GRADE concept paper 2: Concepts for judging certainty on the calibration of prognostic models in a body of validation studies

``In this paper, we highlight key concepts...'' is background.The sentence ``IN this paper, we highlight key concepts in evaluating the certainty of evidence regarding the calibration of prognostic models'' is methods. The rest is results and conclusion. Brognostic models combine several prognostic factors to provide an estimate of the likelihood (or risk) of future events in individual patients, conditional on their prognostic factor values. A fundamental part of evaluating prognostic models is undertaking studies to determine whether their predictive performance, such as calibration and discrimination, is reproduced across settings. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies evaluating prognostic models' performance are a necessary step for selection of models for clinical practice and for testing the underlying assumption that their use will improve outcomes, including patient's reassurance and optimal future planning. In this paper, we highlight key concepts in evaluating the certainty of evidence regarding the calibration of prognostic models. Four concepts are key to evaluating the certainty of evidence on prognostic models' performance regarding calibration. The first concept is that the inference regarding calibration may take 1 of 2 forms: deciding whether 1 is rating certainty that a model's performance is satisfactory or, instead, unsatisfactory, in either case defining the threshold for satisfactory (or unsatisfactory) model performance. Second, inconsistency is the critical GRADE domain to deciding whether we are rating certainty in the model performance being satisfactory or unsatisfactory. Third, depending on whether 1 is rating certainty in satisfactory or unsatisfactory performance, different patterns of inconsistency of results across studies will inform ratings of certainty of evidence. Fourth, exploring the distribution of point estimates of observed to expected ratio across individual studies, and its determinants, will bear on the need for and direction of future research.

[Use of evidence in heath policies and programs contributions of the instituto nacional de salud]

This article analyzes some examples about how the Ministry of Health of Peru has used evidence for policy and program formulation, implementation and evaluation. It describes the process by which health budget programs are based and strengthened with scientific evidence. Provides an overview about how the development of clinical guidelines methodology is facilitating the generation of high quality evidence based clinical guidelines.It presents some examples of specific information needs of the Ministry of Health to which the Instituto Nacional de Salud has responded, and the impact of that collaboration. Finally, the article proposes future directions for the use of research methodology especially relevant for the development and evaluation of policy and programs, as well as the development of networks of health technology assessment at the national and international level.

Lupus eritematoso sistémico, en un paciente varón: a propósito de un caso

El lupus eritematoso sistémico es una enfermedad que afecta predominantemente a mujeres, presentándose con manifestaciones variables. Esta comunicación de caso trata sobre un paciente varón joven, que debuta con artropatía lúpica, variedad artropatía de Jaccoud. Se realiza una revisión de la literatura acerca de las características clínicas del lupus en el varón y sus diferencias con el cuadro clínico en la mujer.

Macroglobulinemia de Waldenströn: comunicación de un caso

La macroglobulinemia de Waldenström (MW) es una rara neoplasia hematológica, caracterizada por la proliferación linfoplasmocitaria, con producción monoclonal de inmunoglobulina M (IgM) e infiltración medular. Comunicamos el caso de un paciente de raza negra, con MW, quien presentó compromiso oftalmológico, con manifestaciones fundoscópicas, neurológicas, citopenia y síntomas constitucionales, derivados de la infiltración tumoral y de la gamapatia monoclonal. Asimismo, lesiones osteolíticas, raras en la MW. Se realiza una revisión de la literatura acerca de los criterios diagnósticos, epidemiología, fisiopatología y clínica de esta enfermedad muy poco informada en nuestro país.