Potential invasive plant expansion in global ecoregions under climate change

Systematic reduction of natural enemies and competition across variable precipitation approximates buffelgrass invasiveness (Cenchrus ciliaris) in its native range

Invasive grasses cause devastating losses to biodiversity and ecosystem function directly and indirectly by altering ecosystem processes. Escape from natural enemies, plant-plant competition, and variable resource availability provide frameworks for understanding invasion. However, we lack a clear understanding of how natural stressors interact in their native range to regulate invasiveness. In this study, we reduced diverse guilds of natural enemies and plant competitors of the highly invasive buffelgrass across a precipitation gradient throughout major climatic shifts in Laikipia, Kenya. To do this, we used a long-term ungulate exclosure experiment design across a precipitation gradient with nested treatments that (1) reduced plant competition through clipping, (2) reduced insects through systemic insecticide, and (3) reduced fungal associates through fungicide application. Additionally, we measured the interaction of ungulates on two stem-boring insect species feeding on buffelgrass. Finally, we measured a multiyear smut fungus outbreak. Our findings suggest that buffelgrass exhibits invasive qualities when released from a diverse group of natural stressors in its native range. We show natural enemies interact with precipitation to alter buffelgrass productivity patterns. In addition, interspecific plant competition decreased the basal area of buffelgrass, suggesting that biotic resistance mediates buffelgrass dominance in the home range. Surprisingly, systemic insecticides and fungicides did not impact buffelgrass production or reproduction, perhaps because other guilds filled the niche space in these highly diverse systems. For example, in the absence of ungulates, we showed an increase in host-specific stem-galling insects, where these insects compensated for reduced ungulate use. Finally, we documented a smut outbreak in 2020 and 2021, corresponding to highly variable precipitation patterns caused by a shifting Indian Ocean Dipole. In conclusion, we observed how reducing natural enemies and competitors and certain interactions increased properties related to buffelgrass invasiveness.

Spatial Distribution Pattern and Risk Assessment of Invasive Alien Plants on Southern Side of the Daba Mountain Area

The southern side of the Daba Mountain area is a hotspot of global biodiversity and an essential barrier promoting ecological security. However, knowledge about the distribution status and transmission pathways of invasive alien species (IAS) in this area is limited. We counted the IAS on the southern side of the Daba Mountain area through sample transects and analyzed the factors affecting their spatial distribution. We also assessed IAS risk using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which found 64 IAS belonging to 23 families and 53 genera. Around rivers and roads, the results showed a vertical two-way dispersal pattern. Human and environmental factors, such as a very dense transportation network, can affect the distribution pattern of IAS. AHP assessed 43 IAS (67.19%), primarily distributed in villages and towns, as being of high or medium risk. High- and medium-risk IAS should be the focus of invasion prevention and control, and priority should be given to controlling the spread of IAS around rivers and roads.

Predicting current and future distribution of Hovenia dulcis Thunb. (Rhamnaceae) worldwide

Biological invasions are increasingly recognized as one of the major threats to biodiversity. The Japanese raisin tree (Hovenia dulcis) is native to East Asia, however, in southeastern South America this species has become one of the most pervasive invaders. Hovenia dulcis has many biological characteristics that favor the process of invasion and few studies have indicated changes in the structure and composition of native plant communities where this species has become invader. Given the invasiveness shown in southeastern South America, our main goal was to identify the potentially suitable habitats for this invasive species at a global scale. In this sense, we modeled the potential distribution of H. dulcis along the terrestrial areas worldwide using an ensemble forecasting approach. Additionally, the percentage of overlapping biodiversity hotspot areas with the currently suitable areas for this species was calculated. Our results revealed that the current potential H. dulcis range is equivalent to 7.88% (12,719,365 km2) of the terrestrial area worldwide. For the future scenarios of climate change, the potential distribution area tends to have a small reduction. However, significant suitable areas were identified for H. dulcis range in the northern limits of the boreal distribution. Currently, around 17% of biodiversity hotspot areas overlap with the suitable areas for H. dulcis occurrence. In summary, given that the prevention is well-recognized as a more effective management action against invasive alien species, it is essential to implement policies to prevent H. dulcis introduction in suitable areas worldwide, as well as local population control, especially in biodiversity hotspots.

Potential distributional shifts in North America of allelopathic invasive plant species under climate change models

Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios. Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics. Here, we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants-Ailanthus altissima, Casuarina equisetifolia, Centaurea stoebe ssp. micranthos, Dioscorea bulbifera, Lantana camara, and Schinus terebinthifolia-that are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change. We used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models. ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs, estimate current distributions, and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species. Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America. Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States, while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades, given projected changes in temperature and precipitation. Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km², and 990.29 km², respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.

Double-edged effects of climate change on plant invasions: Ecological niche modeling global distributions of two invasive alien plants

The prediction of the potential distribution of invasive alien species is key for the control of their proliferation. This study developed ensemble niche models to explore the distribution patterns of Cecropia peltata and Ulex europaeus under baseline and future conditions, as well as the factors that regulate them. The models were based on occurrence records as well as climate, land-use and topography datasets. Climatic factors played a stronger role than land-use and topographical factors in their distribution patterns. Additionally, temperature seasonality and temperature annual range were the optimal predictor for the global distributions of C. peltata and U. europaeus, respectively. Under the baseline-RCP 8.5 scenario in 2070, significant increases in habitat suitability for C. peltata were generally detected in tropical regions, while for U. europaeus under the same condition, significant increases in habitat suitability were generally observed in west coast of South America and Europe, suggesting the impacts of climate changes on species distribution may be species specific. The contrast changes of suitable habitat areas for U. europaeus under the baseline-2.6 and 8.5 scenarios may suggest that the scenarios of climate changes may modify its distribution patterns and variations in suitable habitats. The double-edged effects of global warming on plant invasions may be a result of the scenario specific climate change and the species-specific responses to changes in climate. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change scenario specific and species-specific research on the impact of climate change on plant invasions.

Evaluating the Effect of Prosopis juliflora, an Alien Invasive Species, on Land Cover Change Using Remote Sensing Approach

Invasive plant species (IPS) affect people’s livelihoods and well-being by providing both benefits and costs in different contexts. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of Prosopis juliflora invasion on land cover change using ground survey and satellite sensor data derived from Landsat ETM+. The study was conducted at Sweimeh, Jordan Valley, between 1999 and 2017. The overall classification accuracy of remotely sensed data was 86% for 1999 and 80% for 2017. Accordingly, a remote sensing approach has the potential to assess land change/cover and aid in monitoring the IPS, specifically Prosopis invasion. Change detection analysis of Landsat classes (i.e., 1999 and 2017) showed that bare soil, urban, and water surface areas decreased by 6%, 11%, and 3%, respectively. Conversely, the vegetation class (i.e., IPS and native plants) increased by 20%. Ground surveys in 1999 and 2017 showed that the average vegetation area in Sweimeh invaded by Prosopis was approximately 60% in 1999 and 70% in 2017. Accordingly, the total estimated area invaded by P. juliflora at Sweimeh (2106 ha) in 1999 was approximately 92 ha, while Prosopis coverage in the same region was approximately 413 ha in 2017. The high emergence rate, the adaptation to high temperatures and low precipitation as well as governmental regulations which restrict the removal of trees, including IPS, were the main factors that prompted the extreme P. juliflora invasion in the Jordan Valley. The high invasion rate has led to a reduction in native species, including Tamarix spp., and dried up five natural water springs in the area. Overall, a monitoring plan should be applied to control the invasion problem by Prosopis in the valley. In addition, the conservation regulations that deal with IPS should be revised to mitigate the IPS risk.

Functional Role of Extrafloral Nectar in Boreal Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change

Carbohydrate-rich extrafloral nectar (EFN) is produced in nectaries on the leaves, stipules, and stems of plants and provides a significant energy source for ants and other plant mutualists outside of the flowering period. Our review of literature on EFN indicates that only a few forest plant species in cool boreal environments bear EFN-producing nectaries and that EFN production in many boreal and subarctic plant species is poorly studied. Boreal forest, the world’s largest land biome, is dominated by coniferous trees, which, like most gymnosperms, do not produce EFN. Notably, common deciduous tree species that can be dominant in boreal forest stands, such as Betula and Alnus species, do not produce EFN, while Prunus and Populus species are the most important EFN-producing tree species. EFN together with aphid honeydew is known to play a main role in shaping ant communities. Ants are considered to be keystone species in mixed and conifer-dominated boreal and mountain forests because they transfer a significant amount of carbon from the canopy to the soil. Our review suggests that in boreal forests aphid honeydew is a more important carbohydrate source for ants than in many warmer ecosystems and that EFN-bearing plant species might not have a competitive advantage against herbivores. However, this hypothesis needs to be tested in the future. Warming of northern ecosystems under climate change might drastically promote the invasion of many EFN-producing plants and the associated insect species that consume EFN as their major carbohydrate source. This may result in substantial changes in the diet preferences of ant communities, the preventative roles of ants against insect pest outbreaks, and the ecosystem services they provide. However, wood ants have adapted to using tree sap that leaks from bark cracks in spring, which may mitigate the effects of improved EFN availability.