Risk stratification in acute variceal bleeding: Far from an ideal score

Partial splenic embolization combined with endoscopic therapies and vasoconstrictive drugs reduces rebleeding in cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding and hypersplenism: a multicenter randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to compare the efficacy of partial splenic embolization (PSE) combined with endoscopic therapy and endoscopic therapy alone in cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) and hypersplenism.

METHODS

Cirrhosis patients with AVB who visited three hospitals from June 2016 to June 2022 were prospectively enrolled and randomly allocated to either the endoscopic therapy combined with PSE group (EP group) or the endoscopic intervention group (E group) in a 1:1 ratio. The primary endpoint of the study was re-bleeding of varices during follow-up, and the secondary endpoints were the recurrence of varices, death, and adverse events.

RESULTS

One hundred and fourteen patients were prospectively included, of whom 110 completed the trial. The risk of variceal re-bleeding (19.3% vs. 40.4% (23/57), p = 0.013) and variceal recurrence (28.1% vs. 63.2%, p < 0.001) five years after treatment was significantly lower in the EP group than in the E group, and the EP treatment was the only significant independent risk factor affecting variceal re-bleeding and variceal recurrence in patients. The mortality rate was comparable between the EP and E groups. Peripheral blood counts and liver function all improved significantly in the EP group compared to the E group during the follow-up (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The rates of variceal re-bleeding and recurrence were significantly lower in cirrhosis patients with AVB and hypersplenism after combined endoscopic and PSE treatment compared to those who were provided endoscopic treatment only. The peripheral blood counts and liver function were also improved significantly in EP group (NCT02778425).

General anesthesia in patients with hepatic encephalopathy and acute variceal bleeding undergoing endoscopic treatment: A retrospective study

The management of cirrhotic patient with encephalopathy and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) remains a clinical challenge with a high mortality. Early endoscopic therapies are frequently applied in patients with AVB. However, the application of general anesthesia in endoscopic surgery for patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is pretty challenging. The present study aimed to evaluate the possible effect of general anesthesia with tracheal intubation on patient complicated with encephalopathy and AVB during endoscopic procedure. Thirty-six cirrhotic patients with encephalopathy and AVB were retrospectively studied, 14 patients underwent endoscopic treatment under general anesthesia with tracheal intubation, and 22 patients received pharmacological treatment, or and endoscopic therapy without general anesthesia served as the control group. Routine clinical and laboratory data were collected. The total mortality rate was 13.9% (5/36), 2 (14.3%) in the anesthesia group, 3 (13.6%) in the control group. The child-Pugh class of death cases were all grade C, 3 (60%) of them were in the stage IV of HE. The stage of HE was all improved in the 2 groups, 12 (85.8 %) patients were totally recovered from consciousness disturbance in the anesthesia group and 16 (72.7 %) in the control group respectively, the difference between the 2 groups was not significant (P>0.05). Except the death cases, there were still 3 patients in the control group had impaired consciousness at discharge. Child-Pugh score, Child-Pugh class and the stage of HE in the anesthesia group were significantly improved at discharge compared with those before operation. General anesthesia does not aggravate the severity of encephalopathy, and endoscopic treatment under general anesthesia with tracheal intubation is effective for HE patients complicated with AVB.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is independently associated with higher mortality for cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage: Retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage (AEVH) is a common complication of cirrhosis and might precipitate multi-organ failure, causing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

AIM

To analyze if the presence and grading of ACLF as defined by European Society for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) is able to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients presenting AEVH.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study executed in Hospital Geral de Caxias do Sul. Data from medical records from 2010 to 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital electronic database for patients who received terlipressin. Medical records were reviewed in order to determine the diagnosis of cirrhosis and AEVH, including 97 patients. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used for univariate analysis and a stepwise approach to the Cox regression for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

All- cause mortality for AEVH patients was 36%, 40.2% and 49.4% for 30-, 90- and 365-day, respectively. The prevalence of ACLF was 41.3%. Of these, 35% grade 1, 50% grade 2 and 15% grade 3. In multivariate analysis, the non-use of non-selective beta-blockers, presence and higher grading of ACLF and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores were independently associated with higher mortality for 30-day with the addition of higher Child-Pugh scores for 90-day period.

CONCLUSION

Presence and grading of ACLF according to the EASL-CLIF criteria was independently associated with higher 30- and 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted due to AEVH.

Value of Some Scoring Systems for the Prognosis of Rebleeding and In-Hospital Mortality in Liver Cirrhosis with Acute Variceal Bleeding

Background: Upper gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage, caused by acute esophageal variceal bleeding, is a common complication and a leading cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. Therefore, predicting the risk in order to employ an active management to prevent rebleeding and death is crucial. Currently, there are many prognostic scoring systems that have been proposed, but research is needed to find a valid score which can be applied in clinical practice in each country and population. Aims: To compare the value of ALBI (Albumin-Bilirubin), PALBI (Platelet Albumin-Bilirubin), AIMS65, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and Child–Pugh scores (CPS) approaches in predicting early rebleeding and in-hospital mortality of acute variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. Subjects and methods: We performed a cross-sectional descriptive study on cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding who were being treated at the Department of Gastroenterology, Intensive care unit—Military Hospital 103 and the Institute for Treatment of Digestive Diseases—108 Military Central Hospital from September 2020 to May 2022. We calculated ALBI, PALBI, AIMS65, MELD, Child–Pugh values and compared them with the rates of early rebleeding and in-hospital mortality. Then, determined and compared the prognostic value through an analysis of the area under the curve (AUC). Results: 222 patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding were eligible for inclusion in the study. The rates of rebleeding and in-hospital mortality were 9.0% and 6.8%, respectively. Regarding the prognosis of early rebleeding, the ALBI and PALBI scores have good prognostic value (AUROC 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63–0.85 and AUROC 0.7; 95% CI: 0.59–0.81; p = 0.004, respectively), while the Child–Pugh, MELD, AIMS65 scores have little prognostic value, with AUROC < 0.70. Regarding prognosis of in-hospital mortality: the ALBI, PALBI, MELD and AIMS65 all have good value in predicting in-hospital mortality, with AUROC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.68–0.93, respectively; p < 0.001); 0.8 (95% CI: 0.69–0.91; p <0.001); 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72–0.93; p < 0.001); and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76–0.87, p < 0.001), respectively. While Child–Pugh score only has medium prognostic value, with AUROC 0.79 (95% CI: 0.66–0.92; p < 0.05). However, there was no significant difference between these prognostic scoring systems. Conclusion: the ALBI, PALBI, MELD and AIMS65 scores all had similar good value in predicting in-hospital mortality, but with early rebleeding prognosis, only ALBI and PALBI had good value. CPS does not show prognostic value like other scores, both in predicting early rebleeding and in-hospital mortality.

Development and validation of a practical prognostic nomogram for evaluating inpatient mortality of cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) have high short-term mortality. Established prognostic scores are seldom applicable clinically, partially because they need external validation or contain subjective variables. We aimed to develop and validate a practical prognostic nomogram based on objective predictors to predict prognosis for cirrhotic patients with AVH.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled 308 AVH patients with cirrhosis from our center as the derivation cohort to develop a new nomogram using logistic regression and validated it in cohorts of patients from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III (n = 247) and IV (n = 302).

RESULTS

International normalized ratio (INR), albumin (ALB) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were identified as predictors for inpatient mortality and a nomogram was constructed based on them. The nomogram discriminated well in both derivation and MIMIC-III/-IV validation cohorts with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 0.846 and 0.859/0.833, respectively and showed a better agreement between expected and observed outcomes (Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, all comparisons, P > 0.05) than other scores in all cohorts. Our nomogram had the lowest Brier scores (0.082/0.114/0.119 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) and highest R² (0.367/0.393/0.346 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) compared to the recalibrated model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-hepatic encephalopathy (MELD-HE) and cirrhosis acute gastrointestinal bleeding (CAGIB) scores in all cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a practical prognostic nomogram using easily verified indicators available in initial patient evaluation, which may serve as a reliable tool to accurately predict inpatient mortality for cirrhotic patients with AVH.

Usefulness of the d-dimer to albumin ratio for risk assessment in patients with acute variceal bleeding at the emergency department: retrospective observational study

Background

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a severe complication of portal hypertension that is caused by rupture of the esophageal or gastric varix. Scoring system for risk stratification of AVB is difficult to use because various variables must be entered, and it is difficult to apply early in the emergency department (ED). We compared and analyzed the usefulness of the D-dimer to albumin ratio (DAR) for risk stratification of AVB.

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, medical records of patients with AVB Between January 2019 and December 2020 were assessed. The primary endpoint was to evaluate whether DAR was a predictor of clinical outcomes for AVB. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed using cut-off values determined by the Youden Index. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the factors contributing to the development of outcomes.

Results

Overall, 67 patients required intensive care. The cut-off value of DAR for patients requiring intensive care was 400. A DAR > 400 (adjusted HR: 5.636 [95% CI: 2.216–14.332]) independently predicted the need for ICU admission in these patients. Overall, 13 patients required long-term hospitalization. The cut-off value of DAR for patients requiring long-term hospitalization was 403. A DAR > 403 (adjusted HR: 9.899 [95% CI: 2.012–48.694]) independently predicted the need for long-term hospitalization. Overall, 95 patients required transfusion. The cut-off value of DAR for patients requiring transfusion was 121. A DAR > 121 (adjusted HR: 4.680 [95% CI: 1.703–12.862]) independently predicted the need for transfusion. Overall, 11 patients died during study period. The cut-off value of DAR for mortality was 450. A DAR > 450 (adjusted HR: 26.261 [95% CI: 3.054–225.827]) independently predicted mortality.

Conclusions

The DAR can be used for outcome assessment in patients with AVB with various scoring systems, but its explanatory power is not high.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-022-00696-4.

A New Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Intracranial Hemorrhage in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients After Intravenous Thrombolysis

Background

We aimed to develop and validate a new nomogram for predicting the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) after intravenous thrombolysis (IVT).

Methods

A retrospective study enrolled 553 patients with AIS treated with IVT. The patients were randomly divided into two cohorts: the training set (70%, n = 387) and the testing set (30%, n = 166). The factors in the predictive nomogram were filtered using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The performance of the nomogram was assessed based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

After multivariable logistic regression analysis, certain factors, such as smoking, National Institutes of Health of Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), were found to be independent predictors of ICH and were used to construct a nomogram. The AUC-ROC values of the nomogram were 0.887 (95% CI: 0.842–0.933) and 0.776 (95% CI: 0.681–0.872) in the training and testing sets, respectively. The AUC-ROC of the nomogram was higher than that of the Multicenter Stroke Survey (MSS), Glucose, Race, Age, Sex, Systolic blood Pressure, and Severity of stroke (GRASPS), and stroke prognostication using age and NIH Stroke Scale-100 positive index (SPAN-100) scores for predicting ICH in both the training and testing sets (p < 0.05). The calibration plot demonstrated good agreement in both the training and testing sets. DCA indicated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusions

The new nomogram, which included smoking, NIHSS, BUN/Cr, and NLR as variables, had the potential for predicting the risk of ICH in patients with AIS after IVT.