Confounding by indication of the safety of de-escalation in community-acquired pneumonia: A simulation study embedded in a prospective cohort

Observational studies have demonstrated that de-escalation of antimicrobial therapy is independently associated with lower mortality. This most probably results from confounding by indication. Reaching clinical stability is associated with the decision to de-escalate and with survival. However, studies rarely adjust for this confounder. We quantified the potential confounding effect of clinical stability on the estimated impact of de-escalation on mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. Data were used from the Community-Acquired Pneumonia immunization Trial in Adults (CAPiTA). The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We performed Cox proportional-hazards regression with de-escalation as time-dependent variable and adjusted for baseline characteristics using propensity scores. The potential impact of unmeasured confounding was quantified through simulating a variable representing clinical stability on day three, using data on prevalence and associations with mortality from the literature. Of 1,536 included patients, 257 (16.7%) were de-escalated, 123 (8.0%) were escalated and in 1156 (75.3%) the antibiotic spectrum remained unchanged. Crude 30-day mortality was 3.5% (9/257) and 10.9% (107/986) in the de-escalation and continuation groups, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio of de-escalation for 30-day mortality (compared to patients with unchanged coverage), without adjustment for clinical stability, was 0.39 (95%CI: 0.19–0.79). If 90% to 100% of de-escalated patients were clinically stable on day three, the fully adjusted hazard ratio would be 0.56 (95%CI: 0.27–1.12) to 1.04 (95%CI: 0.49–2.23), respectively. The simulated confounder was substantially stronger than any of the baseline confounders in our dataset. Quantification of effects of de-escalation on patient outcomes without proper adjustment for clinical stability results in strong negative bias. This study suggests the effect of de-escalation on mortality needs further well-designed prospective research to determine effect size more accurately.

Inappropriate Use of Antimicrobials for Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in Elderly Patients: Patient- and Community-Related Implications and Possible Interventions

The elderly are more susceptible to infections, which is reflected in the incidence and mortality of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) increasing with age. Several aspects of antimicrobial use for LRTIs in elderly patients should be considered to determine appropriateness. We discuss possible differences in microbial etiology between elderly and younger adults, definitions of inappropriate antimicrobial use for LRTIs currently found in the literature, along with their results, and the possible negative impact of antimicrobial therapy at both an individual and community level. Finally, we propose that both antimicrobial stewardship interventions and novel rapid diagnostic techniques may optimize antimicrobial use in elderly patients with LRTIs.