Nomogram to Predict Cancer-Specific Survival in Patients with Pancreatic Acinar Cell Carcinoma: A Competing Risk Analysis

Rare tumours of the pancreas: monocentric study

PURPOSE

The biology of rare pancreatic tumours, which differs from that of ductal pancreatic cancer, requires increased attention. Although the majority of rare pancreatic tumours are benign, it is difficult to decide whether an invasive component exists without complete removal of the lesion, despite considerable progress in diagnosis. We are investigating a large cohort of patients with histologically confirmed epithelial non-ductal non-neuroendocrine neoplasms of the pancreas.

METHODS

Here we analyze long-term survival from patients, who underwent resection of histologically confirmed epithelial non-ductal non-neuroendocrine neoplasms of the pancreas. At our department between Jan 1st, 1999, and Dec 31st, 2019. The median follow-up was 61 (range 0-168) month. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 26.0 (IBM, Chicago, IL, USA) software.

RESULTS

46 patients (48%) were followed up for more than 5 years, 18 patients (19%) for more than 10 years. The 5-year and 10-year survival rates for rare non-invasive pancreatic tumours were 72% and 55% respectively. The proportion of rare tumour entities (non-ductal and non-neuroendocrine) increased continuously and statistically significantly (p = 0.004) from 4.2 to 12.3% in our clinic between 1999 and 2019. If there is no invasive growth yet, there is a varying risk of malignant degeneration in the course of the disease. Therefore, the indication for pancreatic resection is still the subject of discussion.

CONCLUSION

The long-term prognosis of rare epithelial pancreatic tumours after R0 resection-even if they are already malignant-is much better than that of ductal pancreatic cancer.

Comprehensive review of pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma: epidemiology, diagnosis, molecular features and treatment

Pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma is a rare form (0.2-4.3%) of pancreatic neoplasm with unique clinical and molecular characteristics, which largely differ from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma occurs more frequently in males and can occur in children. Serum lipase is elevated in 24-58% of patients with pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma. Pancreatic acinar cell carcinomas tend to be large at diagnosis (median tumour size: ~5 cm) and are frequently located in the pancreas head. Radiologically, pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma generally exhibits a solid appearance; however, necrosis, cystic changes and intratumoral haemorrhage can occur in larger lesions. Immunostaining is essential for the definitive diagnosis of pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma. Compared with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma has a more favourable prognosis. Although radical surgery is recommended for patients with pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma who do not have distant metastases, the recurrence rate is high. The effectiveness of adjuvant therapy for pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma is unclear. The response to FOLFIRINOX is generally favourable, and some patients achieve a complete response. Pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma has a different genomic profile compared with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Although genomic analyses have shown that pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma rarely has KRAS, TP53 and CDKN2A mutations, it has a higher prevalence of homologous recombination-related genes, including BRCA1/2 and ATM, than pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, suggesting high sensitivity to platinum-containing regimens and PARP inhibitors. Targeted therapies for genomic alternations are beneficial. Therefore, genetic testing is important for patients with pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma to choose the optimal therapeutic strategy.

Establishment and external validation of prognosis prediction nomogram for patients with distant metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: based on a large population

BACKGROUND

Most patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) have developed distant metastasis at the time of diagnosis, while there is rear related nomogram to predict the prognosis.

METHODS

Clinical data of patients pathologically diagnosed of ICC with distant metastasis were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2005 to 2019. Finally, patients diagnosed as ICC in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2014 to 2019 were collected for external verification. All data were divided into training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was established based on independent prognostic factors using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), the calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the prediction accuracy of the nomogram.

RESULTS

This study finally included 572 ICC with distant metastasis patients, another 32 patients collected by the author's hospital were used as external verification. Results showed that age, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors, and nomogram was established. The AUC of predicting 3, 6, 9-month overall survival were 0.866, 0.841 and 0.786. The ROC curves and calibration curves showed that the nomogram had good predictive accuracy, and DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical applicability.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram has good accuracy in predicting prognosis of DM-ICC patients, which would be of good significance to improve the prognosis of these patients.

Development and validation of web-based nomograms for predicting survival status in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma depending on the surgical status: a SEER database analysis

This study aimed to develop and validate prognostic nomograms that can estimate the probability of 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) as well as cancer-specific survival (CSS) for Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICCA) patients. Clinical data of 1446 patients diagnosed with ICCA between 2010 and 2017 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed. In both the OS and the CSS group, the training cohort and validation cohort were divided into a 7:3 ratio. Age, sex, AJCC T stage, AJCC N stage, AJCC M stage, surgical status, and tumor grade were selected as independent prognostic risk factors to build the nomograms. To compare the efficacy of predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS rates of the nomogram with the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, we evaluated the Harrell's index of concordance (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) in both cohorts. The results showed the nomogram for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS prediction performed better than the AJCC staging system. In the subgroup analysis for patients could not receive surgery as the primary treatment. We developed two nomograms for predicting the 1-, and 2-year OS and CSS rates following the same analysis procedure. Results indicate that the performance of both nomograms, which contained sex, AJCC T stage, AJCC M stage, chemotherapy, and tumor grade and prognostic factors, was also superior to the AJCC staging system. Meanwhile, four dynamic network-based nomograms were published. The survival analysis showed the survival rate of patients classified as high-risk based on the nomogram score was significantly lower compared to those categorized as low-risk (P < 0.0001). Finally, accurate and convenient nomograms were established to assist clinicians in making more personalized prognosis predictions for ICCA patients.

Development and validation of a network calculator model for safety and efficacy after pancreaticoduodenectomy in the elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer

BACKGROUND

Benefiting from increased life expectancy and improved perioperative management, more elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer (PHC) underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). However, individualized predictive models for the safety and efficacy of PD is still lacking. this study aimed to developed three safety- and efficacy-related risk calculators for elderly (> = 65 years) PHC patients.

METHODS

This study was designed with two research cohorts, namely, the training cohort and the validation cohort, and comprises four general steps: (1) Risk factors were analyzed for the incidence of postoperative complications, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) in the training cohort (N = 271) using logistic and Cox-regression analysis. (2) Nomograms were then plotted based on the above results. (3) The accuracy of the developed nomogram models was then verified with the validation cohort (N = 134) data using consistency index (C-index) and calibration curves. (4) We then evaluated the efficacy of these nomograms using decision curve analysis (DCA) in both the training and validation cohorts, and ultimately constructed three online calculators based on these nomograms.

RESULTS

We identified ASA, diabetes, smoking, and lymph node invasion as predisposing risk factors for postoperative complications, and the predictive factors that affected both OS and CSS were ASA, diabetes, BMI, CA19-9 level, and tumor diameter. By integrating the above risk factors, we constructed three nomograms on postoperative complication, CSS, and OS. The C-index for complication, CSS, and OS were 0.824, 0.784, and 0.801 in the training cohort and 0.746, 0.718, and 0.708 in the validation cohort. Moreover, the validation curves and DCA demonstrated good calibration and robust compliance in both training and validation cohorts. We then developed three web calculators (https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMCD/, https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMCSS/, and https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMOS/) to facilitate the use of the nomograms.

CONCLUSIONS

The calculators demonstrated promising performance as an tool for predicting the safety and efficacy of PD in elderly PHC patients.

Lymph Node Ratio Nomogram-Based Prognostic Model for Resected Distal Cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Several variables have been described as prognostic factors for resected distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCC), including lymph node metastases (N status) and lymph node ratio (LNR). The present study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of LNR on survival and to establish a novel prognostic nomogram to predict the cancer-specific recurrence-free survival (RFS) of dCC.

STUDY DESIGN

Between December 2006 and September 2020, 415 consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) for dCC in 10 centers were identified. Multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify all independent risk factors among several prognostic factors. A nomogram was then developed and assessed by integrating the independent prognostic factors into the model, and the concordance index (C-index) was used to evaluate its performance.

RESULTS

According to Cox regression multivariate analysis, a nomogram based on independent prognostic factor for RFS was performed including LNR 15 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.442, 95% CI 1.348-4.425, p = 0.003), perineural invasion (HR 3.100, 95% CI 1.183-8.122, p = 0.025), differentiation grade (HR 2.100, 95% CI 1.172-4.143, p = 0.021), and radicality of PD (HR 2.276, 95% CI 1.223-4.234, p = 0.009). The C-index of the nomogram, tailored based on the previous significant factors, was 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

LNR15 yields a high prognostic efficiency for RFS. The nomogram based on LNR can provide an accurate prognosis assessment for patients with resected dCC.

Survival Outcome and Prognostic Factors for Pancreatic Acinar Cell Carcinoma: Retrospective Analysis from the German Cancer Registry Group

Simple Summary

Less than 1% of all pancreatic malignancies are acinar cell carcinomas. Based on data from the German Cancer Registry Group, we performed a comparative analysis of characteristics and prognostic factors of pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma and the most common type of pancreatic cancer—pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Compared to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, patients with pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma were younger at the time of diagnosis and the percentage of males was higher. The prognosis of patients with pancreatic acinar carcinoma was better than that of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Surgical resection was the strongest positive prognostic factor for pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma. The study shows that pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma has features distinct from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Radical resection should be advocated, whenever feasible.

Abstract

Background: Pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma (PACC) is a distinct type of pancreatic cancer with low prevalence. We aimed to analyze prognostic factors and survival outcome for PACC in comparison to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), based on data from the German Cancer Registry Group. Methods: Patients with PACC and PDAC were extracted from pooled data of the German clinical cancer registries (years 2000 to 2019). The distribution of demographic parameters, tumor stage and therapy modes were compared between PACC and PDAC. The Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to delineate prognostic factors for PACC. Propensity score matching was used to compare survival between PACC and PDAC. Results: There were 233 (0.44%) patients with PACC out of 52,518 patients with pancreatic malignancy. Compared to PDAC, patients with PACC were younger (median age 66 versus 70, respectively, p < 0.001) and the percentage of males was higher (66.1% versus 53.3%, respectively, p < 0.001). More patients were resected with PACC than with PDAC (56.2% versus 38.9%, respectively, p < 0.001). The estimated overall median survival in PACC was 22 months (95% confidence interval 15 to 27), compared to 12 months (95% confidence interval 10 to 13) in the matched PDAC cohort (p < 0.001). Surgical resection was the strongest positive prognostic factor for PACC after adjusting for sex, age, and distant metastases (hazard ratio 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.22 to 0.51, p < 0.001). There was no survival benefit for adjuvant therapy in PACC. Conclusions: PACC has overall better prognosis than PDAC. Surgical resection is the best therapeutic strategy for PACC and should be advocated even in advanced tumor stages.

Clinical Characteristics of Resected Acinar Cell Carcinoma of the Pancreas: A Korean Multi-Institutional Study

Simple Summary

Pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma accounts for less than 1% of primary pancreatic neoplasms. Because of its rarity, its characteristics and clinical outcomes remain unclear. Treatment strategies for pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma have relied on those of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. In previous studies, it has been difficult to identify its characteristics due to the lack of cohort numbers in single institutional studies with detailed data and the lack of detailed data in large cohort multi-institutional studies. This retrospective multicenter cohort used a database founded in 2015 by the Korean Association of Hepato-Biliary Pancreatic Surgery. This database has collected nationwide patient data with details. In the present study, we aimed to better understand clinical outcomes of resected pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma and to lay the groundwork for establishing proper treatment strategies.

Abstract

Given the rare incidence of pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma (PACC), its post-resection clinical outcomes remain unclear. Treatment strategies for PACC have relied on those of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The present study retrospectively investigated clinicopathologic characteristics of resected PACC registered in the Korea Tumor Registry System Biliary Pancreas database. Among 59 patients with a mean age of 59.2 years and a male predominance (83.1%), 43, 5, 7, and 4 had pure PACC, ductal differentiations, mixed neuroendocrine carcinomas, and intraductal and papillary variants, respectively. The mean tumor size was 4.6 cm, consisting of eight at T1, 26 at T2, and 25 at T3 stages. Metastasis to regional lymph node was identified in 15 (25.4%) patients. Thirty-one (52.5%) patients received adjuvant therapy. Five-year survival rate was 57.4%. The median survival was 78.8 months. In survival comparison according to the stage with AJCC system, N stage (lymph node metastasis), but not T stage, showed significant differences (p = 0.027). Resected PACC appeared to have clinical outcomes distinct from those of PDAC in this nationwide study. Therefore, large-scale multinational studies are needed to overcome the rarity of PACC and to establish an appropriate treatment strategies and staging system.

Nomograms for predicting cancer-specific survival in patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma: a population-based analysis

Background

This study identified the risk factors for survival in patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL). Nomograms were developed and validated to predict individualized overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in this particular cohort.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with PCNSL between 1975 and 2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for this study. The Cox regression model, the Fine and Grey's model, and the backward method were applied to determine the risk factors for OS and CSS. Nomograms were established accordingly. Internal and external validation was performed in an Asian population to examine the accuracy of the nomograms.

Results

A total of 5,900 patients with PCNSL were identified from the SEER database. A further 163 patients with PCNSL from the Beijing Tiantan Hospital between 2004 and 2018 were included. Age at diagnosis, tumor site, pathological subtype, surgery, chemotherapy, coexisting malignancies, and HIV infection were independent risk factors of CSS. In addition to the risk factors of CSS, gender, marital status, and radiation were also independent factors of OS. Nomograms were developed to estimate the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS. The discrimination and calibration of the nomograms performed well. The C-indexes of the nomograms for OS and CSS prediction were 0.728 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.703-0.753] and 0.726 (95% CI: 0.696-0.756), respectively. In addition, compared with previously published OS nomograms, the newly established nomograms displayed superior prediction for OS.

Conclusions

Nomograms predicting the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS and CSS of patients with PCNSL were established in this study. The validated nomograms showed relatively good performance and may be used clinically to evaluate patients' individualized risk and prognosis with PCNSL. Free software for individualized survival prediction is provided at http://www.pcnsl-survivalprediction.cn.

Clinical Analysis of Acinar Cell Carcinoma of the Pancreas: A Single-Center Experience of 45 Consecutive Cases

Backgrounds:

Acinar cell carcinoma of the pancreas is a rare malignancy, and its features remain unclear. We aimed to analyze the clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis of acinar cell carcinoma with our institutional case series.

Methods:

Patients diagnosed with acinar cell carcinoma in our hospital between 2005 and 2019 were reviewed. Investigations on clinicopathological features, treatment details and long-term survival were performed.

Results:

A total of 45 pathologically confirmed acinar cell carcinomas were identified. The median age at diagnosis was 58 years with a male-to-female ratio of 3.1:1. There were 24 (53.3%) localized, 5 (11.1%) locally advanced and 16 (35.6%) metastatic cases, with a pancreatic head-to-body/tail ratio of 1:1.4 for all the primary lesions. In the localized group, there were 10 pancreatoduodenectomy, 12 distal pancreatectomy, 1 total pancreatectomy, and 1 distal pancreatectomy combined with proximal gastrectomy. Among the locally advanced and metastatic cases, 13 patients received chemotherapy, 1 received concurrent radiochemotherapy, 1 underwent synchronous resection of primary tumor and liver metastasis, 1 underwent palliative operation, 1 underwent exploratory laparotomy, and 4 required no treatment. The median overall survival of this series was 18.9 months with a 5-year survival rate of 19.6%. Moreover, the resected acinar cell carcinoma patients were associated with prolonged survival compared with the unresected cases (36.6 vs. 8.5 months, P < 0.001).

Conclusions:

Surgical resection could improve the long-term survival of acinar cell carcinoma patients, which might also improve the prognosis of selected metastatic cases. Large-scale studies are needed to further clarify the biological behavior and clinical features, and to seek the optimal treatments.

Development and Validation a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Background: This study aims to establish an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC).

Patients and Methods: Data used to build the nomogram comes from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients diagnosed with ICC between 2005 and 2016 were retrospectively collected. Prediction accuracy and discrimination ability of the nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to compare the precision of the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival of the nomogram with 8th American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) staging system. Finally, it was verified in a prospective study of patients diagnosed with ICC in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2013 to 2020 by bootstrap resampling.

Result: The study contains two parts of data; we establish a nomogram using external data, and we conducted internal verification and external verification. The nomogram that we have established has good calibration, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74–0.76) for overall survival (OS) prediction. The AUC value of the nomogram predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 0.821, 0.828, and 0.836, which were higher than those of the 8th AJCC TNM staging systems. The calibration curve for the probability of survival between prediction by nomogram and actual observation shows good agreement. The nomogram showed better accuracy than the 8th edition AJCC TNM staging.

Conclusion: The nomogram established can provide a more accurate prognosis for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

The contemporary trend in worsening prognosis of pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Primary acinar cell carcinoma (ACC) is a rare exocrine tumor of the pancreas with unclear clinical characteristics. Our goal was to determine the incidence and update the clinical characteristics and outcomes of ACC.

METHODS

Through the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we identified 252 patients with the latest diagnosis of ACC (2004-2016). The age-adjusted incidence (AAI) was calculated using the SEER*Stat Software version 8.3.6. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw survival curves and differences among them were compared by the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate factors that had independent predictive effects on the overall survival.

RESULTS

The AAI of pancreatic ACC was on the rise with the mean age at diagnosis of 63.79±14.79 years. Most patients (15.9%) had poorer differentiated tumors. The patients presented with distant stage were 54.4% compared with 53.1% between 1988 and 2003. The 1-, 2-, and 5-years survival rates for pancreatic ACC patients were 53.5%, 34.6%,17.5%, respectively (compared with 78.5%, 67.0%, and 42.8%, between 1988 and 2003). The multivariate COX analysis showed that the patient's age, surgery, chemotherapy, and summary stage, but not marital status were independent prognosis factors for ACC.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatic ACC is a highly malignant tumor with an increasing incidence in recent years. The rate of distant metastasis is increasing and the survival rate is worse than in the past, suggesting that it may require more aggressive treatment and follow-up. Surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy are all effective treatments, but prospective studies are still needed to verify them.

Prognostic value of KRAS mutation status in colorectal cancer patients: a population-based competing risk analysis

Background

To use competing analyses to estimate the prognostic value of KRAS mutation status in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and to build nomogram for CRC patients who had KRAS testing.

Method

The cohort was selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Cumulative incidence function model and multivariate Fine-Gray regression for proportional hazards modeling of the subdistribution hazard (SH) model were used to estimate the prognosis. An SH model based nomogram was built after a variable selection process. The validation of the nomogram was conducted by discrimination and calibration with 1,000 bootstraps.

Results

We included 8,983 CRC patients who had KRAS testing. SH model found that KRAS mutant patients had worse CSS than KRAS wild type patients in overall cohort (HR = 1.10 (95% CI [1.04–1.17]), p < 0.05), and in subgroups that comprised stage III CRC (HR = 1.28 (95% CI [1.09–1.49]), p < 0.05) and stage IV CRC (HR = 1.14 (95% CI [1.06–1.23]), p < 0.05), left side colon cancer (HR = 1.28 (95% CI [1.15–1.42]), p < 0.05) and rectal cancer (HR = 1.23 (95% CI [1.07–1.43]), p < 0.05). We built the SH model based nomogram, which showed good accuracy by internal validation of discrimination and calibration. Calibration curves represented good agreement between the nomogram predicted CRC caused death and actual observed CRC caused death. The time dependent area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was over 0.75 for the nomogram.

Conclusion

This is the first population based competing risk study on the association between KRAS mutation status and the CRC prognosis. The mutation of KRAS indicated a poor prognosis of CRC patients. The current competing risk nomogram would help physicians to predict cancer specific death of CRC patients who had KRAS testing.

Development and validation of a novel nomogram for predicting the prognosis of patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma

The survival prediction for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma by using the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system remains limited. A nomogram is a efficient tool that can be used to predict the outcome of patients with various types of malignancy. The present study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma. A total of 368 patients (258 in the training set and 110 in the validation set) who underwent pancreatic adenocarcinoma resection at the China National Cancer Center between January 2008 and October 2018 were included in the present study. The nomogram was established according to the results from Cox multivariate analysis, which was validated by discrimination and calibration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was determined to assess the accuracy of survival predictions. The results from multivariate analysis in the training set demonstrated that blood transfusion, T-stage, N-stage, tumor grade, capsule invasion, carbohydrate antigen 199, neutrophil percentage and adjuvant therapy were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS; all P<0.05). Subsequently, a nomogram predicting the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS rates, with favorable calibration, was established based on the independent prognostic factors. The concordance indices of the nomogram were higher compared with the TNM staging system in both training and validation sets. Furthermore, a clear risk stratification system based on the nomogram was used to classify patients into the three following groups: Low-risk group (≤168), moderate-risk group (168–255) and high-risk group (>255). The risk stratification system demonstrated an improved ability in predicting the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS rates compared with the TNM system (AUC, 0.758, 0.709 and 0.672 vs. AUC, 0.614, 0.604 and 0.568; all P<0.05). The present study developed and validated a nomogram for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma by including additional independent prognostic factors, including tumor marker, immune index, surgical information, pathological data and adjuvant therapy. Taken together, the results from the present study indicated an improved performance of the nomogram in predicting the prognosis of patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma compared with the TNM staging system.

Circular RNA ADAM9 facilitates the malignant behaviours of pancreatic cancer by sponging miR-217 and upregulating PRSS3 expression

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a highly lethal human cancer. We previously found that Serine protease 3 (PRSS3), as an oncogene, is significantly upregulated in PC. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential mechanism of PRSS3 dysregulation in PC. In this research, low miR-217 and high circ-ADAM9 expression were found in PC tissues and cell lines, which was closely associated with advanced clinical stage and lymph node metastasis. Patients with low miR-217 or high circ-ADAM9 expression had shorter survival time than those with high miR-217 or low circ-ADAM9 expression. Functionally, manipulation of miR-217 and circ-ADAM9 expression showed opposite effects on cell proliferation, migration and invasion. Stepwise mechanism studies indicated that circ-ADAM9 alleviated the inhibitory effect of miR-217 on PRSS3 by directly sponging miR-217 to increase the expression level of PRSS3, resulting in the activation of ERK/VEGF signalling pathway. In vivo, circ-ADAM9 silencing or miR-217 overexpression evidently retarded the growth of tumour, and the combination of them exhibited an additive inhibitory effect on tumourigenicity. Briefly, the ceRNA regulatory network of circ-ADAM9/miR-217/PRSS3 plays a pivotal role in PC progression by the regulation of ERK/VEGF signalling pathway.

Association of Cerebral Artery Stenosis With Post-stroke Depression at Discharge and 3 Months After Ischemic Stroke Onset

Background: Post-stroke depression (PSD) is one of the most common complications after stroke, which seriously affects patients' recovery outcome. Although vascular depression has been extensively studied, the relationship between cerebral artery stenosis and PSD has not been clarified so far. Methods: Two hundred ninety-eight patients with ischemic stroke (72 women, 226 men) with computed tomography angiography (CTA) or magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) were included in this study. Cerebral artery stenosis ≥50% was used as the cut-off value. The DSM-V diagnostic criteria of PSD was met and the 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAMD-17) score over 7 at discharge and 3 months after stroke onset was regarded as the primary outcome. The χ²-test, Mann-Whitney U-test, and t-test were used to check for statistical significance. Results: At discharge, Barthel index (p < 0.001), left middle cerebral artery stenosis (p = 0.019), drinking history (p = 0.048), basilar artery stenosis (p = 0.037) were significantly associated with PSD. At 3 months after ischemic stroke onset, Barthel index (p = 0.011), left middle cerebral artery stenosis (p = 0.012), female gender (p = 0.001) were significantly associated with PSD. Conclusions: The findings demonstrated that left middle cerebral artery and basilar artery stenosis are associated with PSD. It was suggested that cerebral artery stenosis was a risk factor of PSD and should be recognized and intervened early. Registration Number: ChiCTR-ROC-17013993.

Prognostic Model to Predict Cancer-Specific Survival for Patients With Gallbladder Carcinoma After Surgery: A Population-Based Analysis

Predicting the prognosis of gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) has always been important for improving survival. The objective of this study was to determine the risk factors of survival for patients with GBC after surgery and to develop predictive nomograms for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) using a large population-based cohort. We identified 2,762 patients with primary resectable GBC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for the period of 2004 to 2014 and another 152 patients with GBC after surgery from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) for the period of 1997 to 2017. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year cancer-specific mortalities were 37.2, 52.9, and 59.9%, while the competing mortalities were 5.8, 7.8, and 9.0%, respectively. Nomograms were developed to estimate OS and CSS, and these were validated by concordance indexes (C-indexes) and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The C-indexes of the nomograms for OS and CSS prediction were 0.704 and 0.732, respectively. In addition, compared with the 8th Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system, the newly established nomograms displayed higher areas under the ROC curves for OS and PFS prediction. The nomograms are well-validated and could thus aid individual clinical practice.

A Simple-to-Use Nomogram for Predicting the Survival of Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Objective: This study aimed to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing a preoperative consultation and doctors conducting a postoperative evaluation.

Methods: A total of 2,225 HCC patients confirmed with stage I or II were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between January 2010 and December 2015. The patients were randomly divided into two groups: a training group (n = 1,557) and a validation group (n = 668). Univariate and multivariate hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to select variables for the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was validated concerning its ability of discrimination and calibration and its clinical utility.

Results: Age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), race, the degree of differentiation, and therapy method were significantly associated with the prognosis of early HCC patients. Based on the AIC results, five variables (age, race, AFP, degree of differentiation, and therapy method) were incorporated into the nomogram. The concordance indexes of the simple nomogram in the training and validation groups were 0.707 (95% CI: 0.683–0.731) and 0.733 (95% CI: 0.699–0.767), respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the nomogram in the training and validation groups were 0.744 and 0.764, respectively, for predicting 3-year survival, and 0.786 and 0.794, respectively, for predicting 5-year survival. Calibration plots showed good consistency between the predictions of the nomogram and the actual observations in both the training and validation groups. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the simple nomogram was clinically useful, and the overall survival significantly differed between low- and high-risk groups divided by the median score of the nomogram in the training group (P < 0.001).

Conclusion: A simple-to-use nomogram based on a large population-based study is developed and validated, which is a conventional tool for doctors to facilitate the individual consultation of preoperative patients and the postoperative personalized evaluation.