The prognosis of neck residue nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients: results from a case-cohort study

Tumor residue in patients with stage II-IVA nasopharyngeal carcinoma who received intensity-modulated radiation therapy: development and validation of a prediction nomogram integrating postradiotherapy plasma Epstein-Barr virus deoxyribonucleic acid, clinical stage, and radiotherapy dose

BACKGROUND

To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for tumor residue 3-6 months after treatment based on postradiotherapy plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), clinical stage, and radiotherapy (RT) dose in patients with stage II-IVA nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT).

METHODS

In this retrospective study, 1050 eligible patients with stage II-IVA NPC, who completed curative IMRT and underwent pretreatment and postradiotherapy (-7 to +28 days after IMRT) EBV DNA testing, were enrolled from 2012 to 2017. The prognostic value of the residue was explored using Cox regression analysis in patients (n=1050). A nomogram for predicting tumor residues after 3-6 months was developed using logistic regression analyses in the development cohort (n=736) and validated in an internal cohort (n=314).

RESULTS

Tumor residue was an independent inferior prognostic factor for 5-year overall survival, progression-free survival, locoregional recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival (all P<0.001). A prediction nomogram based on postradiotherapy plasma EBV DNA level (0 vs. 1-499 vs. ≥500 copies/ml), clinical stage (II vs. III vs. IVA), and RT dose (68.00-69.96 vs. 70.00-74.00 Gy) estimated the probability of residue development. The nomogram showed better discrimination (area under the curve (AUC): 0.752) than either the clinical stage (0.659) or postradiotherapy EBV DNA level (0.627) alone in the development and validation cohorts (AUC: 0.728).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a nomogram model integrating clinical characteristics at the end of IMRT for predicting whether tumor will residue or not after 3-6 months. Thus, high-risk NPC patients who might benefit from immediate additional intervention could be identified by the model, and the probability of residue can be reduced in the future.

Short-term efficacy and long-term survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with radiographically visible residual disease following observation or additional intervention: A real-world study in China

Background

To explore the short- and long-term outcomes in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected residual disease at 3 months post-treatment who received intervention either promptly (0 month) or following observation (after an additional 3 months).

Methods

A total of 272 patients with residual disease at 3 months post-treatment (observation [observation for additional 3 months]: 122, intervention [prompt intervention]: 150) were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to examine the survival. Adverse events were analyzed in all patients.

Results

Patients in the observation group had a lower 3-year overall survival (77.1% vs. 85.2%), progression-free survival (10.2% vs. 18.1%), and locoregional relapse-free survival (10.2% vs. 20.6%) (all p < .05), but not distant metastasis-free survival (83.8% vs. 78.4%, p = .189), whereas patients in the intervention group achieved higher complete remission (CR) rates (43.3% vs. 21.2%, p = .003). Patients who achieved CR after prompt intervention had a better survival rate than those who achieved observation-CR or non-CR (p < .001). Multivariate analyses revealed that a wait-and-see policy was an independent prognostic factor for impaired survival (p < .001). No significant differences of acute or late toxicities were observed between the two groups.

Conclusions

Patients with NPC with MRI-detected residual disease 3 months post-radiotherapy should be encouraged to undergo prompt intervention rather than adopting a passive wait-and-see policy.

A Nomogram for the Prognosis of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma with MR Imaging-Detected Tumor Residue at the End of Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

Objective

This study set out to institute an effective nomogram to predict the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected residual tumor at the end of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).

Background

This study retrospectively analyzed the prognostic factors of NPC using MRI-detected residual tumor at the end of IMRT, in order to individualize the treatment of patients with poor prognosis as early as possible.

Methods

Overall, 162 NPC patients with local or regional residual tumor at the end of IMRT were retrospectively analyzed. Based on multivariate Cox regression analysis using the backward stepwise method, a nomogram was generated to predict the prognosis of these patients. Identification, calibration, clinical applicability and reproducibility were evaluated by C-index, time-dependent AUC, calibration curve and bootstrap verification. According to the best cut-off value of total score of prognoses calculated by X-tile software, all patients were separated into either low-risk or high-risk group.

Results

The nomogram identified age, chemotherapy, N stage, lymph nodes necrosis are significant predictors of prognosis. The AUC of the prediction model is 0.754, and the consistency index is 0.724 (95% confidence interval is 0.659–0.788). The model has good discrimination ability. Through bootstrapping test, the consistency index, corrected slope was 0.723, 0.861, respectively. The calibration slope of predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival was 1.006 and 1.071, respectively. The calibration curve showed satisfactory calibration effect and good net benefit. The best cut-off value of total score of prognoses calculated by X-tile software was 149.1. Kaplan–Meier survival curve showed that OS and DMFS in the high-risk group were substantially reduced compared to those in the low-risk group.

Conclusion

We constructed and validated a new nomogram to help clinicians understand the prognosis of NPC patients with residue at the end of IMRT. With an estimate of the individual risk, clinicians can start treatment decisions as early as possible for high-risk patients with poor prognosis.