A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk

This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3-5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2-3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6-3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6-2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data.

Financing and implementation of adaptation measures to climate change along the Spanish coast

Understanding how we are adapting to climate change in coastal areas is an essential issue in the long-term coastal planning. While most of existing studies focus on mapping the current state of adaptation plans, there is a significant lack of studies on the current implementation of adaptation strategies. This study addresses this challenge by assessing how coastal adaptation is being financed and implemented in Spain. In the absence of a detailed roadmap for implementing the Spanish Strategy for Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change, we have analysed how adaptation has been and is currently being funded; which the rationale for investments along the territory is; how adaptation investments compare to regular coastal protection costs; and assessed when implemented measures are really adaptation ones. Our results show that the financing source clearly conditions the type of measures implemented, with those funded under the Environment Promotion Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (PIMA Adapta initiative) being dominated by classical coastal engineering actions, whereas ecosystem-related actions are mostly funded under the LIFE programme. In territorial terms, the Mediterranean coastal regions present the most important problems under current conditions and attract most of the funding. Most of the funded actions have been designed to solve current coastal problems, and although they indirectly contribute to adaptation by improving the coastal base status, they are not specifically designed for climate change. This misuse of the concept of adaptation measure will tend to the society to be overconfident about adopted actions whereas we are not progressing to real adaptation. To overcome this risk, it is necessary to have a clear roadmap for implementing adaptation measures together a proper financing structure.

Value and Cost of Myeloma Therapy-We Can Afford It

A national conversation regarding the price and affordability of drugs exists, where concern for value and benefits of medications is challenged by the increasing price of both injectable and oral medications, including the cost of care of myeloma. At the same time, we have seen unprecedented improvements in the overall survival of patients with myeloma, mostly because of the availability of these new drugs. Here, we present data to assert that these medications and associated expenses are of direct benefit to patients and society. The entrepreneurial reward for drug development in the United States has fueled vigorous drug development efforts that have culminated in the approval of 11 new drugs for the treatment of myeloma by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) since 1999. These patented drugs are available to patients in the United States usually at a higher price than in the rest of the world. Nevertheless, the majority of patients, via direct copay assistance or through indirect support via third parties, have access to these drugs irrespective of their socioeconomic status. One of the major regulatory hurdles that prevents access to these drugs is the legal impossibility that pharmaceutical companies have in directly supporting copay assistance for patients with government-funded health care. Moreover, assessments of value should include formal pharmacoeconomic analyses performed by experts. Interference with market forces and coercive action, such as price controls, or exercising eminent domain in the quest for cheaper medications will stymie innovation and rob us of the cures of the future.

A randomized trial of individual peer support for adults with psychiatric disabilities undergoing civil commitment

OBJECTIVE

Given the proliferation of peer-delivered services and its growing but insufficient empirical base, we undertook a randomized trial to examine the effects of such services on individuals with severe psychiatric disabilities undergoing a civil commitment.

METHOD

We recruited n = 113 individuals who were civilly committed for inpatient treatment. Randomly assigned experimental participants were paired with a trained peer specialist to receive intensive 1-on-1 support to assist them with both their recovery and the conditions of their mandated court-ordered services. Individuals in the control group were invited to receive other supportive, peer-delivered services, such as social and group educational activities, but excluding individual peer support. We assessed a variety of outcomes including social supports, quality of life, recovery, symptoms, and functioning.

RESULTS

Mounting a randomized trial in this setting and with participants who were court-ordered for inpatient treatment proved challenging in terms of recruitment, service provision, retention in the intervention, and attrition from the research. Intent-to-treat analyses revealed no significant differences in outcomes by study condition. As-treated analyses comparing high- and low-use peer support groups with control group participants found significant differences favoring peer support recipients in quality of life and functioning but no differences in other study outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Difficulties with ensuring the quality of the peer support in this study may be in part responsible for our failure to see more-definitive and -positive results. As the peer support specialist profession evolves, an understanding of its effective ingredients and mechanisms must be elucidated to allow for more-rigorous studies. (PsycINFO Database Record

Individual peer support: a qualitative study of mechanisms of its effectiveness

Peer-delivered services for individuals with psychiatric conditions have proliferated over the past three decades. The values and principles underlying peer support have been explored, but we lack an understanding of its mechanisms of action. To shed light on the processes of peer support, we conducted a study with individuals who had received substantial individual peer support. We completed individual interviews, audiotaped, transcribed, and examined them using a thematic analysis approach. Our analyses suggest that individual peer support provided various practical, emotional, and social supports which were perceived as beneficial. Participants valued having someone to rely on, a friend, and someone to socialize with. We, however, found that individuals' expectations of peer support did not always comport with available services. Participants viewed peer support as especially valuable because of the opportunity for a non-treatment based, normalizing relationship. We conclude that peer support complements rather than supplants needed traditional mental health services.