Informing policy makers on the efficiency of population level tobacco control interventions in Asia: A systematic review of model-based economic evaluations

Cost-Effectiveness of Four Tobacco Control Interventions in Mongolia

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to quantify the cost-effectiveness of four tobacco control interventions: Tobacco taxation, mass media campaigns, school programs, and cessation support, and to illustrate how available evaluation tools can be adapted to the local setting.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used the dynamic population health modeling-health impact assessment tool to project the future smoking prevalence associated with the interventions and to simulate the resulting smoking-related disease burden over time. Applying the most recent available national Mongolian data as input, the costs and effects of four interventions were compared to a business-as-usual scenario, resulting in costs per life year gained and per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted.

RESULTS

Three years after implementation, all interventions reduce the prevalence of current smoking, with the strongest reduction observed with the increase in tobacco tax (5.1% points), followed by mass media campaigns (1.6% points), school programs (1.3% points), and cessation support interventions (0.6% points). School programs were a cost-saving tobacco control intervention compared to current practice in Mongolia, while the other programs resulted in additional costs compared to business as usual. Compared to the World Health Organization (WHO) thresholds, all interventions would be considered "very cost-effective" in terms of cost per DALY averted (below US$ 4295 per DALY averted) in Mongolia.

CONCLUSIONS

Large-scale interventions such as taxation and mass media campaigns result in both cost-effectiveness and important health benefits in relation to intervention costs. Reducing the prevalence of smoking among the male population would be particularly worthwhile in Mongolia.

IMPLICATIONS

This study shows that in Mongolia school programs were a cost-saving intervention, while the cost-effectiveness ratios were US$ 25 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for mass media campaigns, US$ 74 for taxation, and US$ 1961 for cessation support interventions. Compared to the WHO thresholds, all interventions would be considered "very cost-effective" in terms of expenses per DALY averted ( Collapse

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MESH Headings

• Humans
• Male
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Tobacco Control
• Mongolia/epidemiology
• Smoking/epidemiology
• Cost of Illness

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Grants

• Mongolian government and the UMCG

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Affiliation(s)

Ariuntuya Tuvdendorj Department of Health Policy, School of Public Health, Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
Talitha Feenstra Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Faculty of Science and Engineering, Groningen Research Institute of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Faculty of Science and Engineering, Centre for Nutrition, Prevention, and Health Services, Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Erik Buskens Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

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Reducing the Burden of Disease Through Tobacco Taxes in Mongolia: A Health Impact Analysis Using a Dynamic Public Health Model

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Smoking is the leading risk factor for many chronic diseases. The quantitative analysis of potential health gains from reduced smoking is important for establishing priorities in Mongolia's health policy. This study quantifies the effect of tobacco-tax increases on future smoking prevalence and the associated smoking-related burden of disease in Mongolia.

METHODS

The dynamic model for health impact assessment (DYNAMO-HIA) tool was used. The most recent data were used as input for evaluating tobacco-taxation scenarios. Demographic data were taken from the Mongolian Statistical Information Services. Smoking data came from a representative population-based STEPS survey, and smoking-related disease data were obtained from the health-information database of Mongolia's National Health Center. Simulation was used to evaluate various levels of one-time price increases on tobacco products (25% and 75%) in Mongolia. Conservative interpretation suggests that the population will eventually adjust to the higher tobacco price and return to baseline smoking behaviors.

RESULTS

Over a three-year period, smoking prevalence would be reduced by 1.2% points, corresponding to almost 40 thousand smokers at the population level for a price increase of 75%, compared to the baseline scenario. Projected health benefits of this scenario suggest that more than 137 thousand quality adjusted of life years would be gained by avoiding smoking-related diseases within a population of three million over a 30-year period.

DISCUSSION

Prevention through effective tobacco-control policy could yield considerable gains in population health in Mongolia. Compared to current policy, tax increases must be higher to have a significant effect on population health.

IMPLICATIONS

Tobacco taxation is an effective policy for reducing the harm of tobacco smoking, while benefiting population health in countries where the tobacco epidemic is still in an early stage. Smoking prevalence and smoking behaviors in these countries differ from those in Western countries. Reducing the uptake of smoking among young people could be a particularly worthwhile benefit of tobacco-tax increases.

Informing policy makers on the efficiency of population level tobacco control interventions in Asia: A systematic review of model-based economic evaluations

BACKGROUND

Economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions support decisions regarding resource allocation in public health policy. Our systematic review was aimed at identifying potential bias in decision models used to estimate the long-term costs and effects of population-based tobacco control interventions in Asia.

METHODS

We included studies conducted in Asian countries and using a modelling technique to evaluate the economic impacts of one or more population-based tobacco interventions in line with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). We assessed the structure, input parameters, and risk of bias for each model, and performed a narrative synthesis of the included studies.

RESULTS

Nine model-based economic evaluation studies of population-based tobacco interventions were identified. About 60% of the criteria for reporting quality were met in all studies, indicating that reporting generally lacked transparency. The studies were highly heterogeneous in terms of the scope, types, and structures of their models and the quality of input parameters. One-third of the models applied in the studies scored a high risk of bias, with problems mostly falling into the following categories: model type, time horizons, and smoking transition probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

More data are needed to provide high-quality evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of tobacco control policies in Asia. Strong evidence at the country level hinges on the availability of accurate estimates of the effects of the interventions, the relative risks of smoking, and the price elasticity of the demand for tobacco. Simple transfers of models built in Western populations do not suffice.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD 42019141679.