Quantifying chromosomal instability from intratumoral karyotype diversity using agent-based modeling and Bayesian inference

Agent-based modeling in cancer biomedicine: applications and tools for calibration and validation

Computational models are not just appealing because they can simulate and predict the development of biological phenomena across multiple spatial and temporal scales, but also because they can integrate information from well-established in vitro and in vivo models and test new hypotheses in cancer biomedicine. Agent-based models and simulations are especially interesting candidates among computational modeling procedures in cancer research due to the capability to, for instance, recapitulate the dynamics of neoplasia and tumor - host interactions. Yet, the absence of methods to validate the consistency of the results across scales can hinder adoption by turning fine-tuned models into black boxes. This review compiles relevant literature that explores strategies to leverage high-fidelity simulations of multi-scale, or multi-level, cancer models with a focus on verification approached as simulation calibration. We consolidate our review with an outline of modern approaches for agent-based models' validation and provide an ambitious outlook toward rigorous and reliable calibration.

HIV-1 Vif disrupts phosphatase feedback regulation at the kinetochore, leading to a pronounced pseudo-metaphase arrest

Virion Infectivity Factor (Vif) of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) targets and degrades cellular APOBEC3 proteins, key regulators of intrinsic and innate antiretroviral immune responses, thereby facilitating HIV-1 infection. While Vif's role in degrading APOBEC3G is well-studied, Vif is also known to cause cell cycle arrest, but the detailed nature of Vif's effects on the cell cycle has yet to be delineated. In this study, we employed high-temporal single-cell live imaging and super-resolution microscopy to monitor individual cells during Vif-induced cell cycle arrest. Our findings reveal that Vif does not affect the G2/M boundary as previously thought. Instead, Vif triggers a unique and robust pseudo-metaphase arrest, distinct from the mild prometaphase arrest induced by Vpr. During this arrest, chromosomes align properly and form the metaphase plate, but later lose alignment, resulting in polar chromosomes. Notably, Vif, unlike Vpr, significantly reduces the levels of both Protein Phosphatase 1 (PP1) and 2A (PP2A) at kinetochores, which regulate chromosome-microtubule interactions. These results unveil a novel role for Vif in kinetochore regulation that governs the spatial organization of chromosomes during mitosis.

Low-pass whole genome sequencing of circulating tumor cells to evaluate chromosomal instability in triple-negative breast cancer

Chromosomal Instability (CIN) is a common and evolving feature in breast cancer. Large-scale Transitions (LSTs), defined as chromosomal breakages leading to gains or losses of at least 10 Mb, have recently emerged as a metric of CIN due to their standardized definition across platforms. Herein, we report the feasibility of using low-pass Whole Genome Sequencing to assess LSTs, copy number alterations (CNAs) and their relationship in individual circulating tumor cells (CTCs) of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients. Initial assessment of LSTs in breast cancer cell lines consistently showed wide-ranging values (median 22, range 4-33, mean 21), indicating heterogeneous CIN. Subsequent analysis of CTCs revealed LST values (median 3, range 0-18, mean 5), particularly low during treatment, suggesting temporal changes in CIN levels. CNAs averaged 30 (range 5-49), with loss being predominant. As expected, CTCs with higher LSTs values exhibited increased CNAs. A CNA-based classifier of individual patient-derived CTCs, developed using machine learning, identified genes associated with both DNA proliferation and repair, such as RB1, MYC, and EXO1, as significant predictors of CIN. The model demonstrated a high predictive accuracy with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.89. Overall, these findings suggest that sequencing CTCs holds the potential to facilitate CIN evaluation and provide insights into its dynamic nature over time, with potential implications for monitoring TNBC progression through iterative assessments.

Targeting chromosomal instability in patients with cancer

Chromosomal instability (CIN) is a hallmark of cancer and a driver of metastatic dissemination, therapeutic resistance, and immune evasion. CIN is present in 60-80% of human cancers and poses a formidable therapeutic challenge as evidenced by the lack of clinically approved drugs that directly target CIN. This limitation in part reflects a lack of well-defined druggable targets as well as a dearth of tractable biomarkers enabling direct assessment and quantification of CIN in patients with cancer. Over the past decade, however, our understanding of the cellular mechanisms and consequences of CIN has greatly expanded, revealing novel therapeutic strategies for the treatment of chromosomally unstable tumours as well as new methods of assessing the dynamic nature of chromosome segregation errors that define CIN. In this Review, we describe advances that have shaped our understanding of CIN from a translational perspective, highlighting both challenges and opportunities in the development of therapeutic interventions for patients with chromosomally unstable cancers.

Detecting branching rate heterogeneity in multifurcating trees with applications in lineage tracing data

Understanding cellular birth rate differences is crucial for predicting cancer progression and interpreting tumor-derived genetic data. Lineage tracing experiments enable detailed reconstruction of cellular genealogies, offering new opportunities to measure branching rate heterogeneity. However, the lineage tracing process can introduce complex tree features that complicate this effort. Here, we examine tree characteristics in lineage tracing-derived genealogies and find that editing window placement leads to multifurcations at a tree's root or tips. We propose several ways in which existing tree topology-based metrics can be extended to test for rate heterogeneity on trees even in the presence of lineage-tracing associated distortions. Although these methods vary in power and robustness, a test based on theJ 1 statistic effectively detects branching rate heterogeneity in simulated lineage tracing data. Tests based on other common statistics ( s ^ and the Sackin index) show interior performance toJ 1 . We apply our validated methods to xenograft experimental data and find widespread rate heterogeneity across multiple study systems. Our results demonstrate the potential of tree topology statistics in analyzing lineage tracing data, and highlight the challenges associated with adapting phylogenetic methods to these systems.

Inference of chromosome selection parameters and missegregation rate in cancer from DNA-sequencing data

Aneuploidy is frequently observed in cancers and has been linked to poor patient outcome. Analysis of aneuploidy in DNA-sequencing (DNA-seq) data necessitates untangling the effects of the Copy Number Aberration (CNA) occurrence rates and the selection coefficients that act upon the resulting karyotypes. We introduce a parameter inference algorithm that takes advantage of both bulk and single-cell DNA-seq cohorts. The method is based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and utilizes CINner, our recently introduced simulation algorithm of chromosomal instability in cancer. We examine three groups of statistics to summarize the data in the ABC routine: (A) Copy Number-based measures, (B) phylogeny tip statistics, and (C) phylogeny balance indices. Using these statistics, our method can recover both the CNA probabilities and selection parameters from ground truth data, and performs well even for data cohorts of relatively small sizes. We find that only statistics in groups A and C are well-suited for identifying CNA probabilities, and only group A carries the signals for estimating selection parameters. Moreover, the low number of CNA events at large scale compared to cell counts in single-cell samples means that statistics in group B cannot be estimated accurately using phylogeny reconstruction algorithms at the chromosome level. As data from both bulk and single-cell DNA-sequencing techniques becomes increasingly available, our inference framework promises to facilitate the analysis of distinct cancer types, differentiation between selection and neutral drift, and prediction of cancer clonal dynamics.

Oncotree2vec - a method for embedding and clustering of tumor mutation trees

MOTIVATION

Understanding the genomic heterogeneity of tumors is an important task in computational oncology, especially in the context of finding personalized treatments based on the genetic profile of each patient's tumor. Tumor clustering that takes into account the temporal order of genetic events, as represented by tumor mutation trees, is a powerful approach for grouping together patients with genetically and evolutionarily similar tumors and can provide insights into discovering tumor subtypes, for more accurate clinical diagnosis and prognosis.

RESULTS

Here, we propose oncotree2vec, a method for clustering tumor mutation trees by learning vector representations of mutation trees that capture the different relationships between subclones in an unsupervised manner. Learning low-dimensional tree embeddings facilitates the visualization of relations between trees in large cohorts and can be used for downstream analyses, such as deep learning approaches for single-cell multi-omics data integration. We assessed the performance and the usefulness of our method in three simulation studies and on two real datasets: a cohort of 43 trees from six cancer types with different branching patterns corresponding to different modes of spatial tumor evolution and a cohort of 123 AML mutation trees.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

https://github.com/cbg-ethz/oncotree2vec.

The yin and yang of chromosomal instability in prostate cancer

Metastatic prostate cancer remains an incurable lethal disease. Studies indicate that prostate cancer accumulates genomic changes during disease progression and displays the highest levels of chromosomal instability (CIN) across all types of metastatic tumours. CIN, which refers to ongoing chromosomal DNA gain or loss during mitosis, and derived aneuploidy, are known to be associated with increased tumour heterogeneity, metastasis and therapy resistance in many tumour types. Paradoxically, high CIN levels are also proposed to be detrimental to tumour cell survival, suggesting that cancer cells must develop adaptive mechanisms to ensure their survival. In the context of prostate cancer, studies indicate that CIN has a key role in disease progression and might also offer a therapeutic vulnerability that can be pharmacologically targeted. Thus, a comprehensive evaluation of the causes and consequences of CIN in prostate cancer, its contribution to aggressive advanced disease and a better understanding of the acquired CIN tolerance mechanisms can translate into new tumour classifications, biomarker development and therapeutic strategies.

A survey of chromosomal instability measures across mechanistic models

Chromosomal instability (CIN) is the persistent reshuffling of cancer karyotypes via chromosome mis-segregation during cell division. In cancer, CIN exists at varying levels that have differential effects on tumor progression. However, mis-segregation rates remain challenging to assess in human cancer despite an array of available measures. We evaluated measures of CIN by comparing quantitative methods using specific, inducible phenotypic CIN models of chromosome bridges, pseudobipolar spindles, multipolar spindles, and polar chromosomes. For each, we measured CIN fixed and timelapse fluorescence microscopy, chromosome spreads, six-centromere FISH, bulk transcriptomics, and single-cell DNA sequencing (scDNAseq). As expected, microscopy of tumor cells in live and fixed samples significantly correlated (R = 0.72; P < 0.001) and sensitively detect CIN. Cytogenetics approaches include chromosome spreads and 6-centromere FISH, which also significantly correlate (R = 0.76; P < 0.001) but had limited sensitivity for lower rates of CIN. Bulk genomic DNA signatures and bulk transcriptomic scores, CIN70 and HET70, did not detect CIN. By contrast, scDNAseq detects CIN with high sensitivity, and significantly correlates with imaging methods (R = 0.82; P < 0.001). In summary, single-cell methods such as imaging, cytogenetics, and scDNAseq can measure CIN, with the latter being the most comprehensive method accessible to clinical samples. To facilitate the comparison of CIN rates between phenotypes and methods, we propose a standardized unit of CIN: Mis-segregations per Diploid Division. This systematic analysis of common CIN measures highlights the superiority of single-cell methods and provides guidance for measuring CIN in the clinical setting.

CINner: modeling and simulation of chromosomal instability in cancer at single-cell resolution

Cancer development is characterized by chromosomal instability, manifesting in frequent occurrences of different genomic alteration mechanisms ranging in extent and impact. Mathematical modeling can help evaluate the role of each mutational process during tumor progression, however existing frameworks can only capture certain aspects of chromosomal instability (CIN). We present CINner, a mathematical framework for modeling genomic diversity and selection during tumor evolution. The main advantage of CINner is its flexibility to incorporate many genomic events that directly impact cellular fitness, from driver gene mutations to copy number alterations (CNAs), including focal amplifications and deletions, missegregations and whole-genome duplication (WGD). We apply CINner to find chromosome-arm selection parameters that drive tumorigenesis in the absence of WGD in chromosomally stable cancer types. We found that the selection parameters predict WGD prevalence among different chromosomally unstable tumors, hinting that the selective advantage of WGD cells hinges on their tolerance for aneuploidy and escape from nullisomy. Direct application of CINner to model the WGD proportion and fraction of genome altered (FGA) further uncovers the increase in CNA probabilities associated with WGD in each cancer type. CINner can also be utilized to study chromosomally stable cancer types, by applying a selection model based on driver gene mutations and focal amplifications or deletions. Finally, we used CINner to analyze the impact of CNA probabilities, chromosome selection parameters, tumor growth dynamics and population size on cancer fitness and heterogeneity. We expect that CINner will provide a powerful modeling tool for the oncology community to quantify the impact of newly uncovered genomic alteration mechanisms on shaping tumor progression and adaptation.

Impact of Resistance on Therapeutic Design: A Moran Model of Cancer Growth

Resistance of cancers to treatments, such as chemotherapy, largely arise due to cell mutations. These mutations allow cells to resist apoptosis and inevitably lead to recurrence and often progression to more aggressive cancer forms. Sustained-low dose therapies are being considered as an alternative over maximum tolerated dose treatments, whereby a smaller drug dosage is given over a longer period of time. However, understanding the impact that the presence of treatment-resistant clones may have on these new treatment modalities is crucial to validating them as a therapeutic avenue. In this study, a Moran process is used to capture stochastic mutations arising in cancer cells, inferring treatment resistance. The model is used to predict the probability of cancer recurrence given varying treatment modalities. The simulations predict that sustained-low dose therapies would be virtually ineffective for a cancer with a non-negligible probability of developing a sub-clone with resistance tendencies. Furthermore, calibrating the model to in vivo measurements for breast cancer treatment with Herceptin, the model suggests that standard treatment regimens are ineffective in this mouse model. Using a simple Moran model, it is possible to explore the likelihood of treatment success given a non-negligible probability of treatment resistant mutations and suggest more robust therapeutic schedules.

The reckoning of chromosomal instability: past, present, future

Quantitative measures of CIN are crucial to our understanding of its role in cancer. Technological advances have changed the way CIN is quantified, offering increased accuracy and insight. Here, we review measures of CIN through its rise as a field, discuss considerations for its measurement, and look forward to future quantification of CIN.

Chromosomal instability in aneuploid acute lymphoblastic leukemia associates with disease progression

Chromosomal instability (CIN) lies at the core of cancer development leading to aneuploidy, chromosomal copy-number heterogeneity (chr-CNH) and ultimately, unfavorable clinical outcomes. Despite its ubiquity in cancer, the presence of CIN in childhood B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (cB-ALL), the most frequent pediatric cancer showing high frequencies of aneuploidy, remains unknown. Here, we elucidate the presence of CIN in aneuploid cB-ALL subtypes using single-cell whole-genome sequencing of primary cB-ALL samples and by generating and functionally characterizing patient-derived xenograft models (cB-ALL-PDX). We report higher rates of CIN across aneuploid than in euploid cB-ALL that strongly correlate with intraclonal chr-CNH and overall survival in mice. This association was further supported by in silico mathematical modeling. Moreover, mass-spectrometry analyses of cB-ALL-PDX revealed a "CIN signature" enriched in mitotic-spindle regulatory pathways, which was confirmed by RNA-sequencing of a large cohort of cB-ALL samples. The link between the presence of CIN in aneuploid cB-ALL and disease progression opens new possibilities for patient stratification and offers a promising new avenue as a therapeutic target in cB-ALL treatment.

Disentangling the roles of aneuploidy, chromosomal instability and tumour heterogeneity in developing resistance to cancer therapies

Aneuploidy is defined as the cellular state of having a number of chromosomes that deviates from a multiple of the normal haploid chromosome number of a given organism. Aneuploidy can be present in a static state: Down syndrome individuals stably maintain an extra copy of chromosome 21 in their cells. In cancer cells, however, aneuploidy is usually present in combination with chromosomal instability (CIN) which leads to a continual generation of new chromosomal alterations and the development of intratumour heterogeneity (ITH). The prevalence of cells with specific chromosomal alterations is further shaped by evolutionary selection, for example, during the administration of cancer therapies. Aneuploidy, CIN and ITH have each been individually associated with poor prognosis in cancer, and a wealth of evidence suggests they contribute, either alone or in combination, to cancer therapy resistance by providing a reservoir of potential resistant states, or the ability to rapidly evolve resistance. A full understanding of the contribution and interplay between aneuploidy, CIN and ITH is required to tackle therapy resistance in cancer patients. However, these characteristics often co-occur and are intrinsically linked, presenting a major challenge to defining their individual contributions. Moreover, their accurate measurement in both experimental and clinical settings is a technical hurdle. Here, we attempt to deconstruct the contribution of the individual and combined roles of aneuploidy, CIN and ITH to therapy resistance in cancer, and outline emerging approaches to measure and disentangle their roles as a step towards integrating these principles into cancer therapeutic strategy.

A survey of CIN measures across mechanistic models

Chromosomal instability (CIN) is the persistent reshuffling of cancer karyotypes via chromosome mis-segregation during cell division. In cancer, CIN exists at varying levels that have differential effects on tumor progression. However, mis-segregation rates remain challenging to assess in human cancer despite an array of available measures. We evaluated measures of CIN by comparing quantitative methods using specific, inducible phenotypic CIN models of chromosome bridges, pseudobipolar spindles, multipolar spindles, and polar chromosomes. For each, we measured CIN fixed and timelapse fluorescence microscopy, chromosome spreads, 6-centromere FISH, bulk transcriptomics, and single cell DNA sequencing (scDNAseq). As expected, microscopy of tumor cells in live and fixed samples correlated well (R=0.77; p<0.01) and sensitively detect CIN. Cytogenetics approaches include chromosome spreads and 6-centromere FISH, which also correlate well (R=0.77; p<0.01) but had limited sensitivity for lower rates of CIN. Bulk genomic DNA signatures and bulk transcriptomic scores, CIN70 and HET70, did not detect CIN. By contrast, single-cell DNA sequencing (scDNAseq) detects CIN with high sensitivity, and correlates very well with imaging methods (R=0.83; p<0.01). In summary, single-cell methods such as imaging, cytogenetics, and scDNAseq can measure CIN, with the latter being the most comprehensive method accessible to clinical samples. To facilitate comparison of CIN rates between phenotypes and methods, we propose a standardized unit of CIN: Mis-segregations per Diploid Division (MDD). This systematic analysis of common CIN measures highlights the superiority of single-cell methods and provides guidance for measuring CIN in the clinical setting.

Proliferative advantage of specific aneuploid cells drives evolution of tumor karyotypes

Most tumors have abnormal karyotypes, which arise from mistakes during mitotic division of healthy euploid cells and evolve through numerous complex mechanisms. In a recent mouse model with increased chromosome missegregation, chromosome gains dominate over losses both in pretumor and tumor tissues, whereas T-cell lymphomas are characterized by gains of chromosomes 14 and 15. However, the quantitative understanding of clonal selection leading to tumor karyotype evolution remains unknown. Here we show, by introducing a mathematical model based on a concept of a macro-karyotype, that tumor karyotypes can be explained by proliferation-driven evolution of aneuploid cells. In pretumor cells, increased apoptosis and slower proliferation of cells with monosomies lead to predominant chromosome gains over losses. Tumor karyotypes with gain of one chromosome can be explained by karyotype-dependent proliferation, whereas, for those with two chromosomes, an interplay with karyotype-dependent apoptosis is an additional possible pathway. Thus, evolution of tumor-specific karyotypes requires proliferative advantage of specific aneuploid karyotypes.

Challenges and Opportunities for Clinical Cytogenetics in the 21st Century

The powerful utilities of current DNA sequencing technology question the value of developing clinical cytogenetics any further. By briefly reviewing the historical and current challenges of cytogenetics, the new conceptual and technological platform of the 21st century clinical cytogenetics is presented. Particularly, the genome architecture theory (GAT) has been used as a new framework to emphasize the importance of clinical cytogenetics in the genomic era, as karyotype dynamics play a central role in information-based genomics and genome-based macroevolution. Furthermore, many diseases can be linked to elevated levels of genomic variations within a given environment. With karyotype coding in mind, new opportunities for clinical cytogenetics are discussed to integrate genomics back into cytogenetics, as karyotypic context represents a new type of genomic information that organizes gene interactions. The proposed research frontiers include: 1. focusing on karyotypic heterogeneity (e.g., classifying non-clonal chromosome aberrations (NCCAs), studying mosaicism, heteromorphism, and nuclear architecture alteration-mediated diseases), 2. monitoring the process of somatic evolution by characterizing genome instability and illustrating the relationship between stress, karyotype dynamics, and diseases, and 3. developing methods to integrate genomic data and cytogenomics. We hope that these perspectives can trigger further discussion beyond traditional chromosomal analyses. Future clinical cytogenetics should profile chromosome instability-mediated somatic evolution, as well as the degree of non-clonal chromosomal aberrations that monitor the genomic system's stress response. Using this platform, many common and complex disease conditions, including the aging process, can be effectively and tangibly monitored for health benefits.

Intra-tumor heterogeneity, turnover rate and karyotype space shape susceptibility to missegregation-induced extinction

The phenotypic efficacy of somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) stems from their incidence per base pair of the genome, which is orders of magnitudes greater than that of point mutations. One mitotic event stands out in its potential to significantly change a cell's SCNA burden-a chromosome missegregation. A stochastic model of chromosome mis-segregations has been previously developed to describe the evolution of SCNAs of a single chromosome type. Building upon this work, we derive a general deterministic framework for modeling missegregations of multiple chromosome types. The framework offers flexibility to model intra-tumor heterogeneity in the SCNAs of all chromosomes, as well as in missegregation- and turnover rates. The model can be used to test how selection acts upon coexisting karyotypes over hundreds of generations. We use the model to calculate missegregation-induced population extinction (MIE) curves, that separate viable from non-viable populations as a function of their turnover- and missegregation rates. Turnover- and missegregation rates estimated from scRNA-seq data are then compared to theoretical predictions. We find convergence of theoretical and empirical results in both the location of MIE curves and the necessary conditions for MIE. When a dependency of missegregation rate on karyotype is introduced, karyotypes associated with low missegregation rates act as a stabilizing refuge, rendering MIE impossible unless turnover rates are exceedingly high. Intra-tumor heterogeneity, including heterogeneity in missegregation rates, increases as tumors progress, rendering MIE unlikely.

Misaligned Chromosomes are a Major Source of Chromosomal Instability in Breast Cancer

Chromosomal instability (CIN), the persistent reshuffling of chromosomes during mitosis, is a hallmark of human cancers that contributes to tumor heterogeneity and has been implicated in driving metastasis and altering responses to therapy. Though multiple mechanisms can produce CIN, lagging chromosomes generated from abnormal merotelic attachments are the major cause of CIN in a variety of cell lines, and are expected to predominate in cancer. Here, we quantify CIN in breast cancer using a tumor microarray, matched primary and metastatic samples, and patient-derived organoids from primary breast cancer. Surprisingly, misaligned chromosomes are more common than lagging chromosomes and represent a major source of CIN in primary and metastatic tumors. This feature of breast cancers is conserved in a majority of breast cancer cell lines. Importantly, though a portion of misaligned chromosomes align before anaphase onset, the fraction that remain represents the largest source of CIN in these cells. Metastatic breast cancers exhibit higher rates of CIN than matched primary cancers, primarily due to increases in misaligned chromosomes. Whether CIN causes immune activation or evasion is controversial. We find that misaligned chromosomes result in immune-activating micronuclei substantially less frequently than lagging and bridge chromosomes and that breast cancers with greater frequencies of lagging chromosomes and chromosome bridges recruit more stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes. These data indicate misaligned chromosomes represent a major mechanism of CIN in breast cancer and provide support for differential immunostimulatory effects of specific types of CIN.

Significance

We surveyed the single-cell landscape of mitotic defects that generate CIN in primary and metastatic breast cancer and relevant models. Misaligned chromosomes predominate, and are less immunostimulatory than other chromosome segregation errors.