One-Year Mortality Risk Stratification in Patients Hospitalized for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure: Construction of TSOC-HFrEF Risk Scoring Model

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure admitted to the ICU: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Acute heart failure is a serious condition. Atrial fibrillation is the most frequent arrhythmia in patients with acute heart failure. The occurrence of atrial fibrillation in heart failure patients worsens their prognosis and leads to a substantial increase in treatment costs. There is no tool that can effectively predict the onset of atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure in the ICU currently.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the MIMIC-IV database of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for acute heart failure and who were initially sinus rhythm. Data on demographics, comorbidities, laboratory findings, vital signs, and treatment were extracted. The cohort was divided into a training set and a validation set. Variables selected by LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression in the training set were used to develop a model for predicting the occurrence of atrial fibrillation in acute heart failure in the ICU. A nomogram was drawn and an online calculator was developed. The discrimination and calibration of the model was evaluated. The performance of the model was tested using the validation set.

RESULTS

This study included 2342 patients with acute heart failure, 646 of whom developed atrial fibrillation during their ICU stay. Using LASSO and multiple logistic regression, we selected six significant variables: age, prothrombin time, heart rate, use of vasoactive drugs within 24 h, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and Acute Physiology Score (APS) III. The C-index of the model was 0.700 (95% CI 0.672-0.727) and 0.682 (95% CI 0.639-0.725) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration curves also performed well in both sets.

CONCLUSION

We developed a simple and effective model for predicting atrial fibrillation in patients with acute heart failure in the ICU.

Oxidative stress markers-driven prognostic model to predict post-discharge mortality in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction

Background

Current predictive models based on biomarkers reflective of different pathways of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) pathogenesis constitute a useful tool for predicting death risk among HFrEF patients. The purpose of the study was to develop a new predictive model for post-discharge mortality risk among HFrEF patients, based on a combination of clinical patients’ characteristics, N-terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and oxidative stress markers as a potentially valuable tool for routine clinical practice.

Methods

116 patients with stable HFrEF were recruited in a prospective single-center study. Plasma levels of NT-proBNP and oxidative stress markers [superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPX), uric acid (UA), total bilirubin (TB), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC)] were measured in the stable predischarge condition. Generalized linear model (GLM), random forest and extreme gradient boosting models were developed to predict post-discharge mortality risk using clinical and laboratory data. Through comprehensive evaluation, the most performant model was selected.

Results

During a median follow-up of 525 days (7–930), 33 (28%) patients died. Among the three created models, the GLM presented the best performance for post-discharge death prediction in HFrEF. The predictors included in the GLM model were age, female sex, beta blockers, NT-proBNP, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), TAC levels, admission systolic blood pressure (SBP), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor II blockers (ACEI/ARBs) and UA levels. Our model had a good discriminatory power for post-discharge mortality [The area under the curve (AUC) = 74.5%]. Based on the retained model, an online calculator was developed to allow the identification of patients with heightened post-discharge death risk.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we created a new and simple tool that may allow the identification of patients at heightened post-discharge mortality risk and could assist the treatment decision-making.