Spatial near future modeling of land use and land cover changes in the temperate forests of Mexico

Defining Conservation Priorities for Oak Forests in Central Mexico Based on Networks of Connectivity

Connectivity is a landscape property that promotes gene flow between organisms located in different patches of habitat and provides a way to reduce habitat loss by maintaining flux of organisms through the landscape; it is an important factor for conservation decisions. In this study, we evaluated the structural and functional connectivity among 510 oak forest remnants in a basin in central Mexico by modeling the potential distribution of seven oak species that inhabit in it. The structural and functional connectivity of oak forest remnants was estimated by graph theory. Distribution models for all the oak species had a good level of predictability, showing that 53.16% of the basin is suitable for oaks. The importance for connectivity varied between the remnant forests. Large forest fragments had the highest values of connectivity, and small forest fragments acted as steppingstones favoring the movement of organisms among fragments. In the southern region of the basin, connected remnant forests had conformed to a large network, but in the northern region, the remnant forests were mostly isolated. Conservation of oak forests in this basin requires protection for remaining patches by preserving both large and small ones and restoring biological corridors to reduce the isolation of forest fragments.

Long-Term Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Increased the Landscape Heterogeneity of a Fragmented Temperate Forest in Mexico

The temperate forests of northern Mexico possess a great diversity of unique and endemic species, with the greatest associations of pine-oak in the planet occurring within them. However, the ecosystems in this region had experienced an accelerated fragmentation process in the past decades. This study described and quantified the landscape fragmentation level of a degraded watershed located in this region. For that, data from the Landsat series from 1990, 2005 and 2017, classified with the Support Vector Machine method, were used. The landscape structure was analyzed based on six metrics applied at both, the landscape and class levels. Results show considerable gains in surface area for the land use land cover change (LULC) of secondary forest while the Primary Forest (PF) lost 18.1% of its area during 1990–2017. The PF increased its number of patches from 7075 to 12,318, increased its patch density (PD) from 53.51 to 58.46 # of patches/100 ha, and reduced its average patch size from 39.21 to 15.05 ha. This made the PF the most fragmented LULC from the 5 LULCs evaluated. In this study, strong fluctuations in edge density and PD were registered, which indicates the forests of northern Mexico have experienced a reduction in their productivity and have been subjected to a continuous degradation process due to disturbances such as fires, clandestine and non-properly controlled logging, among others.

Establishment of Land Use Suitability Mapping Criteria Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Practitioners and Beneficiaries

The presence of land use conflicts is often unavoidable as land is finite and a scarce resource. With development as a prime goal, the increasing demands for specific uses make the situation more serious than it was before. In the context of land uses, suitability determines the inherent capacity of the land to perform a defined use with optimum efficiency and sustainability. However, single land use suitability analysis could not answer the overall objective of land allocation. Thus, this study considers the primary and general land uses with the valuable evaluation criteria necessary for simultaneous land use suitability analyses. This paper aims at establishing the relevant and necessary evaluation criteria for Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for land use suitability analysis for residential, industrial, commercial, agricultural, and forest land uses. The factors which could be used as indicators in land suitability analysis were derived from both literature review and through experts’ knowledge. Correspondingly, the relative importance (weights) of the criteria established were derived using pairwise comparisons through the AHP technique readily available for subsequent GIS analysis. Last, the criteria developed are general in nature and could be replicated and/or altered depending upon the local needs and situations.

GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation of Land Suitability for Grasslands Conservation in Chihuahua, Mexico

This study developed a GIS-based framework for the zoning of land suitability for grassland conservation (LSGC) in the Central Valleys of Chihuahua, México. For that, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based multicriteria evaluation techniques with weighted overlay (MCE-WO), and a fragmentation analysis were performed. The framework for LSGC consisted in the development of four scenarios: Nonintensive Agriculture, Intensive Agriculture, Urban, and Rural. The LSGC classes defined with the MCE-WO technique were: Very high, High, Moderate, Low, and Very low land suitability. Results showed that the zone with a high suitability covered the largest area in the four scenarios with a surface of 44,264 km2. The zones with low and very low suitability were concentrated mainly in the central region of the study area. At the landscape level, fragmentation of LSGC showed the Nonintensive Agriculture and the Rural scenarios with the highest Number of patches (54,640 and 46,210, respectively). The fragmentation of LSGC, under the scenarios evaluated, was mainly due to land opening for agriculture and to the influence of rural communities. The integration of GIS with MCE-WO is useful and effective for the evaluation of LSGC. This tool can provide a solid source of information for decision-makers regarding planning of land use to mitigate grasslands degradation.