Leveraging Advanced Data Analytics to Predict the Risk of All-Cause Seven-Day Emergency Readmissions

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting the Risk of Readmission in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background

Pneumonia is a common respiratory infection that affects all ages, with a higher rate anticipated as age increases. It is a disease that impacts patient health and the economy of the healthcare institution. Therefore, machine learning methods have been used to guide clinical judgment in disease conditions and can recognize patterns based on patient data. This study aims to develop a prediction model for the readmission risk within 30 days of patient discharge after the management of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

Methodology

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify the statistically significant factors that are associated with the readmission of patients with CAP. Multiple machine learning models were used to predict the readmission of CAP patients within 30 days by conducting a retrospective observational study on patient data. The dataset was obtained from the Hospital Information System of a tertiary healthcare organization across Saudi Arabia. The study included all patients diagnosed with CAP from 2016 until the end of 2018.

Results

The collected data included 8,690 admission records related to CAP for 5,776 patients (2,965 males, 2,811 females). The results of the analysis showed that patient age, heart rate, respiratory rate, medication count, and the number of comorbidities were significantly associated with the odds of being readmitted. All other variables showed no significant effect. We ran four algorithms to create the model on our data. The decision tree gave high accuracy of 83%, while support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and logistic regression provided better accuracy of 90%. However, because the dataset was unbalanced, the precision and recall for readmission were zero for all models except the decision tree with 16% and 18%, respectively. By applying the Synthetic Minority Oversampling TEchnique technique to balance the training dataset, the results did not change significantly; the highest precision achieved was 16% in the SVM model. RF achieved the highest recall with 45%, but without any advantage to this model because the accuracy was reduced to 65%.

Conclusions

Pneumonia is an infectious disease with major health and economic complications. We identified that less than 10% of patients were readmitted for CAP after discharge; in addition, we identified significant predictors. However, our study did not have enough data to develop a proper machine learning prediction model for the risk of readmission.