Influence of Pleistocene climatic oscillations on the phylogeography and demographic history of endemic vulnerable trees (section Magnolia) of the Tropical Montane Cloud Forest in Mexico

The effect of climate change on Arcto-Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution

Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto‐Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the study of spatial ecology and temporal patterns to develop conservation plans. These are key to understanding the niche conservatism of other forest communities with similar environmental requirements. For this study, we used species distribution models by combining occurrence records, to assess the distribution patterns and changes of the past (Last Glacial Maximum), present (1981–2010), and future (2040–2070) periods under two climate scenarios (SSP 3‐7.0 & SSP 5‐8.5). Next, we determined the habitat suitability and priority conservation areas of Mexican beech as associated with topography, land cover use, distance to the nearest town, and environmental variables. By considering the distribution of Mexican beech during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study estimated that high‐impact areas of Mexican beech forests were restricted to specific areas of the Sierra Madre Oriental that constitute refugia from the Last Glacial Maximum. Regrettably, our results exhibited that Mexican beech distribution has decreased 71.3% since the Last Glacial Maximum and this trend will for the next 50 years, migrating to specific refugia at higher altitudes. This suggests that the states of Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Puebla will preserve the habitat suitability features as ecological refugia, related to high moisture and north‐facing slopes. For isolated and difficult‐to‐access areas, the proposed methods are powerful tools for relict‐tree species, which deserve further conservation.

Glacial Expansion or Interglacial Expansion? Contrasting Demographic Models of Four Cold-Adapted Fir Species in North America and East Asia

Understanding and forecasting species’ response to climate change is a critical need for future conservation and management. Two expansion hypotheses, the glacial expansion versus the interglacial expansion, have been proposed to interpret how cold-adapted organisms in the northern hemisphere respond to Quaternary climatic fluctuations. To test these two hypotheses, we originally used two pairs of high-low elevation firs from North America (Abies lasiocarpa and Abies balsamea) and East Asia (Abies chensiensis and Abies nephrolepis). Abies lasiocarpa and Abies chensiensis are widely distributed in high-elevation regions of western North America and central China. Abies balsamea and Abies nephrolepis occur in central North America and northeast China, with much lower elevations. These fir species are typical cold-adapted species and sensitive to climate fluctuations. Here, we integrated the mtDNA and cpDNA polymorphisms involving 44 populations and 585 individuals. Based on phylogeographic analyses, recent historical range expansions were indicated in two high-elevation firs (Abies lasiocarpa and Abies chensiensis) during the last glaciation (43.8–28.4 or 21.9–14.2 kya, 53.1–34.5 or 26.6–17.2 kya). Such glacial expansions in high-elevation firs were further confirmed by the evidence of species distribution modelling, geographic-driven genetic patterns, palynological records, and current distribution patterns. Unlike the north American firs, the SDM models indicated unremarkable expansion or contraction in East Asia firs for its much more stable conditions during different historical periods. Taken together, our findings highly supported that high-elevation firs experienced glacial expansion during the Quaternary climate change in East Asia and North America, as interglacial expansion within low-elevation firs. Under this situation, the critically endangered fir species distributed in high elevation would have no enough higher elevational space to migrate. Facing the increasing global warming, thus we proposed ex-situ conservation of defining conservation units as the most meaningful strategy.