PANCREATIC CANCER IN BRAZIL: MORTALITY TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS UNTIL 2029

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer is one of the main cancer-related causes of death in developed countries, and one of the most lethal malignant neoplasms. This type of cancer is classified as the ninth most frequent in the world.

OBJECTIVE

Analyze temporal trends for pancreatic cancer in Brazil in the period 2000-2014 and calculate mortality projections for the period 2015-2029.

METHODS

Ecological study, with temporal series, based on information provided by the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Analysis included deaths due to pancreatic malignant neoplasms in Brazil in the period 2000-2014, and analyzed according to sex, age group and Brazilian geographic regions. Projections were made until 2029 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software). Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2014, there were 112,533 deaths due to pancreatic cancer in Brazil. Age-standardised rates was 5.1 deaths/100,000 men and 3.81 deaths/100,000 women. The highest rates were registered for the Midwest region, for both genders. Projections indicated that for the five-year period 2025-2029 there will be increased mortality rates for men in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Joinpoint analysis for Brazil did not reveal significant increases for women (APC=0.4%; 95% CI: -0.2; 1.0), however, there was a significant increasing mortality trend for men (APC= 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.6-7.0) in the period 2000-2004, followed by a stable period, an then another period of significant increases after 2010. These figures are mostly explained by variations in the Brazilian demographic structure.

CONCLUSION

Pancreatic cancer mortality is unequally distributed across Brazilian regions and genders, and during the next two decades the differences will be accentuated.

Incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer on a rapid rise in Taiwan, 1999-2012

BACKGROUND

Accumulating data has revealed a rapidly rising incidence of pancreatic cancer in Western countries, but convincing evidence from the East remains sparse. We aimed to quantify how the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy changed over time in Taiwan, and to develop future projection for the next decade.

METHODS

This nationwide population-based study analyzed the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Registry to calculate the annual incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy from 1999 to 2012 in this country. The secular trend of the incidence was also examined by data from the National Health Insurance Research Database.

RESULTS

A total of 21,986 incident cases of pancreatic cancer and 20,720 related deaths occurred during the study period. The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 3.7 per 100,000 in 1999 to 5.0 per 100,000 in 2012, with a significant rising trend (P<0.01). The increase was nationwide, consistently across subgroups stratified by age, gender, geographic region, and urbanization. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database corroborated the rise of incident pancreatic cancer. Mortality also increased with time, with the age-standardized rate rising from 3.5 per 100,000 in 1999 to 4.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (P<0.01). In accordance with the incidence, the mortality trend was consistent in all subgroups. Both the incidence and mortality were projected to further increase by approximately 20% from 2012 to 2027.

CONCLUSION

The incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer have been rapidly rising and presumably will continue to rise in Taiwan.