DagSim: Combining DAG-based model structure with unconstrained data types and relations for flexible, transparent, and modularized data simulation

Data simulation is fundamental for machine learning and causal inference, as it allows exploration of scenarios and assessment of methods in settings with full control of ground truth. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are well established for encoding the dependence structure over a collection of variables in both inference and simulation settings. However, while modern machine learning is applied to data of an increasingly complex nature, DAG-based simulation frameworks are still confined to settings with relatively simple variable types and functional forms. We here present DagSim, a Python-based framework for DAG-based data simulation without any constraints on variable types or functional relations. A succinct YAML format for defining the simulation model structure promotes transparency, while separate user-provided functions for generating each variable based on its parents ensure simulation code modularization. We illustrate the capabilities of DagSim through use cases where metadata variables control shapes in an image and patterns in bio-sequences. DagSim is available as a Python package at PyPI. Source code and documentation are available at: https://github.com/uio-bmi/dagsim.

Causal discovery for the microbiome

Measurement and manipulation of the microbiome is generally considered to have great potential for understanding the causes of complex diseases in humans, developing new therapies, and finding preventive measures. Many studies have found significant associations between the microbiome and various diseases; however, Koch's classical postulates remind us about the importance of causative reasoning when considering the relationship between microbes and a disease manifestation. Although causal discovery in observational microbiome data faces many challenges, methodological advances in causal structure learning have improved the potential of data-driven prediction of causal effects in large-scale biological systems. In this Personal View, we show the capability of existing methods for inferring causal effects from metagenomic data, and we highlight ways in which the introduction of causal structures that are more flexible than existing structures offers new opportunities for causal reasoning. Our observations suggest that microbiome research can further benefit from tools developed in the past 5 years in causal discovery and learn from their applications elsewhere.

Co-evolutionary Signals Identify Burkholderia pseudomallei Survival Strategies in a Hostile Environment

The soil bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei is the causative agent of melioidosis and a significant cause of human morbidity and mortality in many tropical and subtropical countries. The species notoriously survives harsh environmental conditions but the genetic architecture for these adaptations remains unclear. Here we employed a powerful combination of genome-wide epistasis and co-selection studies (2,011 genomes), condition-wide transcriptome analyses (82 diverse conditions), and a gene knockout assay to uncover signals of "co-selection"-that is a combination of genetic markers that have been repeatedly selected together through B. pseudomallei evolution. These enabled us to identify 13,061 mutation pairs under co-selection in distinct genes and noncoding RNA. Genes under co-selection displayed marked expression correlation when B. pseudomallei was subjected to physical stress conditions, highlighting the conditions as one of the major evolutionary driving forces for this bacterium. We identified a putative adhesin (BPSL1661) as a hub of co-selection signals, experimentally confirmed a BPSL1661 role under nutrient deprivation, and explored the functional basis of co-selection gene network surrounding BPSL1661 in facilitating the bacterial survival under nutrient depletion. Our findings suggest that nutrient-limited conditions have been the common selection pressure acting on this species, and allelic variation of BPSL1661 may have promoted B. pseudomallei survival during harsh environmental conditions by facilitating bacterial adherence to different surfaces, cells, or living hosts.

Genome evolution and the emergence of pathogenicity in avian Escherichia coli

Chickens are the most common birds on Earth and colibacillosis is among the most common diseases affecting them. This major threat to animal welfare and safe sustainable food production is difficult to combat because the etiological agent, avian pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC), emerges from ubiquitous commensal gut bacteria, with no single virulence gene present in all disease-causing isolates. Here, we address the underlying evolutionary mechanisms of extraintestinal spread and systemic infection in poultry. Combining population scale comparative genomics and pangenome-wide association studies, we compare E. coli from commensal carriage and systemic infections. We identify phylogroup-specific and species-wide genetic elements that are enriched in APEC, including pathogenicity-associated variation in 143 genes that have diverse functions, including genes involved in metabolism, lipopolysaccharide synthesis, heat shock response, antimicrobial resistance and toxicity. We find that horizontal gene transfer spreads pathogenicity elements, allowing divergent clones to cause infection. Finally, a Random Forest model prediction of disease status (carriage vs. disease) identifies pathogenic strains in the emergent ST-117 poultry-associated lineage with 73% accuracy, demonstrating the potential for early identification of emergent APEC in healthy flocks.

Genomic rearrangements uncovered by genome-wide co-evolution analysis of a major nosocomial pathogen, Enterococcus faecium

Enterococcus faecium is a gut commensal of the gastro-digestive tract, but also known as nosocomial pathogen among hospitalized patients. Population genetics based on whole-genome sequencing has revealed that E. faecium strains from hospitalized patients form a distinct clade, designated clade A1, and that plasmids are major contributors to the emergence of nosocomial E. faecium. Here we further explored the adaptive evolution of E. faecium using a genome-wide co-evolution study (GWES) to identify co-evolving single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We identified three genomic regions harbouring large numbers of SNPs in tight linkage that are not proximal to each other based on the completely assembled chromosome of the clade A1 reference hospital isolate AUS0004. Close examination of these regions revealed that they are located at the borders of four different types of large-scale genomic rearrangements, insertion sites of two different genomic islands and an IS30-like transposon. In non-clade A1 isolates, these regions are adjacent to each other and they lack the insertions of the genomic islands and IS30-like transposon. Additionally, among the clade A1 isolates there is one group of pet isolates lacking the genomic rearrangement and insertion of the genomic islands, suggesting a distinct evolutionary trajectory. In silico analysis of the biological functions of the genes encoded in three regions revealed a common link to a stress response. This suggests that these rearrangements may reflect adaptation to the stringent conditions in the hospital environment, such as antibiotics and detergents, to which bacteria are exposed. In conclusion, to our knowledge, this is the first study using GWES to identify genomic rearrangements, suggesting that there is considerable untapped potential to unravel hidden evolutionary signals from population genomic data.

New Pathogenesis Mechanisms and Translational Leads Identified by Multidimensional Analysis of Necrotizing Myositis in Primates

A fundamental goal of contemporary biomedical research is to understand the molecular basis of disease pathogenesis and exploit this information to develop targeted and more-effective therapies. Necrotizing myositis caused by the bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pyogenes is a devastating human infection with a high mortality rate and few successful therapeutic options. We used dual transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) to analyze the transcriptomes of S. pyogenes and host skeletal muscle recovered contemporaneously from infected nonhuman primates. The in vivo bacterial transcriptome was strikingly remodeled compared to organisms grown in vitro, with significant upregulation of genes contributing to virulence and altered regulation of metabolic genes. The transcriptome of muscle tissue from infected nonhuman primates (NHPs) differed significantly from that of mock-infected animals, due in part to substantial changes in genes contributing to inflammation and host defense processes. We discovered significant positive correlations between group A streptococcus (GAS) virulence factor transcripts and genes involved in the host immune response and inflammation. We also discovered significant correlations between the magnitude of bacterial virulence gene expression in vivo and pathogen fitness, as assessed by previously conducted genome-wide transposon-directed insertion site sequencing (TraDIS). By integrating the bacterial RNA-seq data with the fitness data generated by TraDIS, we discovered five new pathogen genes, namely, S. pyogenes 0281 (Spy0281 [dahA]), ihk-irr, slr, isp, and ciaH, that contribute to necrotizing myositis and confirmed these findings using isogenic deletion-mutant strains. Taken together, our study results provide rich new information about the molecular events occurring in severe invasive infection of primate skeletal muscle that has extensive translational research implications.IMPORTANCE Necrotizing myositis caused by Streptococcus pyogenes has high morbidity and mortality rates and relatively few successful therapeutic options. In addition, there is no licensed human S. pyogenes vaccine. To gain enhanced understanding of the molecular basis of this infection, we employed a multidimensional analysis strategy that included dual RNA-seq and other data derived from experimental infection of nonhuman primates. The data were used to target five streptococcal genes for pathogenesis research, resulting in the unambiguous demonstration that these genes contribute to pathogen-host molecular interactions in necrotizing infections. We exploited fitness data derived from a recently conducted genome-wide transposon mutagenesis study to discover significant correlation between the magnitude of bacterial virulence gene expression in vivo and pathogen fitness. Collectively, our findings have significant implications for translational research, potentially including vaccine efforts.

Genome-wide epistasis and co-selection study using mutual information

Covariance-based discovery of polymorphisms under co-selective pressure or epistasis has received considerable recent attention in population genomics. Both statistical modeling of the population level covariation of alleles across the chromosome and model-free testing of dependencies between pairs of polymorphisms have been shown to successfully uncover patterns of selection in bacterial populations. Here we introduce a model-free method, SpydrPick, whose computational efficiency enables analysis at the scale of pan-genomes of many bacteria. SpydrPick incorporates an efficient correction for population structure, which adjusts for the phylogenetic signal in the data without requiring an explicit phylogenetic tree. We also introduce a new type of visualization of the results similar to the Manhattan plots used in genome-wide association studies, which enables rapid exploration of the identified signals of co-evolution. Simulations demonstrate the usefulness of our method and give some insight to when this type of analysis is most likely to be successful. Application of the method to large population genomic datasets of two major human pathogens, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis, revealed both previously identified and novel putative targets of co-selection related to virulence and antibiotic resistance, highlighting the potential of this approach to drive molecular discoveries, even in the absence of phenotypic data.

A Bayesian Decision-Support Tool for Child Sexual Abuse Assessment and Investigation

In assessments of child sexual abuse (CSA) allegations, informative background information is often overlooked or not used properly. We therefore created and tested an instrument that uses accessible background information to calculate the probability of a child being a CSA victim that can be used as a starting point in the following investigation. Studying 903 demographic and socioeconomic variables from over 11,000 Finnish children, we identified 42 features related to CSA. Using Bayesian logic to calculate the probability of abuse, our instrument-the Finnish Investigative Instrument of Child Sexual Abuse (FICSA)-has two separate profiles for boys and girls. A cross-validation procedure suggested excellent diagnostic utility (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.97 for boys and AUC = 0.88 for girls). We conclude that the presented method can be useful in forensic assessments of CSA allegations by adding a reliable statistical approach to considering background information, and to support clinical decision making and guide investigative efforts.

Disease-associated genotypes of the commensal skin bacterium Staphylococcus epidermidis

Some of the most common infectious diseases are caused by bacteria that naturally colonise humans asymptomatically. Combating these opportunistic pathogens requires an understanding of the traits that differentiate infecting strains from harmless relatives. Staphylococcus epidermidis is carried asymptomatically on the skin and mucous membranes of virtually all humans but is a major cause of nosocomial infection associated with invasive procedures. Here we address the underlying evolutionary mechanisms of opportunistic pathogenicity by combining pangenome-wide association studies and laboratory microbiology to compare S. epidermidis from bloodstream and wound infections and asymptomatic carriage. We identify 61 genes containing infection-associated genetic elements (k-mers) that correlate with in vitro variation in known pathogenicity traits (biofilm formation, cell toxicity, interleukin-8 production, methicillin resistance). Horizontal gene transfer spreads these elements, allowing divergent clones to cause infection. Finally, Random Forest model prediction of disease status (carriage vs. infection) identifies pathogenicity elements in 415 S. epidermidis isolates with 80% accuracy, demonstrating the potential for identifying risk genotypes pre-operatively.

SuperDCA for genome-wide epistasis analysis

The potential for genome-wide modelling of epistasis has recently surfaced given the possibility of sequencing densely sampled populations and the emerging families of statistical interaction models. Direct coupling analysis (DCA) has previously been shown to yield valuable predictions for single protein structures, and has recently been extended to genome-wide analysis of bacteria, identifying novel interactions in the co-evolution between resistance, virulence and core genome elements. However, earlier computational DCA methods have not been scalable to enable model fitting simultaneously to 10⁴-10⁵ polymorphisms, representing the amount of core genomic variation observed in analyses of many bacterial species. Here, we introduce a novel inference method (SuperDCA) that employs a new scoring principle, efficient parallelization, optimization and filtering on phylogenetic information to achieve scalability for up to 10⁵ polymorphisms. Using two large population samples of Streptococcus pneumoniae, we demonstrate the ability of SuperDCA to make additional significant biological findings about this major human pathogen. We also show that our method can uncover signals of selection that are not detectable by genome-wide association analysis, even though our analysis does not require phenotypic measurements. SuperDCA, thus, holds considerable potential in building understanding about numerous organisms at a systems biological level.