A new prediction model for prognosis of patients with intermediate-stage HCC after conventional transarterial chemoembolization: an internally validated study

Development and Validation of a Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A-associated Prognostic Model for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

High serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels have been identified as an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to construct a VEGF-included prognostic model to accurately perform individualized predictions of survival probability for patients with unresectable HCC.

Patients and Methods

From October 2018 to March 2021, 182 consecutive newly diagnosed patients with unresectable HCC were retrospectively enrolled. Baseline serum VEGF-A and other characteristics were collected for all patients. Univariate Cox regression analysis and LASSO regression model were applied to develop the prognostic model, enhanced bootstrap method with 100 replicates was performed to validate its discrimination and calibration. We compared the final model with China Liver Cancer (CNLC) stage, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and the model without the "VEGF". Finally, the established model was stratified by age.

Results

The VEGF-associated prognostic model we established has high accuracy with an overall C-index of 0.7892 after correction for optimistic estimates. The area under the curve (AUC) of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year after correction were 0.843, 0.860, 0.833, respectively, and the calibration of the model was 0.1153, 0.1514, and 0.1711, respectively. The final model showed significant improvement in predicting OS when compared to the other models according to Harrell's C-index, The AUC of the time-dependent ROC, area under the decision curve analysis (AUDC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and continuous net reclassification index (NRI).

Conclusion

The VEGF-associated prognostic model may help to predict the survival probabilities of HCC patients with favorable performance and discrimination. However, further validation is required since we only verified this model using internal but not external data.

Plasma arginase-1 as a predictive marker for early transarterial chemoembolization refractoriness in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma

Objective

To explore the relationship between plasma arginase-1 (ARG1) and early transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) refractoriness in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and develop nomograms for predicting early TACE refractoriness.

Methods

A total of 200 patients with HCC, treated with TACE, were included in the study, including 120 in the training set and 80 in the validation set. Pre-treatment enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to detected the plasma ARG1 levels of the patient, and independent predictors of early TACE refractoriness were determined using a multivariate logistic regression model, based on which a predictive model was developed using a nomogram.

Results

Risk of early TACE refractoriness was negatively correlated with plasma ARG1 levels, and multivariate logistic analysis showed tumour size (OR = 1.138, 95% CI = 1.006-1.288, P = 0.041), multiple tumors (OR=4.374, 95% CI = 1.189-16.089, P = 0.026), platelet count (OR = 0.990, 95% CI = 0.980-0.999, P = 0.036), and plasma ARG1 levels (OR = 0.209, 95% CI = 0.079-0.551, P = 0.002) to be independent prognostic factors for early TACE refractoriness.The AUC value for the nomogram of the training cohort was 0.786 (95% CI = 0.702–0.870), and the validation set AUC value was 0.833 (95% CI = 0.791-0.875).The decision curve analysis suggested that the nomogram had good clinical utility.

Conclusion

High plasma ARG1 expression was associated with a lower incidence of early TACE refractoriness. The nomogram constructed based on four independent prognostic factors could facilitate an individualised prediction of the incidence of early TACE refractoriness.

Nomogram for prediction of long-term survival with hepatocellular carcinoma based on NK cell counts

INTRODUCTION

Among all immune cells, natural killer (NK) cells play an important role as the first line of defense against tumor. The purpose of our study is to observe whether the NK cell counts can predict the overall survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

To develop a novel model, from January 2010 to June 2015, HCC patients enrolled in Beijing Ditan hospital were divided into training and validation cohort. Cox multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the independent risk factors for 1-year, 3-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) of patients with HCC, and the nomogram was used to establish the prediction model. In addition, the decision tree was established to verify the contribution of NK cell counts to the survival of patients with HCC.

RESULTS

The model used in predicting overall survival of HCC included six variables (namely, NK cell counts, albumin (ALB) level, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), tumor number and treatment). The C-index of nomogram model in HCC patients predicting 1-year, 3-year and 5-year overall survival was 0.858, 0.788 and 0.782 respectively, which was higher than tumor-lymph node-metastasis (TNM) staging system, Okuda, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, the Chinese University Prognostic Index (CUPI) and Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) scores (p < 0.001). The decision tree showed the specific 5-year OS probability of HCC patients under different risk factors, and found that NK cell counts were the third in the column contribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study emphasizes the utility of NK cell counts for exploring interactions between long-term survival of HCC patients and predictor variables.

Type of Necrosis Influences Prognosis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After the First Transarterial Chemoembolization

BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common tumors. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the first choice of treatment for intermediate HCC and an important treatment option for advanced HCC. This retrospective study compared the prognosis between patients showing coagulative necrosis and patients showing liquefactive necrosis after the first TACE procedure. MATERIAL AND METHODS We divided 171 patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) Stage B or C HCC into 2 groups; a coagulative necrosis group (79 patients) and a liquefactive necrosis group (92 patients). The coagulative and liquefactive necroses were identified by computed tomography after the first TACE procedure. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to identify the differences in the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) between the 2 groups, and the associated risk factors and safety of TACE were analyzed. RESULTS The median OS durations were 23.27±1.40 months and 8.83±2.15 months (P=0.004) and the median PFS durations were 9.33±0.96 months and 3.70±0.44 months (P=0.002) in the coagulative necrosis and liquefactive necrosis groups, respectively. Intrahepatic in situ progression, new intrahepatic metastasis, and extrahepatic progression occurred significantly earlier in the liquefactive necrosis group (P<0.05). Univariate analysis and multivariate analyses showed liquefactive necrosis was the main risk factor for OS. There was no significant difference in the hepatic function impairment or post-embolism syndrome after TACE. CONCLUSIONS After the first TACE procedure, the patients with liquefactive necrosis experienced recurrence and metastasis earlier and had a worse prognosis. Therefore, these patients should be considered for earlier administration of targeted therapies or immunotherapies after TACE.

Transarterial Chemoembolization Combined With Hepatectomy for the Treatment of Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is currently the recommended treatment for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Liver resection (LR) may be an effective option, although recurrences are not uncommon. TACE prior to LR has been proposed as an even better alternative.

Methods

Patients with intermediate-stage HCC who underwent curative resection were enrolled between January 2007 and December 2015. We compared overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) for the 2 groups using the Kaplan-Meier method, and we determined independent risk factors for death and recurrence using multivariate regression analyses.

Results

A total of 488 patients with HCC at BCLC B (265 patients with LR, 223 patients with TACE+LR) enrolled from our center. Mean follow-up was 40.2 (range, 3.0-128.7) months. For patients receiving TACE+LR and LR, estimated 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 90.6% and 73.3%, 61.7% and 43.5%, and 52.9% and 33.8%, respectively (all P < 0.001) and estimated 1-, 2-, and 3-year RFS rates were 54.6% and 39.4%, 41.4% and 29.4%, and 36.3% and 26.3%, respectively (P < 0.001, P = 0.002, and P = 0.008, respectively). Significant independent predictors of poor OS were more than 3 (vs. 3 or fewer) tumors (HR=2.19, 95% CI 1.69-2.84), non-anatomical (vs. anatomical) hepatectomy (HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.66), microscopic vascular invasion (HR=1.46, 95% CI 1.15-.90), cirrhosis (HR=2.41, 95%CI 1.88-3.01), and intraoperative blood transfusion (HR=1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.66).

Conclusion

Preoperative TACE with LR may result in better oncological outcomes than either TACE or LR alone, without a substantial increase in morbidity, and could be considered an effective combination treatment for intermediate-stage HCC.

Prediction Model for Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Response to Transarterial Chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

The outcome of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is greatly heterogeneous. Current means for predicting HCC response to TACE are lacking.

PURPOSE

To investigate whether the combination of parameters derived from amide proton transfer (APT) and intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) imaging, and morphological characteristics of tumor can establish a better prediction model than the univariant model for HCC response to TACE.

STUDY TYPE

Prospective.

SUBJECTS

56 patients with intermediate-stage HCC (50 males and six females).

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCES

3.0T; T₂ -weighted-fast spin echo, 3D liver acquisition with volume flex, single-shot fast spin echo-planar imaging (EPI), spin echo-EPI.

ASSESSMENT

Pretreatment APT signal intensities (SIs), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), true molecular diffusion coefficient (D), pseudodiffusion coefficient (D*), and perfusion fraction (f) for tumor, peritumoral, and normal tissues were measured. Follow-up MRI scanning was performed, and the patients were classified as responders or nonresponders based on the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) criteria.

STATISTICAL TESTS

The imaging parameters were compared among the three tissues and between the two groups using analysis of variance (ANOVA) or two-sample t-test. The prediction model's variables were derived from univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to explore the predictive performance.

RESULTS

Based on the logistic regression analysis results, we established a prediction model that integrated the APT SI and D values in the tumor tissue and the tumor size. ROC analyses revealed that the model was better able to predict tumor response to TACE (area under the ROC curve = 0.851) than the individual parameters on their own.

DATA CONCLUSION

A prediction model incorporating pretreatment APT SI, D in the tumor tissue and tumor size may be useful for predicting the response of intermediate-stage HCC to TACE.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 1 J. MAGN. RESON. IMAGING 2020;52:1657-1667.