Historical Redlining and Present-Day Nonsuicide Firearm Fatalities

Connecting Past to Present: Does Historical Redlining Affect Current Life Expectancy?

INTRODUCTION

Previous research has documented a strong relationship between currently living in the redlined zones of the 1930s and suffering from a higher prevalence of disease. However, little is known about the relationship between historical redlining, modern-day redlining, and current resident health outcomes. This paper aimed to simultaneously model the associations between both historical redlining and modern-day redlining on current health outcomes.

METHODS

In this paper, we used structural equation modeling to uncover relationships between current and historical redlining practices and modern-day life expectancy, exploring two levels of potential mediating factors: (1) racial segregation and structural racism; and (2) mediating health outcomes. We analyzed data from 11,661 census tracts throughout the United States using historical redlining data from 1940, modern redlining data from 2010 to 2017, racial segregation and structural racism indices from 2010 to 2019, health outcome data from 2021 to 2022, and life expectancy data from 2010 to 2015. Historical redlining was measured using Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) ratings, which ranged from 1.0 for favorable neighborhoods ("greenlined") to 4.0 for unfavorable ("redlined") neighborhoods. Modern-day redlining was measured using Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, which were transformed into four quartiles, ranging from level 1 (low mortgage rejection rates) to level 4 (high mortgage rejection rates).

RESULTS

We found a significant relationship between historic redlining and current life expectancy, with average life expectancy decreasing steadily from 80.7 years in HOLC 1 tracts to 75.7 years in HOLC 4 tracts, a differential of 5.0 years between the greenlined and redlined tracts. We also found a significant relationship between modern-day redlining and current life expectancy, with average life expectancy decreasing steadily from 79.9 years in HMDA 1 tracts to 73.5 years in HMDA 4 tracts, a differential of 6.4 years. In the structural equation model, historical redlining had a total effect of decreasing life expectancy by 1.18 years for each increase of one in the HOLC rating. Modern-day redlining had a total effect of decreasing life expectancy by 1.89 years for each increase of one in the HMDA quartile.

CONCLUSION

This paper provides new evidence that the legacy of redlining is not relegated to the history books but rather is a present and pressing public health issue today.

Historical Redlining and Contemporary Violent Victimization Over the Life Course

INTRODUCTION

This study assesses the relationship between living in historically redlined communities and the incidence of violent victimization and examines differences in this relationship across race and ethnicity.

METHODS

Data are from the U.S. National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) from Waves I (1994-1995; ages 12-17), III (2001; ages 18-26), IV (2008-2009; ages 24-32), and V (2016-2018; ages 34-44). Multi-level, within-between regression models were used to assess the relationship between residence in historically redlined areas and violent victimization from adolescence to adulthood. The study includes 8,266 participants, and data analysis was conducted in 2024.

RESULTS

Respondents who lived in redlined areas throughout adolescence and adulthood reported a 4.8% higher average probability of violent victimization relative to those who never lived in redlined areas. Respondents who moved from a non-redlined to a redlined area across waves also reported a 2.2% higher probability of victimization, on average. Although Black and Hispanic respondents were significantly more likely than their White peers to live in a redlined area and report violent victimization at each stage of the life course, the probability of experiencing victimization while living in a redlined area was similar between racial and ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the profound and enduring consequences of New Deal-era redlining policies for present-day safety, emphasizing the urgent need to confront and rectify historical injustices to enhance contemporary safety and well-being.