Chemotherapy Costs and 21-Gene Recurrence Score Genomic Testing Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Early-Stage Breast Cancer, 2005 to 2011

Next-generation sequencing in oncology: challenges in economic evaluations

INTRODUCTION

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) identifies genetic variants to inform personalized treatment plans. Insufficient evidence of cost-effectiveness impedes the integration of NGS into routine cancer care. The complexity of personalized treatment challenges conventional economic evaluation. Clearly delineating challenges informs future cost-effectiveness analyses to better value and contextualize health, preference-, and equity-based outcomes.

AREAS COVERED

We conducted a scoping review to characterize the applied methods and outcomes of economic evaluations of NGS in oncology and identify existing challenges. We included 27 articles published since 2016 from a search of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. Identified challenges included defining the evaluative scope, managing evidentiary limitations including lack of causal evidence, incorporating preference-based utility, and assessing distributional and equity-based impacts. These challenges reflect the difficulty of generating high-quality clinical effectiveness and real-world evidence (RWE) for NGS-guided interventions.

EXPERT OPINION

Adapting methodological approaches and developing life-cycle health technology assessment (HTA) guidance using RWE is crucial for implementing NGS in oncology. Healthcare systems, decision-makers, and HTA organizations are facing a pivotal opportunity to adapt to an evolving clinical paradigm and create innovative regulatory and reimbursement processes that will enable more sustainable, equitable, and patient-oriented healthcare.

The budget impact of utilizing the Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Score test from a US healthcare payer perspective

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Score test is used to estimate distant recurrence risk of hormone receptor-positive (HR+) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) early-stage breast cancer and inform decisions on the use of adjuvant chemotherapy. A model-based budget impact analysis compared the Oncotype DX test in combination with clinical-pathological risk against using clinical-pathological risk alone for HR+/HER2- node-negative (N0) and node-positive (N1; 1-3 axillary lymph nodes) early-stage breast cancer patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Test and medical costs associated with treatment of breast cancer were assessed through a US healthcare payer perspective. Distributions of patients by Recurrence Score result and distant recurrence probabilities with chemo-endocrine and endocrine therapy were derived from the TAILORx (N0) and RxPONDER (N1) trials. Changes in budget impact were evaluated over a 5-year horizon for a 1,000,000-member hypothetical health plan.

RESULTS

With the Oncotype DX test, there was an incremental budget impact of $261,067 (per member per month (PMPM): $0.004), in the N0 population, and $56,143 (PMPM: $0.001) in the N1 population over the 5-year period. The largest budget impact reduction in the N0 population was attributed to reduced breast cancer recurrence costs (incremental: -$633,457, PMPM: -$0.011), while chemotherapy sparing reduced costs in the N1 population (incremental: -$94,884, PMPM: -$0.002).

CONCLUSION

The clinical benefit of using the Oncotype DX test to inform adjuvant chemotherapy decisions has been shown in multiple randomized controlled trials. This analysis demonstrated that while using the Oncotype DX test to inform adjuvant chemotherapy decisions may slightly increase US healthcare costs over an initial 5-year time horizon (driven by a cost increase in the first year with cost savings reflected in remaining 4 years), there is significant scope for cost savings when assessing beyond this period due to avoided downstream costs of distant recurrence and long-term chemotherapy adverse events. PMPM costs also remain low across all populations examined, demonstrating a close-to-neutral budget impact.

Analyzing Precision Medicine Utilization with Real-World Data: A Scoping Review

Precision medicine (PM), specifically genetic-based testing, is currently used in over 140,000 individual tests to inform the clinical management of disease. Though several databases (e.g., the NIH Genetic Testing Registry) demonstrate the availability of these sequencing-based tests, we do not currently understand the extent to which these tests are used. There exists a need to synthesize the body of real-world data (RWD) describing the use of sequencing-based tests to inform their appropriate use. To accomplish this, we performed a scoping review to examine what RWD sources have been used in studies of PM utilization between January 2015 and August 2021 to characterize the use of genome sequencing (GS), exome sequencing (ES), tumor sequencing (TS), next-generation sequencing-based panels (NGS), gene expression profiling (GEP), and pharmacogenomics (PGx) panels. We abstracted variables describing the use of these types of tests and performed a descriptive statistical analysis. We identified 440 articles in our search and included 72 articles in our study. Publications based on registry databases were the most common, followed by studies based on private insurer administrative claims. Slightly more than one-third (38%) used integrated datasets. Two thirds (67%) of the studies focused on the use of tests for oncological clinical applications. We summarize the RWD sources used in peer-reviewed literature on the use of PM. Our findings will help improve future study design by encouraging the use of centralized databases and registries to track the implementation and use of PM.

Distribution, Chemotherapy Use, and Outcome of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score Between Chinese and White breast Cancer in the United States

PURPOSE

To compare the distribution, chemotherapy-decision making, and prognosis of the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) between Chinese breast cancer (BC) in the United States and White American (WA) BC.

METHODS

We identified early-stage and estrogen receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015. Multivariate logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for statistical analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 67,486 patients were identified, including 66,215 (98.1%) WA patients and 1271 (1.9%) Chinese patients. Regarding the RS, 38,894 (57.6%) had low RS, 23,882 (35.4%) had intermediate RS, and 4710 (7.0%) had high RS. A similar distribution of RS was found between WA and Chinese BC (P = .280). The race was not the predictor associated with high RS. Similar trends of chemotherapy use were found in Chinese and WA BC. In WA BC, there were 4.1%, 31.5%, and 72.2% of patients receiving chemotherapy in low, intermediate, and high RS cohorts, respectively (P < .001). The proportion of chemotherapy use was 6.8%, 30.9%, and 74.0% in Chinese BC with low, intermediate, and high RS cohorts, respectively (P < 0.001). The multivariate prognostic analyses indicated that a higher RS was independently associated with an inferior breast cancer-specific survival. Similar trends were found among those with Chinese and WA BC.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate similar distribution, chemotherapy use, and outcome of the 21-gene RS between Chinese and WA BC in the United States.

A nomogram to predict the high-risk RS in HR+/HER2-breast cancer patients older than 50 years of age

Background

The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) testing can predict the prognosis for luminal breast cancer patients. Meanwhile, patients > 50 years with RS > 25 have improved survival with adjuvant chemotherapy. The current study aimed to develop a nomogram with routine parameters to predict RS.

Methods

We included patients diagnosed with hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)-negative who underwent the 21-gene RS testing and aged > 50 years. The primary outcome was high-risk RS (> 25). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify significant predictors. A predictive nomogram based on logistic model was developed and evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The nomogram was internally validated for discrimination and calibration with bootstrapping method, and externally validated in another cohort. We then assessed the nomogram in different subgroups of patients and compared it with several published models.

Results

A total of 1100 patients were included. Five clinicopathological parameters were used as predictors of a high-risk RS, including tumor grade, histologic subtype, ER expression, PR expression, and Ki-67 index. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.798 (95% CI 0.772–0.825) and optimism adjusted AUC was 0.794 (95% CI 0.781–0.822). External validation demonstrated an AUC value of 0.746 (95% CI 0.685–0.807), which had no significant difference with the training cohort (P = 0.124). Calibration plots indicated that the nomogram-predicted results were well fitted to the actual outcomes in both internal and external validation. The nomogram had better discriminate ability in patients who had tumors > 2 cm (AUC = 0.847, 95% CI 0.804–0.890). When compared with four other existing models, similar AUC was observed between our nomogram and the model constructed by discriminate Lee et al.

Conclusions

We developed a user-friendly nomogram to predict the high-risk RS in luminal breast cancer patients who were older than 50 years of age, which could guide treatment decision making for those who have no access to the 21-gene RS testing.

Comparison of 21-gene assay and St.Gallen International Expert Consensus in the treatment decision for patients with early invasive breast cancers

This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of 21-gene recurrence score (RS) and St. Gallen International Expert Consensus on treatment decision and prognosis of patients with invasive breast cancer. We retrospectively analyzed the therapy protocol and outcome of 134 cases based on age, body mass index (BMI), menopause, pathological types, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stages, percentage of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2), Ki-67, molecular subtype, and tumor biomarkers. RS was calculated based on 21-gene assay following traditional (old RS cutoff) and updated (new RS cutoff) National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guideline. In addition, we also compared treatment protocol of NCCN guidelines with St. Gallen International Expert Consensus. The results showed that BMI, PR, Ki-67, and molecular subtype are critical for the evaluation of risk factors. Based on the new cutoff, low, middle, and high RS were 18%, 66%, and 16%, respectively. In contrast, based on the old cutoff, low, middle, and high RS were 60%, 29%, and 11%, respectively. The agreement rate of NCCN guidelines and St. Gallen International Expert Consensus for adjuvant treatment was 50. However, there is minimal agreement (0.151, 0.071) in kappa coefficient of old and new cutoff. This study revealed that the combination of NCCN guidelines and St. Gallen International Expert Consensus might improve the benefits of adjuvant treatment in patients with early invasive breast cancer.