Dynamic individual vital sign trajectory early warning score (DyniEWS) versus snapshot national early warning score (NEWS) for predicting postoperative deterioration

Aims

International early warning scores (EWS) including the additive National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and logistic EWS currently utilise physiological snapshots to predict clinical deterioration. We hypothesised that a dynamic score including vital sign trajectory would improve discriminatory power.

Methods

Multicentre retrospective analysis of electronic health record data from postoperative patients admitted to cardiac surgical wards in four UK hospitals. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-type regression (LASSO) was used to develop a dynamic model (DyniEWS) to predict a composite adverse event of cardiac arrest, unplanned intensive care re-admission or in-hospital death within 24 h.

Results

A total of 13,319 postoperative adult cardiac patients contributed 442,461 observations of which 4234 (0.96%) adverse events in 24 h were recorded. The new dynamic model (AUC = 0.80 [95% CI 0.78−0.83], AUPRC = 0.12 [0.10−0.14]) outperforms both an updated snapshot logistic model (AUC = 0.76 [0.73−0.79], AUPRC = 0.08 [0.60−0.10]) and the additive National Early Warning Score (AUC = 0.73 [0.70−0.76], AUPRC = 0.05 [0.02−0.08]). Controlling for the false alarm rates to be at current levels using NEWS cut-offs of 5 and 7, DyniEWS delivers a 7% improvement in balanced accuracy and increased sensitivities from 41% to 54% at NEWS 5 and 18% to –30% at NEWS 7.

Conclusions

Using an advanced statistical approach, we created a model that can detect dynamic changes in risk of unplanned readmission to intensive care, cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality and can be used in real time to risk-prioritise clinical workload.

Logistic early warning scores to predict death, cardiac arrest or unplanned intensive care unit re-admission after cardiac surgery

NHS England recently mandated that the National Early Warning Score of vital signs be used in all acute hospital trusts in the UK despite limited validation in the postoperative setting. We undertook a multicentre UK study of 13,631 patients discharged from intensive care after risk‐stratified cardiac surgery in four centres, all of which used VitalPAC^TM to electronically collect postoperative National Early Warning Score vital signs. We analysed 540,127 sets of vital signs to generate a logistic score, the discrimination of which we compared with the national additive score for the composite outcome of: in‐hospital death; cardiac arrest; or unplanned intensive care admission. There were 578 patients (4.2%) with an outcome that followed 4300 sets of observations (0.8%) in the preceding 24 h: 499 out of 578 (86%) patients had unplanned re‐admissions to intensive care. Discrimination by the logistic score was significantly better than the additive score. Respective areas (95%CI) under the receiver‐operating characteristic curve with 24‐h and 6‐h vital signs were: 0.779 (0.771–0.786) vs. 0.754 (0.746–0.761), p < 0.001; and 0.841 (0.829–0.853) vs. 0.813 (0.800–0.825), p < 0.001, respectively. Our proposed logistic Early Warning Score was better than the current National Early Warning Score at discriminating patients who had an event after cardiac surgery from those who did not.

Endobronchial tubes - a case for re-evaluation

An endobronchial tube (Macintosh-Leatherdale) was used to secure the airway for a tracheal resection and end-to-end anastomosis. This lung separation device enabled insertion of both a fibreoptic bronchoscope and a tube exchange catheter. These were required after the trachea was transected and re-anastomosis proved surgically difficult. The airway exchange catheter allowed for jet ventilation and later a tube change when an emergency occurred. Options and management issues for tracheal surgery and lung separators are discussed. A case is made for a re-evaluation of endobronchial tubes both as a useful conduit for modern airway instruments and as an alternative to small double-lumen tubes for the increasing population of obese patients weighing > 100 kg, requiring thoracic surgery.