1
|
Qasim S, Mahmood T, Rakha BA, Nadeem MS, Akrim F, Aslam A, Belant JL. Predicting current and future habitat of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change. Sci Rep 2024; 14:7564. [PMID: 38555376 PMCID: PMC10981748 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-58173-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change is among the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss, threatening up to 15-30% of described species by the end of the twenty-first century. We estimated the current suitable habitat and forecasted future distribution ranges of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change scenarios. We collected occurrence records of Indian pangolin using burrow counts, remote camera records and previously published literature in Pakistan during 2021-2023. We downloaded bioclimatic data for current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) climate scenarios from the WorldClim database using the Hadley Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GC31-LL). We used MaxEnt software to predict current and future distributions of Indian pangolin, then computed the amount of habitat lost, gained, and unchanged across periods. We obtained 560 Indian pangolin occurrences overall, 175 during the study, and 385 from our literature search. Model accuracy was very good (AUC = 0.885, TSS = 0.695), and jackknife tests of variable importance showed that the contribution of annual mean temperature (bio1) was greatest (33.4%), followed by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio-12, 29.3%), temperature seasonality (bio 4, 25.9%), and precipitation seasonality (bio 15, 11.5%). The maxent model predicted that during the current time period (1970-2000) highly suitable habitat for Indian pangolin was (7270 km2, 2.2%), followed by moderately suitable (12,418 km2, 3.7%), less suitable (49,846 km2, 14.8%), and unsuitable habitat (268,355 km2, 79.4%). Highly suitable habitat decreased in the western part of the study area under most SSPs and in the central parts it declined under all SSPs and in future time periods. The predicted loss in the suitable habitat of the Indian pangolin was greatest (26.97%) under SSP 585 followed by SSP 126 (23.67%) during the time 2061-2080. The gain in suitable habitat of Indian pangolin was less than that of losses on average which ranged between 1.91 and 13.11% under all SSPs during all time periods. While the stable habitat of the Indian pangolin ranged between 64.60 and 83.85% under all SSPs during all time periods. Our study provides the current and future habitat ranges of Indian pangolin in the face of a changing climate. The findings of our study could be helpful for policymakers to set up conservation strategies for Indian pangolin in Pakistan.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Siddiqa Qasim
- Department of Zoology, Wildlife and Fisheries, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
| | - Tariq Mahmood
- Department of Zoology, Wildlife and Fisheries, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Bushra Allah Rakha
- Department of Zoology, Wildlife and Fisheries, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Sajid Nadeem
- Department of Zoology, Wildlife and Fisheries, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Faraz Akrim
- Department of Zoology, University of Kotli, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan
| | - Asad Aslam
- Department of Zoology, University of Kotli, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan
| | - Jerrold L Belant
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Sharma HP, Bhattarai BP, Regmi S, Bhandari S, Adhikari D, Aryal B, Tamang K, Nepali A, K C S, Rawal B, Parajuli S, Baral BD, Devkota S, Koirala S, Belant JL, Katuwal HB. Occurrence and temporal overlap of sympatric jungle cats and leopard cats in Parsa‒Koshi Complex, Nepal. Sci Rep 2024; 14:2387. [PMID: 38287050 PMCID: PMC10825126 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-52644-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 01/22/2024] [Indexed: 01/31/2024] Open
Abstract
Co-occurrence and spatial and temporal overlap of sympatric jungle and leopard cats are influenced by habitat preferences, and interspecific competition. Understanding these factors influence is crucial for developing effective conservation strategies. We conducted a camera survey in Parsa‒Koshi Complex (PKC), Nepal during December 2022-March 2023 to investigate factors influencing occupancy and spatial and temporal overlap between jungle cats (Felis chaus) and leopard cats (Prionailurus bengalensis). The mean detection probability (t = 0.664, p = 0.507) did not differ between jungle cats (p = 0.500 ± 0.289) and leopard cats (p = 0.501 ± 0.288); however, occupancy (t = 31.008, p < 0.001) was greater for jungle cats (ψ = 0.247 ± 0.020) than leopard cats (ψ = 0.178 ± 0.019). Jungle cats and leopard cats were positively associated with large predators, and jungle cats were positively associated with human presence and negatively associated with canopy cover. We observed high diel overlap between leopard cats and jungle cats (Dhat1 = 0.802, norm0CI: 0.720-0.884), with both species largely nocturnal. Co-existence of jungle cats and leopard cats in PKC appears to be facilitated by spatial segregation. These findings provide valuable insights into the complex ecological dynamics and interactions between sympatric jungle and leopard cats.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hari Prasad Sharma
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
- Nepal Zoological Society, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
| | - Bishnu Prasad Bhattarai
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Nepal Zoological Society, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Sandeep Regmi
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
- Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, 666303, Yunnan, China
| | - Shivish Bhandari
- Department of Biology, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, 21251, USA
| | | | - Bishnu Aryal
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Krishna Tamang
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Amrit Nepali
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Sabin K C
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Basudha Rawal
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Sagar Parajuli
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Bashu Dev Baral
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Surya Devkota
- Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | | | - Jerrold L Belant
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA
| | - Hem Bahadur Katuwal
- Nepal Zoological Society, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal.
- Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, 666303, Yunnan, China.
| |
Collapse
|