

Background

Clinical studies demonstrate that up to 40% of patients do not respond to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), thus, appropriate patient selection is critical to the success of CRT in heart failure.

Objective

Evaluation of mortality predictors and response to CRT in the Brazilian scenario.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study including patients submitted to CRT in a tertiary hospital in southern Brazil from 2008 to 2014. Survival was assessed through a database of the State Department of Health (RS). Predictors of echocardiographic response were evaluated using Poisson regression. Survival analysis was performed by Cox regression and Kaplan Meyer curves. A two-tailed p value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

A total of 170 patients with an average follow-up of 1011 ± 632 days were included. The total mortality was 30%. The independent predictors of mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR] of 1.05, p = 0.027), previous acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (HR of 2.17, p = 0.049) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (HR of 3.13, p = 0.015). The percentage of biventricular stimulation at 6 months was identified as protective factor of mortality ([HR] 0.97, p = 0.048). The independent predictors associated with the echocardiographic response were absence of mitral insufficiency, presence of left bundle branch block and percentage of biventricular stimulation.

Conclusion

Mortality in patients submitted to CRT in a tertiary hospital was independently associated with age, presence of COPD and previous AMI. The percentage of biventricular pacing evaluated 6 months after resynchronizer implantation was independently associated with improved survival and echocardiographic response.

Echocardiographic Predictors of Worse Outcome After Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

BACKGROUND

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is the recommended treatment by leading global guidelines. However, 30%-40% of selected patients are non-responders.

OBJECTIVE

To develop an echocardiographic model to predict cardiac death or transplantation (Tx) 1 year after CRT.

METHOD

Observational, prospective study, with the inclusion of 116 patients, aged 64.89 ± 11.18 years, 69.8% male, 68,1% in NYHA FC III and 31,9% in FC IV, 71.55% with left bundle-branch block, and median ejection fraction (EF) of 29%. Evaluations were made in the pre‑implantation period and 6-12 months after that, and correlated with cardiac mortality/Tx at the end of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed with ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping.

RESULTS

There were 29 (25%) deaths/Tx during follow-up of 34.09 ± 17.9 months. Cardiac mortality/Tx was 16.3%. In the multivariate Cox model, EF < 30%, grade III/IV diastolic dysfunction and grade III mitral regurgitation at 6‑12 months were independently related to increased cardiac mortality or Tx, with hazard ratios of 3.1, 4.63 and 7.11, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78.

CONCLUSION

EF lower than 30%, severe diastolic dysfunction and severe mitral regurgitation indicate poor prognosis 1 year after CRT. The combination of two of those variables indicate the need for other treatment options.